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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

Lost in Saigon 17th Mar 2014 11:37


Originally Posted by Ian W (Post 8382803)
Perhaps you should read the FANS Operations Manual. If a waypoint is inserted and activated in the active route a Waypoint Change Event Report is triggered in ACARS.

Thanks for the suggestion. The FANS Operations Manual makes for interesting reading. Way more info than we get in our regular training. It looks like whoever programmed the turn didn't know about it either, and it likely triggered the last ACARS transmission.

http://overlookci.com/files/Download...n%206-0%20.pdf



6.2.2 The event contract
An event contract specifies a request for reports to be transmitted by the aircraft whenever a defined “event”
occurs. Only one event contract can be established between a ground system and a particular aircraft at any one
time, however the event contract can contain multiple event types.

Note that multiple ATSUs with ADS-C connections can each establish their own event contracts with an
aircraft.

Once an event contract has been established, it remains in effect until the specific event requests are fulfilled, or
it is cancelled by the ground system.

The Vertical Rate Change Event is triggered when the aircraft’s vertical rate is either less than or greater than
a parameter defined in the contract.

The Lateral Deviation Change Event is triggered when the aircraft’s actual position exceeds a lateral distance
parameter from the aircraft’s expected position on the active flight plan.

The Altitude Range Change Event is triggered when the aircraft’s altitude exceeds the altitude ceiling or floor
defined in the contract by the ground system.

Once a vertical rate change, lateral deviation change, or altitude range event trigger has occurred, a recurrence
of this event no longer triggers an event report. The ground system must initiate a new event contract every time
that one of these specific events occurs.

The Waypoint Change Event is triggered by a change to the next or the next-plus-one waypoints. Such a
change normally occurs due to routine waypoint sequencing. However, it will also be triggered by occurrences
such as a change to a non-ATS waypoint entered by the pilot for operational reasons, or execution of a new
route affecting the next or next-plus-one waypoints. Unlike the other event contracts, the waypoint change
event
trigger remains in effect for all waypoint changes.


6.3.3 Flight crew modification of active route
The flight crew will often insert non-ATS waypoints into the active flight plan in the FMS for flight system monitoring, or will modify the active route for planning purposes. Once the change is activated, a Waypoint Change Event report may be triggered. If so, non-ATS waypoints included in the active flight plan will be reflected in the Predicted Route Group, as well as the Intermediate and Fixed Projected Intent Groups, which may result in the next, or the next-plus-one waypoints from the report not being waypoints expected in the ATS flight plan or flight data record.

sandos 17th Mar 2014 11:38


Originally Posted by petervee (Post 8382923)
Before too much time passes, the best way to find MH370 (if it hasn't crashed) is to take advantage of passengers' cellphones. If you place a cellphone base station on a flight, and beam the signal down to earth, as the plane flies over, passenger's cellphones will connect to the "network" giving away their location. Can be done quickly.

This is actually a neat idea for over-land searches!

Space Jet 17th Mar 2014 11:38

Few tonnes of mangosteens in the cargo?

Well if it has landed somewhere remote and the pax are still alive at least there is food!

StormyKnight 17th Mar 2014 11:38

From todays press conference, the estimated fuel after the last ping was 30 minutes....

They did not explain how they came to that number considering they do not known the altitude or speed of the track it took to get to the last ping point.

I believe it is an estimate & it could also be an average since the shortest time after the last ping to flight end would be 1 minute & the longest 59 minutes.*

* assuming 1hr pings (has this been confirmed?)

Golf-Mike-Mike 17th Mar 2014 11:40


Originally Posted by catch21 (Post 8382962)
The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy... Maybe he simply wanted to generate an interest in aviation in his children?

I thought it had already been reported here a while back that he was doing some work for the flight sim software development company (PMDG?)

Pontius Navigator 17th Mar 2014 11:41

There have been many statements that the two pilots did not ask to be on the same flight.

There have also been musing as to why the aircraft turned back to the west if the intention was to go west why not take an aircraft that we routed to the west.

