Indian city a target?


https://twitter.com/strobetalbott/st...90319323406337

I don't need to prove anything and there isn't enough factual data to prove anything at all in any case, including how long this aircraft stayed airborne, in which direction it went after last contact and how far into an event it was without the crew being aware, if at all.

Just because the acars and transponder went offline does not necessarily mean the crew must have known, although I'm tipping it wouldn't have been much later when all hell broke loose. I don't see any reason at all why this aircraft could not possibly be within observation range.

You can run with the turnaround theory and pinging satellites, but do we really know that, its equally plausible.

Look again at my map from earlier. Considering the southern option.

http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/~mark/per.../australia.png

Diego Garcia is the dark patch mid-ocean between Thailand and Madagascar.

If the plane reached the red circle (where ping was) by 8:11am (after being near Phuket at 2:15am) then it was within the blue circle by then (time and speed limit).

Thus it was not heading for Diego Garcia, or Africa.

After perhaps rounding Sumatra and turning South, it was headed for Antarctica, due South, or just perhaps French Antarctic Islands, Heard Island or maybe even Perth, or inland Australia.

It is a pity that the Australian radar (white circle) was probably off for the weekend.

givemewings:
"Would you say that would be a 'usual' practice? In my experience I've had engineers 'ride along only twice in more than 6 years- once was an overwater sector and an insurer requirement to prevent unsched overnight in an unfavorable port... the other was an empty ferry sector."


I haven't seen it done in a US airline, but I've seen it elsewhere. For instance, I was on a 737 flight in Argentina, and there was the technician, in airline coveralls, in view of passengers, with a panel open and screwdriver out. The aircraft would make sudden maneuvers, each time he'd stick the screwdriver into the panel. Everyone would gasp. Of course, it was just coincidence. The sudden maneuvers were just the pilot thinking he was still in his Mirage fighter from his Falkland Island War days.

Can any ATS people say when the SAR Phases were declared and by whom ?

Sunday is a normal work day for them.

weekend is Friday and Sat.

OTHR - Australian and Diego Garcia JORN Range Revisited
 

Post #4280 refers to Communicator's post #4062, but quotes someone else's contribution. (See details below.)

In substance, everyone seems to be on the same page - JORN's public statements no doubt understate the system's actual capabilities. The Soviet term dezinformaciya seems a tad harsh to characterize strategic modesty by a trusted and trustworthy ally.

U.S. facilities on Diego Garcia, to say nothing of airborne and space based assets are probably much more powerful.

The gist of Communicator's earlier #4062 is that JORN in Australia publicly admits to 1,000 - 3,000 km for their OTHR system, implying that actual range may be rather wider.

===============

Saturday and Sunday is weekend in most parts incl capital. Some parts Friday and Saturday. Get your facts right.

This is not true. Sunday is an off day and part of the weekend, except for a few states ( only in the states of Johor, Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah ).

Subang / KLIA are in an unaffected state / Territory.

Workweek and weekend - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Folks,
Based on answers to a "Question without Notice" in the Australian Commonwealth Parliament some time in 2013 ( as I recall) Jindalee does not work H24, so it would be very lucky if its restricted operations hours coincided with this occurrence.
Jindalee would certainly have been able to track the target well into the Indian Ocean, and well towards the surface, if it was in range.
Tootle pip!!

The route taken by the B777 could have been carefully planned to avoid Singapore airspace. An unidentified aircraft would have been detected and intercepted very quickly, as someone trying to sneak through in a Cessna Caravan a few years ago discovered.

Misc. Thoughts
 

1. Malaysian politics is turbulent and corrupt, but generally not violent.

2. The trustworthiness of Malaysia's current government is not beyond doubt in light of what has emerged in connection with MH370. (See, for example, this interesting discovery by D.S.)

Given that the captain was reported to be a vocal supporter of Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, "official" statements concerning the (now absent) captain should be treated with great caution and checked closely for factual backup.

Anwar Ibrahim would decidedly not wish to be associated with any criminal actions by a prominent supporter.

3. There have been many comments about the high level of flying skills exhibited by the hijackers after MH370 lost contact with ATC.

However, going through the best scenarios available at present, hard flying skills involved are minimal. The aircraft went through a few turns and changes of altitude. Indeed, some comments here appear to indicate that the only "flying" that occurred may have been achieved through step-by-step programming of the FMS.

Where the hijackers have exhibited great sophistication is in their ability to evade ATC and various radar systems based on a shrewd understanding of the practical limitations of those systems, likely acquired through extensive observation. However, such knowledge and expertise is by no means confined to professional pilots.

P.S.: There may be only a single hijacker.

SIN
 

RE: The route taken by the B777 could have been carefully planned to avoid Singapore airspace.
Agreed, the SAF will scramble very quickly and are happy to show their strength. But the same goes for India, China and a few others. Also bear in mind Singapore and it's airspace is relatively small.
However I am hopeful the investigators are close to coming to a conclusion. I will hope for the best but fear a long salvage operation.

Since the pilots have now reluctantly been included as hijacking suspects, forensic computer investigators who are extracting data from the captain's flight simulator hard drive may find clues as to MH370's bizarre routing. :suspect:

The New Straits Times is reporting that the Malaysians have flown a 777 on a course to re-enact the likely scenario of MH370 turning west across the Malay peninsula and to see if the same primary radar and satellite data could be reproduced. They are satisfied this is the case.

Next press conference seems to be scheduled to 17:30 MYT (9:30 GMT)

Twitter Source:

@ReutersAero
"Next press conference 1730 local #MH370"

In addition to security issues, the "cagyness" of the ADF about the range of the Jindalee system is due to the fact that the range varies depending on the atmospheric conditions which dictate the frequencies being used. Throughout the day/night, many different frequencies are used just like in normal HF communications - generally higher freqs in the middle of the day and low freqs in the middle of the night.

Tscottme
 

I'm sure this question will be addressed in the eventual accident report, so a few words from an engineer.

Let's recall that the B777 and its systems design was done in the early 1990s. Electronics and communications systems design has made immense progress since then.

While the above hijack or crash prevention system may be a difficult task, a far easier goal would be to improve the communication and reporting capabilities, as well as the "tamper-proofness" of the airplane so that it would be almost impossible to go invisible the way MH370 did.

For example, it is not that difficult to design a smart circuit breaker which before actually cutting the power instructs a communication device (e.g. ACARS) to send out an alert , for example "I was manually pulled" or "I need to break now due to overcurrent" or even "I'm sensing high overtemp".

Likewise, an "Equipment bay hatch being opened" alert would be a piece-of-cake to implement.

With some careful systems design, the act of "going invisible" would then not be possible without at least an alert message with some details getting out to the outside world. In the MH370 case, it might have been the difference between scrambling primary radar or military interceptors, and the agony the world has experienced last week. Perhaps even the knowledge that "you can't go hiding without announcing it" will discourage anyone from trying.

PS: It is a bit startling to realize that MH370, as it now seems, was just one circuit breaker pull away (Satcom) from full success in its go-hiding maneuver. As this reached the public domain yesterday, it becomes evident that something needs to be done to prevent further attempts.

They have : see 2-b in the last Malaysian government PR