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Contrails
Obviously not the first method that would be looked at in this situation, but is there any merit in looking for contrails in satellite imagery or even (massive undertaking) ground based pictures?
A long shot even if atmospheric conditions right admittedly, but has this been mooted yet? Apologies if yes, searched thread but didn't find anything. |
As I see it. To disable the ACARS, both VHF & Satcom, the aircraft Information System (AIMS) would have to be disabled, 8 circuit breakers on the flight deck, amongst lots of other systems this would take out the FMS so no information to the moving map in the cabin and the flight instrument display system, But the Satcom C/Bs are in the MEC, downstairs, so the satcom would still be logged on to a satellite, (pinging ?), the aircraft could be flown on basic, standby instruments and raw navigation, the ATC transponder c/b's are also on the flight deck so that could also be disabled. That's the how, the why and where I don't know...neither does anyone else apparently??
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The Aftermath
Inevitably the mystery of its disappearance will be resolved and there will be an aftermath, as there always is with similar major events. In the aftermath of the AF447 accident, BEA set up a working group which on
18 November 2011, published their report " Triggered Transmission of Flight Data Working Group ". The report was prompted by the difficulties ( by implication this must include unprecedented costs ) experienced in the recovery of the FDRs. The report which makes salutary reading may be accessed at, http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flig...light.data.pdf The final sentence in the conclusion of this report is reproduced as follows, Consequently, regulators and the industry are invited to conduct further analysis in these 3 areas. The issue is a Global one and it must not be left to a mere invitation to subscribe, it must not be imposed upon an Industry that is already overburdened and drained of resources by unecessary and wasteful bureaucratic regulations. The purpose of Air Accident Investigation mandates expeditious recovery of the wreckage. |
The unthinkable
I have a horrible feeling, and I hope I am wrong, but looking at all the facts I can't help but suspect the involvement of one of the flight crew.
I am a retired investigator, (not in the aircraft industry) and i would have had the pilots and crews houses searched the same day. Furthermore I would be instigating investigations into the background of every other person on the plane and the details of the senders of every item of cargo. |
Honeywell ELT battery??? Anyone??
I have heard so much about ACARS/Inmarsat, Transponder, Voice communications etc, bit NOTHING about the lack of any ELT transmission, not even a blip.
I understand this is possibly a water crash the ELT antenna blocked, but nothing has been discussed or explored. My theory, as weak as it may be is that the ELT battery (which was subject to an AD if it was the Honeywell) could have burned and caused adjacent wiring to burn and cascade into short circuits on adjacent circuits. A small fire such as this could have distracted the flight crew, switching off non-essential circuit breakers including those for the ACARS modem (not the Inmarsat transceiver) and Transponder. Communications with the ground would have been very last thing on their minds apart from setting a return course waypoint. Possibly the smoke became so bad they perished and the fire self extinguished to the point that flight controls and engines were unaffected. The plane flew itself until it ran out of fuel and crashed. Further thoughts. The last radar returns and the last Inmarsat pings are (within some degree of tolerance) possibly co-located. If MH370 ditched in the sea, what of the possibility that the Inmarsat terminal remained powered on battery even though the fuselage was now flotsam? This might explain hours of pinging that was reported. Bear in mind that no reports of pinging at other longitudes have been reported. The plane very well may have been largely intact before submerging which would explain lack of debris field. Furthermore the senior pilot may have been quite skillful and pulled of a nearly successful ditching. I still wonder about the lack of ELT transmission and possibility of it being the fire source or maybe it was submerged. |
Transponders need an off button because like any equipment they can fail. Around a year ago I had a transponder sending an extra false echo which for a few minutes caused confusion with ATC. Switching to standby and resetting the 4 digit code didnt fix it. Recycling it did (thats switching it off and on again). Pilots know to recycle any gear as part of trouble shooting.
