Inmarsat downlink and uplink is probably the most surveiled band of every spy agency and .gov satelite operator in the world. Hard to believe that they can not determine if the last ping came from the northern or southern range of the 40 degrees arc. Somehow it looks as there is a vested interest from some parties that the plane is not found quick.

Doppler from multiple geostationary sats would give you derived heading, speed and possibly location. It's how the Americans tracked Sputnik.

Waypoints
 

By following waypoints it could make it look like a valid commercial flight, but with a failed transponder, so minimising chances of a hostile interception???

OK, I know I don't know what I am talking about.

We seem to have two possible scenarios.
1. Go South - and presumably crash into deep south Indian Ocean where it may never be found.
2. Go North. Could crash, but more lily to be found. Could possibly also land plane for a future purpose, but only if there was a skilled pilot involved.

If it was the Captain, you would have to figure he realised he would be tracked. Perhaps not in real time in the middle of the night. But it would become clear over subsequent days.

So if the plan was to land (i.e. north), why go to the trouble to make clear that he was likely flying? Why specifically draw increased attention to the possibility the plane may have landed, and that getting the plane was the purpose? If the ultimate plan was to get the plane (or the passengers), why deliberately tip off the authorities that this was a possibility? Whoever ultimately wanted the plane would presumably prefer to draw attention away from the landing scenario.

Going South makes more sense to me. If you wanted to strike a blow against your country, having an internal person responsible is probably more devastating than being the innocent victim of terrorists who may come from elsewhere. How do MAS respond to this? If a senior trusted Captain did this, that is a major problem for them. I was talking to a friend in KL tonight. MAS bookings are down and people are cancelling flights.

I feel the plan was to go south. It is a huge ocean down there. It is very deep in parts. Rough seas and remoteness from land will make search very difficult. If you really wanted to hide the plane, that is as good a place as any.

Make it unlikely the plane will be found - not quickly anyway. At the same time, make people feel it was most likely an internal job. This leaves lots of deeply disturbing and unanswered questions. No assurances this couldn't happen again - how do you protect against this?

I believe that would be the most psychologically devastating option. And that is why I believe this is what has happened.

The Chinese have the best hackers, the Americans have the best weapons and the Russians have the best spies. Still the aircraft cannot be located??

and 6 additional hours of straight line flight (after the last radar contact 1.5 hours in) puts them right at the end of the red line (either north or south)
http://i.imgur.com/r7SeoEz.jpg

To clarify reports of possible wreckage (passenger luggage) found by greek ship Elka Athina:

The ship was notified by Indonesian coast guard of possible debris in the Straits of Malacca about 4 hours ahead of its current position (probably observed from aircraft), and was asked to investigate. No sighting of anything as of yet. Given current understanding of last known position, probably another red herring.

Source: Real.gr - ?????? - ???????? ????? ????? ???? ??? ?? Boeing

"That's how the Americans tracked Sputnik". Do you see the flaw with your statement?

Richardgb,

Yes, whilst direction is unknown, it is suggested that the data does have a time stamp allowing the distance to be calculated from emission to reception. The arcs probably designate quite narrow corridors. Logically, arcs can be drawn for all the pings. A calculation of the probable maximum distance that the plane could have flown from the last point recorded should intersect the arc. Likewise, similar plots for the other pings should indicate if the plane was indeed fling approximately straight. This should be more obvious for the southern arcs but should also be possible for the northen.

If you were a Government (or for that matter any NGO) negotiating for the lives of 200+ people I don't think you would be broadcasting the fact. I cannot recall any hostage situation where the public have been provided with a running commentary of the negotiations.

not really. acars system failure alone is not an emergency so they sounded normal without reporting it to ATC - they might wanted to first sort out why that happend , in the next minute things became catastrophic and not time to report ynything more.

@mods : am i blind or was my post with a non james bond explanation deleted ?

Aerobat77
 

Certainly the most reasoned scenario so far.

All this nonsense about terrorists, robbers or suicide pilots all seem to be based on evidence that is at very best sketchy.

1. "The ACARS/Transponder/Comms were disabled deliberately."

There is no evidence for this and there won't be until the aircraft is found and even then, maybe not.

2. "MH370 flew west at FL295 to avoid other traffic."

This altitude is a guess based on primary radar returns which must allow for a +/- 1000ft error which basically eliminates any supposition based on a '500 ft' level.


3. "The aircraft was skillfully flown from waypoint to waypoint carefully avoiding radar cover".

Again, no evidence for this. Data from a handful of 'pings' and some sketchy radar returns do not show any deliberation in the flightpath either to fly waypoints or to avoid radar. The track shown could just as easily be a random event or even wishful thinking on those trying to 'make the line fit'. Constellations don't really exist in space. They are just human attempts to join up the dots.

A catastrophic failure followed by rapid decompression is still the most likely explanation.

VinRouge
 

Just a moment please. Sputnik was a polar-orbiting satellite, not a geostationary one. And the Americans certainly did not have any geostationary satellites in 1957.

You can track polar orbiters from the ground using doppler shift, yes. But the geometrics of a geostationary satellite at 36 000 km listening to a comparatively slow target at 10 km altitude do not allow a significant doppler shift.

The doppler shift method (also used by COSPAS/SARSAT) is based on being able to track a continuous signal while the satellite passes the target. On the first pass you can get the latitude (point of doppler shift changing from approaching to retreating) and after the next satellite pass and a second fix you may calculate the longitude.

None of this is applicable to MH370 and geostationary satellites.

Search on hold????
 

News doing rounds in Indian media that search by Indian ships and aircraft is now on hold TFN due to request by Malay authorities... any more info on this?

@ Uncle Maxwell

Some aircraft are captured by satellite imagery while in flight. See Google Earth latitude 53.916501 longitude -2.789953 for a good example.
If I understand correctly, this sort of imagery comes from satellites in low earth orbit, which means that each point on the ground is captured briefly and intermittently as a satellite passes overhead, so most airborne aircraft are missed.

More and more reports coming out of Greece and now Indonesia of potential luggage debris in the Straits of Malacca that a Greek tanker has been tasked to investigate.

At this point, the probabilities are high that the U.S. government knows more than it is saying, more than it is telling the Malaysians, and probably sharing only with its Echelon partners, the UK and Australia.

There is a reason why the location of all the pings (other than the last) has not yet been publicly released.

Has anything been said about the operating culture in the airline? Or the operating culture by this pilot?

Was it normal for one pilot to have a nap either on the flight deck or in 1st Class? If the captain told the 1st pilot to go take a nap or said he was going to take a nap, would the other have said no?

PS

What were the pilots doing in their off duty period prior to the flight? Resting or active all day?

Henra
The world has changed. Terrorists used to want specific goals. That meant they had to identify themselves (or their demands identified them).

Now it is a broader goal. The goal is to create terror.

No one claimed responsibility for 9/11, nor for various incidents since. Terrorist groups have been held responsible, but they haven't claimed responsibility themselves.

mentions nothing about debris in the Malacca straits or a greek ship
only
and a few other already well known facts