Is it possible that the two pilots took the opportunity presented when chance scheduled them on the same flight? That the flight was scheduled for the wrong direction would account for the turn back.

Against this is the appearance of evasive routing to avoid or confuse detection.

So, had the two pilots flown together before? Had they flown this sector before? When were they scheduled for this flight?

We know the Captain was probably fatigued following his activities before the flight; what about the FO? Was he properly rested and might he have been the PIC?

This appears to suggest one or other pilot was to blame but I don't think these questions have been posed or answered, especially given that initial positive statement that they didn't ask to fly that sector.

Token Bird 17th Mar 2014 11:42

It is indeed frustrating that they haven't published the arcs generated by any pings except for the final one.

I notice that now they consider the primary contact that was picked up by Malaysian military radar to have definitely have been MH370. It is now being labelled on maps in the media as 'last radar contact'.

What led them to believe that this contact was definitely MH370 and not just probably MH370? Are we to assume that the arcs from the intermediate pings confirm this?

Curious as is it not possible that the aircraft went straight from its last known secondary radar position direct to a point on one of the two arcs generated by the final ping?

Andu 17th Mar 2014 11:44

Am I the only one who thinks that if the 'pilot suicide' line currently in favour by many commentators turns out to false (as I suspect it is), we may well see all airlines forced to adopt what I think is already the El Al system where the pilots are totally isolated from the cabin for the whole flight? (Does El Al allow a small servery hatch for meals, or is everything the pilots require, including food, put in with them before the flight?)

If I'm right, you can see why the airlines are so keen to accept the pilot suicide line, for any such moves will cost a fortune to implement, with precious First Class revenue space lost as the security door is moved aft to incorporate a toilet, a mini galley, and for some airlines - (many of you will know the one I'm talking about) - a pilot rest area.

Can you imagine what that would be like on ultra long haul, with two crews cooped up together for fifteen hours in what I know will be the smallest area the companies can get away with providing?

Flugbegleiter 17th Mar 2014 11:49


Originally Posted by Andu (Post 8382984)
Am I the only one who thinks that if the 'pilot suicide' line currently in favour by many commentators turns out to false (as I suspect it is), we may well see all airlines forced to adopt what I think is already the El Al system where the pilots are totally isolated from the cabin for the whole flight?

I think this would (unfortunately) be a good idea. For someone in the know, you wouldn't need a bomb to get onto the flight deck. Despite the extra security these days, there are still a few holes in the Swiss cheese...

jcjeant 17th Mar 2014 11:52

Hi,

lexoncd

The last words to atc apparently from the co pilot were "All right, good night" some say this was rather casual. It was also several minutes after scars was switched off. Was this an attempt by the pilot to draw attention to something going on in the cockpit? Then major altitude changes 43,000 ft to 25,000.
"It was also several minutes after the ACARS was switched off"
Yes and no!
It's a ACARS send
About 10 minutes later it's the last voice com
As you know the gap between each ACARS sending is 30 minutes so .. you can't know precisely if the last voice com was made after or before ACARS switch off

EngineeringPilot 17th Mar 2014 11:52

@StormyKnight


* assuming 1hr pings (has this been confirmed?)
Yes, 1hr interval pings have been confirmed.

EngineeringPilot 17th Mar 2014 11:57


Am I the only one who thinks that if the 'pilot suicide' line currently in favour by many commentators turns out to false (as I suspect it is), we may well see all airlines forced to adopt what I think is already the El Al system where the pilots are totally isolated from the cabin for the whole flight? (Does El Al allow a small servery hatch for meals, or is everything the pilots require, including food, put in with them before the flight?)
If this happens, God help us all! I'm pretty sure FAA will come up with another idea though, as locking up the pilot and co-pilot together in a box for a 12hr flight, while being in charge of the aircraft and everyone on board, is simply inhumane.

