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-   -   Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/553569-air-asia-indonesia-lost-contact-surabaya-singapore.html)

Australopithecus 7th Jan 2015 08:50

That paint scrape looks more like a kink line where the paint popped off. You see that in buckled skin after impact deformation.

captains_log 7th Jan 2015 09:24

I agree with Sir Richard thats seaweed not scrapes..

http://www.3ch.co.uk/grow-wiki/wp-co...pg-194x300.jpg

bobdxb 7th Jan 2015 09:37

@Australopithecus
 
you are 100% correct, paint went off due mechanical force (xtreme bending)...seaweeds?? at 30 mtrs or so??

Ian W 7th Jan 2015 09:42


Originally Posted by scard08 (Post 8813777)
Calculating the speed based on adjacent ADS-B data points will not work. The data is just not precise enough to do this. Suppose that second data point was actually received at 23:11:00.999. If it had been received a thousandth of a second later then it would be timestamped a second later and the first delta t would have been 4 seconds instead of 3 and the second would be 3 seconds instead of 4. That would change the caclulated speeds by about 1/3, which is a couple of hundred knots.

A similar but smaller problem comes from the precision in the coordinates. If the delta in the latitude is .004 in one 3 second interval and .005 in the next, that does not mean the speed changed by 25%.

ADS-B data carries the time at which the aircraft generated that GPS position. So it does not matter when that was received as each ADS-B report is perfectly valid. This is to ensure that delays in transmission do not cause the errors you describe.

The problem the receiving system has is that these reports do not come in with the same delay each time, especially if the receiving system is using several remote antennae or even several different receiving stations. This can result in position reports coming in at random intervals and in extreme cases out of order. This is why it is important to use the original data from the aircraft which will carry the timestamp of the GPS position. It is not clear that FR24 and other services do this.

multycpl 7th Jan 2015 09:44

If you click onto the posted link and not look at the posted pictures, its a lot clearer to see that its missing paint.


http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1227177443383

Ian W 7th Jan 2015 09:50


Originally Posted by Phalanger (Post 8813802)
Propduffer, you have not got enough significant figures in either the times or coordinates to make the speed assumptions you have given (remember you are calculation movement across the globe from these figures, not straight knots). In addition you have assumed a linear path in two dimensions. There is no way your figures are near correct.

RNP and all trajectory based systems are based on ground speed. The calculations from ADS-B position report time of generation (in each ADS-B position report) can be used to create ground speed. If you want airspeed that is also within the body of the ADS-B report.

Problem is FR24 does not give access to the actual ADS-B reports.

ana1936 7th Jan 2015 09:56

Flightradar24 data is from plane
 
The data provided by Flightradar24 here is the actual ADS-B data sent by the plane

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/st...69337023840256

The timestamps are from the aircraft. It does not matter how long it took to be received, or by whom, or in what order.

Ian W 7th Jan 2015 10:00


Originally Posted by Propduffer (Post 8813960)
Although I don't know the location or the type of radar that "Tracked" QZ8501 I don't believe it possible for even heavy rain to attenuate the return from either passive or primary radar.

Secondary radar is not normally attenuated by rain but primary radar is always attenuated by rain. The shorter the wavelength the more attenuation. An ATC radar of the order of 10cm can be close on completely useless in heavy rain despite technical mitigations.

mcloaked 7th Jan 2015 10:34

There is some interesting data in the report at http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flig...nal.report.pdf where on pages 12 and 13 it would seem that locating and recovering the CVR and FDR within a few days is the exception rather than the norm. So recovery of these items for the current accident flight in the next few days would be within the normal time range.

Dont Hang Up 7th Jan 2015 10:41


The data provided by Flightradar24 here is the actual ADS-B data sent by the plane

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/st...69337023840256

The timestamps are from the aircraft. It does not matter how long it took to be received, or by whom, or in what order.
ADS-B from the SSR Transponder is not time stamped by the aircraft. The receiving station adds the time stamp. There is a mechanism for allowing the receiving station to compensate for various latencies in the aircraft system (known as the T-bit). However this is seldom implemented in current installations. Consequently velocity calculations from the ADS-B position reports alone should not be considered reliable. HOWEVER ADS-B does transmit the aircraft's own calculated velocity (usually ground speed) at the same rate that it transmits position (twice per second). This velocity should be considered perfectly reliable but I am not sure if Flight Radar carries the velocity component.

slats11 7th Jan 2015 10:44

Hopefully the data recorders are preserved in the tail.

