Robin Clark, I think you are misinterpreting the Doppler effect. The numbers show a frequency offset. So when the satellite and the aeroplane are moving towards each other, the frequency is shifted up. If they move away from each other, the frequency is shifted down. However, the vertical component of the relative aircraft-satellite movement will be negligible compared to horizontal component. Just think about the relative magnitudes of descent rate and ground speed.

Mind you, it might still be possible to detect an ascent or descent in the data - after all, frequency can be measured quite accurately.

Armenia
 

According to everyone but GeoResonance, the Armenia has not been located.

Some good discussion about GeoResonance can be found here, the strongest point being the impossibility of detecting fuel - still in the wings - through an aluminum skin that far underwater.

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/dub...nd-mh370.3558/

Very strange indeed.

Not strange at all, think of all the free publicity they have gotten.

Just had a look.

You've got to give these clowns 10 out of 10 for shear front. Slick web site, clever technology phraseology. The fact that anyone with O level physics can see at a glance it's utter b******s just proves there are a lot of gullible folks out there.

It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Indeed.
Altitude variation will have negligeable effect compared to direction variation.
What strikes me is the spike around 18:25 in the actual values which is missing in the simulations. Did they not try to re- model and re-fly the actual track based also on the Radar data they have?
To me it seems not, which would have been a mistake IMHO.
Because due to the resulting positional variance this course change will have consequences on the relation of course flown and Doppler reading during the subsequent phases of the flight. By flying the same path/positions in the first stage, the direction of the flight could be more exactly derived in the latter stage by comparing the steepness of the Doppler change. This steepness will correspond to a combination of speed and course. At the same time speed and course are related to each other via the time distance between crossing the arcs.
Due to this double relationship you could theoretically narrow down the possible combinations significantly.
That would have given an important further data point for narrowing the search Location.
Would it be thus worth to do another re-fly of the whole flight path based on all the data they have now and then let the boffins re-calculate based on this?

Aluminum and Titanium.
 

Looking at the GeoResonance "presentations", I wonder, how can a scan for titanium have a larger area and be more intense than that for aluminum? A B772 is 70% Al and only 7% Ti by weight. While aluminum covers most of the aircraft structure, titanium is located at strategic locations such as engines, landing gear, ducting, and is used as shimming material to prevent "potential" between aluminum and CFRP (e.g. prevent the risk of galvanic corrosion of aluminum).

https://au.news.yahoo.com/sa/a/23036...e-found-mh370/

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/~jps7/A...0materials.pdf

OK, this story now has everything.

:E

Ping arc data modelling update
 

Following the post yesterday on the new satellite elevation graph, I have modelled a course with constant rate of turn that ends at the final search box, and which fits the elevation graph. As stated yesterday, a great circle course at constant speed leads to the original search area.

In this work I fitted the start point (lat, long), original heading, change of heading per hour and the (constant) speed, and of course the satellite elevation data. I have fitted the 19:41 to 00:11UT elevation data. The fit is shown below.

Best Fit To The Satellite Elevations Released 29-Apr-14 And The Final Search Box Photo by RichardC10 | Photobucket

Some notes:
1. The best fit was a change of -10degrees/hour, from a start heading of 194.3, speed of 327kt.
2. The yellow point is the fitted course extended back to 18.27UT (the time of the pings previous to 19.41) so this point is not a fit to any data. The green box is the last reported radar position at 18:22UT. The model interpretation only requires that MH370 was established on the white arc of the track before the 19.41UT ping time. The exact route from the green box to the interception point on the white arc is not determined but I have plotted a small sector of the 18:27UT ping arc to show this is consistent.
3. The fit to the elevation data is excellent, r.m.s. error of 0.1degree, which is as good as the data can be read from the published fuzzy image (this may be a sign that the data has been over-fitted – the number of fitted parameters is large).
4. The plotted course is not consistent with an interpretation of the published BFO/Doppler data developed by myself and others. However, Inmarsat have said that their BFO model was ‘fine-tuned’ so it is quite possible (indeed almost certain) that the BFO data changed from the published set.
5. Constant magnetic heading courses to the final search box do not give enough heading change to fit the elevation data.

This graph does not prove that MH370 went to the area of the final search box. Presumably, the authorities used the results of modelling later generations of the BFO and elevation data, and perhaps other data sources. I think the graph does indicate that there is at least one such course (there will be others) that is consistent with the elevation data and hints at the route taken.

