Radar plots are not milimeter accurate - apparent sharp movements could simply indicate sections of the aircraft being out of control during or following a very rapid break-up. No conclusions can be drawn about it being anything to do with the cockpit crew.

rideforever, give this thing a little more time to unravel. We'll get there eventually.


If we stick with the known facts as they come in, then the cone of speculation can be advanced and restricted. At the moment there are so many possible reasons for a plane to describe such uncharacteristic movements, that percentages and likelihoods are going to vary radically with each commentator here.

Most probable reason for such data is trying to draw a curve through random, scattered points created by pieces of debris flashin up on the radar on their way down...

Someone mentioned "kumbi" earlier.... Oh how I don't miss the nightmare that is the terrible RT by the Egyptians in this area, if they managed to get a call out of any nature odds are Egyptian RT will have ignored it or someone else stepped on it, Egyptian RT has IMHO been an accident waiting to happen for some time, this may not be attributable in this incident but I pity and investigators listing to Egyptian RT tapes, it must be a form of torture !

Will be interesting to see if once they checked in if they were given any clearance to change level, as in the barometric change theory posted earlier.

Russia - yes, since Metrojet crash

I'm quite convinced that there was no fireball. History is littered with examples of people seeing flames when they never did. In fact, a rig worker claimed to have seen a fireball in the sky when MH370 went missing when in fact the plane was hundred of miles away. When the track of the jet proved it was nowhere near, the fireball sightings were quickly forgotten.

The video I have seen is clearly space junk burning up.

My thoughts go out to those involved. Whilst it's easy to jump to the terrorism or deliberate crashing, recent history shows that several fully serviceable planes (both Airbus and Boeing before anyone goes down that route) have come to harm due to handling issues.

Meanwhile 12 hours in and there's still no sign of it. Not acceptable in 2016!

Not seen the video but three satellites passed overhead within 20 minutes of the time when it's reported that contact was lost. None of them see fireballs, smoke trails or anything like that.

Mr Gardner may be jumping the gun a bit in that 0600 comment/twitter quote(??), but he is cited with a more measured analysis that gets at security and "we don't know yet." (I'll side with mockingjay on "fireball?" with MH370 as a reference).
EgyptAir flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo crashed - Hollande - BBC News

I noted on the BBC link that included the sound byte that the French authorities are (reportedly) already investigating the ground crew at CDG.

Sadly, contra the little quote, planes do sometimes "just fall out of the sky." In the not too distant past ... AF 447(upset) Air Indonesia(upset) , Air Algerie(upset), Germanwings(Upset FO, and it flew down rather than fell), Metrojet(bomb?) and so on. But in the larger sense Mr Gardner is correct. Flying is still a very safe way to travel and planes generally don't just fall out of the sky. Embedded in that little bon mot is a core point -- there's a reason for the rare and tragic events like this. Confident that the reason will be found in due course. I heard about this crash on the radio this morning ... plane missing between Paris and Cairo ... seen descending by Greek radar ... (I thought, jumping to a conclusion, shame on me, A320? OCF?) ... later heard it was A320 ... a bit later logged on to PPruNe to see what folks have so far. Thanks for realigning my brain, all and sundry: look at the conclusion I jumped to from a brief radio report? :=

Regarding the posts from folks covering maritime search efforts: thank you.

Originally Posted by DavidReidUK
I don't entirely disagree however, the ADS-B data being received before and after the incident position in the days before the incident are almost entirely from one site either near or on LTFG Gazipasa-Alanya airport on the SW Coast of Turkey. This site is consistently recording ranges of up 260nm which is a good range for ADS-B receivers and easily covers out to the LKP. So in fact there is no blind spot and the flightpath is consistently covered by the LTFG Rx. I agree a precise point cannot be inferred by this especially since there was almost three minutes from the last transmission from the aircraft until Flightawre software began posting estimated positions but, I suggest the Flightaware position is very close.

Suggestions that ADS-B coverage is poor, that its flakey and that it cannot be relied upon are misleading. ADS-B is an important part of the ATC system as another poster has pointed out, but in terms of enthusiast coverage that could be correct except in this case LTFG has this flight route well covered.

MSR804 did not land at its destination. LTFG suddenly stopped tracking. I'm saying there is a very strong correlation between these two events and that the final Flightaware data while not precise, is close.

Debris found.
http://s32.postimg.org/z157vnu81/image.jpg

http://s32.postimg.org/g7jeynw01/image.jpg

http://s32.postimg.org/y7sm31o75/image.jpg

Just like every other major airliner crash, then. Deep breaths...

Did this happen in Egyptian SAR region. If so, its going to be all the more difficult to get any accurate information.

Mo122, do you have a source for this information please? That looks like a liferaft rather than debris.


Edit: According to Twitter, both Greek television and SKy news are reporting debris has been found.

Mo122, sources please.

Crash 'probably a terrorist act' - Russia
 

Quote from BBC Monitoring: EgyptAir Flight MS804 latest updates - BBC News

Saw only 2 ships that made a 90 degree turn and are around 5 knots. The Oceanic and the Jork. Other ships were still 'cruising' through the area though at 10-20 knots. Also no 'special' vessels apparently on their way to the area. Or these have shut down their 'transponders'. Have not seen a restricted area yet. Based on this only, you would not even be able to say that any search was going on.

Best information till now appears to come from the translations of Greek officals statements by ThinkRate (thanks for those, hope you post some more).

Interesting to see the 'usual' statements about fire balls, satellites that should have spotted something, and all-seeing radars.

FR24 gets a lot of criticism, but at this stage it is all the general audience has. You have to be very careful, as some point out, with the interpretation of such data. First is that you have to separate received data from extrapolated data. And also the data it self might be suspect. A few weeks ago i was following a flight over the Java Sea on FR24 which suddenly jumped over to the Indian Ocean ! and took quite a few minutes to jump back. Next to that there are many gaps in coverage. But still, it is much better than nothing.

@LBCI_News_EN
Missing #Egyptair aircraft debris found south of #Greek island of Karpathos in southern Mediterranean - Greek state TV

Greek state television now reporting that Greek planes taking part in the SAR have spotted debris in the form of "large orange chunks" that are thought to belong to the missing plane. Similar reports are coming from the Greek SAR Coordination Center and the Hellenic Coastguard. The MOD has not yet confirmed the report.

Edited to include Hellenic CAA statement, which just confirms times and actions (all times local, Greek local time is UTC+3):
0224: entry into Athinai FIR
0248: handoff to next Athinai sector and clearance for exit point. The pilot was cheerful and thanked ATC in Greek.
0327: ACC tries to contact the plane for handoff information to Cairo ACC. Plane non-responsive, call is repeated on emergency freq.
0329: Plane crosses the FIR exit point
032940: Plane trace lost, approx 7nm SSE of KUMBI, within Cairo FIR. Military radar raised, negative return.
0345: SAR activated, Cairo notified.

If I understood correctly, Mo122 is on board Maersk Ahram in the search area, and the photos are his. The only poster here who has access to authentic and reliable information. Thanks Mo for sharing.

Sources captain on board ahram maersk