Can anyone advise the origin of the altitude recorded on the FDR. Pressure only? Or GPS also?

Maybe I am missing something, but it all seems a bit unsatisfactory. We measure a pressure using ports that are subject to problems such as icing. We then take this pressure and derive a flight level based on 1013. However if ambient temp or pressure was to change as you enter a cell (and the chaotic winds within a cell are due to pressure differentials), this would distort any change in FL that was being measured.

I never quite understood this when we got the data for AF447. Obviously there were significant altitude excursions during the upset. But to what extent were there measured excursions corrupted by sudden pressure (or temp) changes.I recall AF447 pilots noted a dramatic increase in OAT shortly before it all went wrong.

Furthermore, could a perceived change in FL cause the automatics to respond so as to correct this, and could this compound the problems due to pitot tube freezing and loss of valid airspeed.

There seem to be a lot of links in the chain between what we measure and what we derive from it.

physicus 7th Jan 2015 10:56

ADS-B messages, for reasons I have never understood, do not carry a timestamp, nor any other unique identifier apart from the sender airframe hex code.

FR24, openatc, or any other ADS-B receiving network therefore does not possess any reliable way to discount duplicated messages received from their remote feeders.

AirScotia 7th Jan 2015 11:20

If what they've found is upside down, does this mean that the main part of the fin has knifed itself into the mud? Could this make it even harder to retrieve?

Can anyone identify which parts we're looking at in the photo of what looks to be internal workings of the tail?

ana1936 7th Jan 2015 11:34

Timing of ADS-B messages
 
Physicus

Yes, you are correct and I was wrong. ADS-B messages do not have to contain timestamps and mostly do not. However, it is possible to include them along with any other extra pieces of information in optional parts of broadcasts.

The timestamps are added by the (very accurately timed) receiving stations for FR24 usually.

However, for the purposes of the last minute of the (recorded) broadcasts from QR8051, there are no repeat positions (except for the last two which we are ignoring). Thus it is safe to assume that there is just one ground station responsible for the timestamps.

Given the speed of light (meaning that time received is less than one millisecond from time broadcast), we can use the timestamps given as being perfectly accurate, even down to the millisecond. That is as far as calculating positions is concerned.

mcloaked 7th Jan 2015 12:03

@AirScotia "Can anyone identify which parts we're looking at in the photo of what looks to be internal workings of the tail?"

Does this image help: http://www.flightglobal.com/airspace...il-cutaway.jpg

AirScotia 7th Jan 2015 12:09

'Black box must be read in Indonesia,' says Minister for Maritime Affairs.

QZ8501: Blackbox Must Be Read In Indonesia, Says Minister

Does Indonesia have the technical resources to deal with the FDR/ CVR? I assumed they'd send them to Australia.

fireflybob 7th Jan 2015 12:14


'Black box must be read in Indonesia,' says Minister for Maritime Affairs.
That statement makes me feel uneasy...

ex_matelot 7th Jan 2015 12:16

Gen question - What band radar / freq / prf are onboard weather radars using?
Can they be switched from hi to lo gain for eg?

Lost in Saigon 7th Jan 2015 12:18


Originally Posted by multycpl (Post 8814231)
If you click onto the posted link and not look at the posted pictures, its a lot clearer to see that its missing paint.


AirAsia Flight QZ8501 plane tail confirmed found

Here is another link to a larger sized photo: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/newscm...7106c6972c.JPG

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17...to15/tail2.jpg

Blake777 7th Jan 2015 12:35

Channel News Asia live blog reporting that authorities say tail section identified is 10 metres in length and relatively intact. They are therefore hopeful of the possibility of recovering "black box". Earlier "a signal" had been detected from tail section but could not be re detected later.

SAR efforts continuing as of 2043 (GMT + 7).


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