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Aisle2c
"Tourist, whatever about the sarcasm, if it helps find the plane (or remnants of) quickly, then it should be done." Why, exactly? It seems to me that avoiding potential future causes of trouble is more important than finding a crash site. Once you are dead, you are dead. Forever. The only time constraint is to spare the families anguish. That is valid, but not as important as avoiding future anguish. |
since every body here is speculating about the fate of this unfortunate
Flight, i would like to highlight the fact that i read some were that this particular 777 in question was recently refurbish including the entertain system on board, now then this is a very complicated task replacing many miles of wire cables and adding more and new connections, wifi on board capabilities were added , this bring us back to the late 90s and the swiss air scenario, totally catastrofic |
Human Factors
'Eliminate all other factors, and the one which remains must be the truth.' MH370 has not been found anywhere near it's last established position because it is not there. It has not been found anywhere else searched because it is not there either. It was not hijacked and there is no conspiracy. There was no devious plot with the crew using a sim. There was no systems wide instrument failure. It did not disintegrate at FL350 or any other level It was not crashed into the sea or a mountain or secretely landed on a well hidden strip on some remote island. Aliens did not abduct the plane, crew and pax for some odd experiement. Vietnam, Laos or any other country did not shoot it down by mistake as part of a new secret weapon test that went wrong. Perhaps the crew and pax went hypoxic but if a planned track west from IGARI WP to VAMPI and multiple others as has been suggested westward then it was hypoxia with intent and a plan. So what if the crew just went dark, turned around and made a track west? You would need a complicit cabin crew and pax for 5+ hours to carry that off. You would need both pilots "in on it". And then there is the motive. In the absence of evidence at this time perhaps that is simply what happened and they ended up very far west deep into the Indian Ocean and ended up in the drink. So the question to ask if such could be possible is what would the flight deck, crew and pax of a servicable aircaft all have to have in common for that whole idea to be viable? Something aboard (no conspiracy of kryptonite) that secreted into the environment aboard and rather like something hallucinogenic simply gives rise to a different level of behaviour? Something that does not alert the pax or crew to any deviation from the flight and for the flight deck to go dark and make a deliberate track west without any malice. It's the hypoxia theory that works in practice with the circumstantial evidence to hand. As has been suggested here, the manifest is one thing but what else was aboard? It does not need to be something of malice just something(s) that in the right set of conditions combine to give "operational paranoid hypoxia". Something that incapacitates the judgement of all souls on board hence no panic to make cell calls or other raising of alarm or trying to take the plane back or anything else for that matter. It just went west in a complict way without malice or plan and ended up down somewhere very far from where SAR assets have been looking. Well Sherlock Holmes would probably have a mind to consider something of the like... |
Inmarsat uses geostationary satellites so if the signals were received by them then triangulation based on signal strength would be impossible at that distance |
Seafloor 'event'
I'm sure you already read this link , btw I think is sadly a lot more realistic than the "Hunt of the Andamane" (more a movie plot to cover technical failure of aircraft).
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Oil slicks in South Chine Sea
I saw the live conference on BBC 1. The Transport minister said 2 oil slicks found near the last point of contact - first had jet fuel but was not from MH370 (not explained how and not questioned by press), the second did not have jet fuel.
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Originally Posted by grayton
(Post 8375867)
Now CNN seems to be pushing a 'lithium batteries did this' theory. Any evidence?
Like the decompression theory, burning Li Ion batteries in the hold cannot explain the aircraft logging off ACARS (not just dropping out) then ten minutes later switching of the transponders, then turning West and flying for another few hours. (Assuming all that information is correct) |
bias
We should be careful not to dismiss a potential line of enquiry simply out of hope & bias; there is denial by some posters here...
Comms black-out No mayday Course deviation Multiple controlled heading changes STD Nav waypoints used Sustained flight far beyond LKP Massive SAR operation No wreckage Evidence of aircraft powered 5 hrs after LKP Before rejecting scenarios involving ill-intent, note the language currently being used by professionals closest to the investigation: "key evidence of human intervention" "an act of piracy" "deliberately flown off course" "nefarious reason" We can hope this isn't what we all suspect it might be, but lets not let our own bias cloud what is looking increasingly like an intentional act of one kind or another... Cheers, Wolf |
re: post 3409 hence setting the Transponder to STBY will stop all this and reason they may think they are going to stop tracking by doing so.
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Spill of water/liquid over the Aft Aisle Stand
A plausible scenario, seen all the circumstances, seems a huge spill of water/liquid over the Aft Aisle Stand where the TCAS+radios (3 VHF/HF?SATELLITE) are located.
"Just in case......the Aft Aisle Stand is just behind the trust levers in the middle of the 2 pilots. If you seat in the jump seat us just in front of you." Any significant liquid spill over the Aft Aisle Stand would: - explain the sudden lost of TCAS why comms ceased - explain why many other downlink data got lost not at the same time. Having heard stories about UFO, landing on a remote island, mid-air collision and stuff, allow me to share some other plausible scenario. At the moment, without trying to speculate because no one has the crystal ball, I do believe this scenario might make sense. The sequence of short circuit, the fumes in the cockpit, the leak of liquid in the lower Electronic compartment, can do the rest.....including shut down all the Equipment Cooling after 30 minutes at that altitude loosing all the CRTs in the cockpit. "Just in case the CRTs are the cathode ray tube where all the data are displayed to the pilots. 777 got 6 of those." At night, with no comms + smoke/fumes in the cockpit and all the CRTs blank there are almost no chances. That is it. Then we can go back to why the Malaysian Government is acting in an awkward way, why international help has not been officially requested yet, bla bla bla. Those reasons are obviously all money/reputation related behaviours. Can't wait to see a solution to all this, because after been flying for 27 years+ really cant figure out what really happened. |
MH370 has not been found anywhere near it's last established position because it is not there. Regards. |
NYTimes reporting American officials have said there were significant changes in altitude at point of last contact. Climbed to 45,000ft followed by a sharp turn to the West. Uneven descent to 23,000ft. Malaysian military radar is noted as the source of this information.
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OleOle yes, however, that requires the ping to be a positive one. Your router at home can also only operate once you set it up to contain your specific data. It will however query a line in default setting in any case. My point is, can we be absolutely certain that a device on board without subscription will be set up individually? And who would have done this? I don't know if that gets transmitted. The Inmarsat press release did not admit much uncertainty in their identification |
45k at the point of last contact is going to take some explaining........
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