Very interesting RichardC10.
How might this path be followed - perhaps by an aircraft in attitude hold with the left wing slightly down?

Thanks, Richard, great work, expected result.
At 327 kts ground speed the aircraft must have flown low.
At FL350 it needs flaps and slats to fly that slow I would guess.
At FL100 could be IAS 300 kts around, depending on wind and OAT.
Or it was circling.

Still unanswered: what had led JACC to assume this the correct route. Is it the doppler data?

Not possible.

Any autopilot mode which would fly anything resembling a straight track over that distance would have to be heading-hold (which would fly a curved track) or flying to/via some programmed waypoints.

The Georesonance stuff is nonsense and this would be immediately obvious to anybody who has got some scienzze edukatttionn. 10/10 for a good prank though.

Preliminary Report
 

According to the National News Agency of Malaysia (BERNAMA) the preliminary report is to be released tomorrow, which given the time difference could well be in just a few hours for anyone on GMT.
It has also been announced that the next phase will be conducted by contractors with a high degree of specialisation for deep sea search operations. Expected costs are said to be in the region of AUD60m. Added to the $44m to date the cost of search is by far the biggest in history.

Talked to a former colleague from Malaysia who I regard as a consummate aviator. He mentioned something very peculiar...investigators are ignoring the report from a NRT bound pilot on MH088 and the initial reports of a distress message intercepted by a listening station at Rayong, to the detriment of the whole saga.

The MH 088 pilot had reported positive contact on 121.5MHz with MH370 pilots who came back with incoherent mumblings and static. The listening station at Rayong-VTBU revealed a distress message about " cabin collapse " with need for immediate landing.

He reckoned that this mysterious episode would eventually turned out to be a mind-blowing paradigm shifting occurrence which will be VERY CONFRONTING AND CHALLENGING. He personally knows the captain of MH370 and " knows " that what happened, is certainly beyond the comprehension of many just like the " adventures of Admiral Byrd ". Hope this survives the cull.

"cabin disintegrating"
 

I've raised this once before.
Early on there was a report from a Chinese News Service that a US Naval Station at Utapao heard a distress call with the details you mentioned.
The person who posted it said it was being discussed on some military internet.
The story has not been followed up on, and at least one person suggested it was discounted because of the Chinese news service connection.

Surely if the cabin had structurally collapsed, it would be unusual for the airframe to produce about another 5 hours of geographically separated 'pings'?

@ gleneagles

Would you care to elaborate a bit on what you are implying with your final paragraph about minds being blown and paradigms being shifted? I'm not sure I quite caught what you were trying to convey there...But very interested, as I have had the thinking ever since this event began that crucial information was being withheld that would eventually become released one way or another.

Pardon my scepticism, I give next to zero credence to this piece of news.

I am well aware that the " cabin collapse " thingy cannot be reconciled with later reports of satellite pings. However the " cabin collapse " was only a perception...something very abnormal and odd happened as the erratic movements of MH370 both laterally and vertically indicated struggles and difficulties. I am pretty certain the pilots were completely befuddled at what had happened to their aircraft.

The satellite signatures certainly indicated that the aircraft survived the initial phenomenon and continued flight to some unknown location. The pilot's/pilots' reactions in the form of incoherent mumblings and " cabin disintegration " distress call suggest a stunned and uncoordinated response to whatever difficulties that plagued them...it didn't indicate they crashed or disintegrated.

We have all been thinking linearly. That former Malaysian colleague suggested against linear logical deduction the way the establishments are pursuing or want us to pursue. Be aware of the assets available in that region due to the Cobra Gold - Cope Tiger exercises. I believe that FIR prior to MH370's mysterious behavior is technically within WSJC jurisdiction but for practical reasons, aircrafts are handled between Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh.

The muddled misinformation or disinformation throughout are due to geo-political considerations amongst the participants of Cobra Gold - Cope Tiger. Kayej1188...I am afraid we need to leave it as it is. Going further will be venturing into the realm of the " woo woo " world as my Malaysian friend opined.

I am sorry but you may not be thinking linearly, but you certainly are not logical. 121.5 is monitored by many many people, agencies and aircraft including the press who 0routinely listen to it,. Yet the claim is that only one aircraft heard the transmission despite MH 370 being at FL 350. That is patent nonsense.

wouldn't that 121.5 call be on tape at rayong.