Golf-Mike-Mike 17th Mar 2014 12:02

@PA28Viking

"...all three types of transmission could have stopped/been disabled at the same time due to human action or technical malfunction"


I believe the authorities have said/implied that they know that "ACARS was disabled by someone on board" and readers here have suggested that's because it did a tidy "log-off", which itself sends out a transmission, rather than suddenly stopping transmissions. But (I think) you're right in saying that all 3 of comms, xpdr and ACARS could have been disabled at the same time at or around the FIR boundary

Captain Charisma 17th Mar 2014 12:04

@Lord Spandex Masher

Correct TCAS does not display direction of travel per se, it does however show the position of the other aircraft relative to yourself.
Hopefully a TCAS is that accurate otherwise the sole purpose of its use is for naught.

sky9 17th Mar 2014 12:06

"Malaysia Airlines revealed the plane’s co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, was the last person to communicate to the ground from the cockpit, apparently after the communications system was shut off."

Yancey Slide 17th Mar 2014 12:06


I thought it had already been reported here a while back that he was doing some work for the flight sim software development company (PMDG?)
PMDG has said this is not correct.
PMDG Simulations Comments on the loss of MH 370 - PMDG General Forum - The AVSIM Community

DADDY-OH! 17th Mar 2014 12:09

FE Hoppy

What is the elapsed time from the last known position (Malaysian/Vietnamese FIR boundary) to the nearest point on the 'arc inducing, satellite-based ping'?

What is the distance from the last known position (Malaysian/Vietnamese FIR boundary) to the nearest point on the 'arc inducing, satellite-based ping'?

Do the facts suggest that the aircraft 'flew in a circle'?
If the flight crew, a member of it or a knowledgable intruder into the flight deck were trying to make the aircraft 'disappear', why would they fly around in circles inside airspace that has SSR & Primary radar capability? Isn't the airspace around there fairly busy at that time of night?

The flight had NO crew-actioned communication whatsoever, post the 'Goodnight' sign off at handover. The transponder & ACARS were manually selected OFF. If the aircraft had a bonafide emergency, the crew still had 2 or 3 VHF radios & probably a pair of HF radios & maybe even a SATPHONE on the flight deck, depending on the MAS fit, in order to communicate a problem. Lots of communications methods available, none were utilised.

PA28Viking 17th Mar 2014 12:10

It was clarified at the press conference today, that they do not know when the ACARS was turn off/stopped. They only know that the last transmission was at 17.07 and that the next transmission expected 17.37 never happened.

rgbrock1 17th Mar 2014 12:13

As many others, I am thoroughly perplexed by this whole incident. Some of the questions is my mind are:

1. If this was a case of pilot suicide (which I personally highly doubt) why would he have gone through the bother of shutting comms systems down and taken another course instead of simply ditching the plane as soon as possible?

2. If this was a case of a hijacking this would also be highly unusual in that hijackers usually want to make some sort of statement and have their demands met.

3. If this was a case of mechanical failure then why did the aircraft 'ping' a satellite(s) hours later?

4. If this was a case of cabin depressurization, and resulting hypoxia, then the aircraft would not have been able to be turned around to another flight path?

5. Why would anyone fly the aircraft to 45,000'? What purpose would this serve other than "ridding" the aircraft of coherent, or semi-coherent, passengers?

I'm sure there are several other questions I'm not asking.

However, having said all that and this is just my own feelings on this issue: I wonder if the aircraft and passengers landed somewhere else and was refueled to await "further orders"?? I know this scenario is a bit "out there" but......

Lord Spandex Masher 17th Mar 2014 12:14


Originally Posted by Captain Charisma (Post 8383022)
@Lord Spandex Masher

Correct TCAS does not display direction of travel per se, it does however show the position of the other aircraft relative to yourself.
Hopefully a TCAS is that accurate otherwise the sole purpose of its use is for naught.

Yes it'll give you a rough indication of other aircraft positions but it's sole purpose is to provide vertical separation/guidance. It is notoriously inaccurate laterally and certainly not good enough for interception and that's not even counting it's extremely limited range.

I guess that's why fighters have expensive radar kits as opposed to TCAS.


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