Brilliant berndt - all too believable - especially that approach from the south

"Lets fly past the Volcano and then turn to port around the North side..." not realising just how big those ridges are.... get that turn wrong and you are deep in the s***

I know the area reasonably well on the ground - used to visit some people from sunny Jakarta who had weekend homes there - and the visualistation is excellent - altho there was a lot more cloud around on the day of the crash I believe

Are you for real? :rolleyes:

Weather in the Bogor Area
 

I used to live in Jakarta and often stayed in a weekend cottage on the flanks of Gunung Gede at about 3000', 13 nm east of Gunung Salak. It is hard to believe how quickly the weather can change in that area unless you have seen it.

Most mornings we would have a spectacular view of Salak with not a cloud in the sky, but by early afternoon, clouds would be developing quite quickly, with rapid changes in cloud base and distribution, particularly on the flanks of the volcanoes.

By mid- or late-afternoon, there would almost always be a severe thunderstorm. Bogor, at the foot of Salak is known as the thunderstorm capital of the world. Reputedly more than 300 storms per year.

Canadian C-130 incident : nearly got boxed-in
 

What is typical for a demonstration flight intended to sell commercial planes?
 

Been plenty of speculation in some quarters that the pilots were trying to show off the plane's capabilities by making a dramatic maneuver, or give passengers (or pretty stewardesses?) a thrilling view of the mountain.

But is that how you ordinarily sell commercial airplanes to airline executives (the purpose of the flight)? Or would you try to demonstrate the plane's capabilities by approximating what passengers would experience, such as a smooth ride, low noise, and other comfort features? And approximating what the cabin crew would experience (e.g., by providing beverage service, as in the photo from the earlier flight).

And perhaps try to impress the beancounters (this plane is so simple to fly, you quickly can convert pilots from other types, or hire straight out of flight school). Or demonstrate the excellent fuel mileage, or whatever impresses beancounters.

Part of making a successful sale is getting the customer to like you. Still, I'm having difficulty equating the object of the flight with the theory of a dramatic maneuver or sightseeing frolic. That seems more suitable for selling a plane to a private pilot.

Or am I just naive? What would be typical for such flights, especially given the particular audience aboard?

Typical for demonstration flight......well that would depend.
 

There is no one template for an aircraft demonstration flight. There would be wide variation between Boeing, Airbus showing off their 787 or 380 to a new customer and what happened on this “Superjet’ flight. What Cessna, Gulfstream or Falcon crews may do on a demonstration flight might well be different as well. Of course there is not one profile; the flight demonstration profile will differ with individuals, companies, weather and likely hundreds of other variables.

Respectfully, if you really want to know what happened I suggest waiting patiently for the accident report. Or get the necessary training and experience yourself and go become an accident investigator and be on the “ground floor’ with “real time” information (Yes, I have had some training in this field). Speculation is just that speculation; the vast majority of it serves zero purpose-nothing (generating a lot of heat (hot air) with no light (truth). Pounding away at the key boards isn’t going to make every detail of what happened magically appear.

The best I am hoping for is that the professionals of the field are given complete latitude to conduct their investigations and publish their findings that the rest of the industry may learn from this tragic event.

Impressive indeed that this area endures, according to former resident India Four Two, around three hundred T-storms a year; with a typical pattern of clear early morning, with afternoon buildup of cloud, and storm to follow in mid or late afternoon.

Several posts have mentioned that there could have been problems with vis.
Has there been any report on wind direction relative to the ridge? It is my experience in flying close to mountains and ridges that orographic cloud will typically form on the windward side, as damp air flows upward, and on the leeward side, although visibility may be better, quite horrendous sinking air may be encountered. So that approaching the rock face,hoping to clear the ridge, if they could see it at all, these conditions might have been unhelpful.

I believe the passengers were largely journalists, not check-signing "airline executives." There may have been a few, but I think Sukhoi perhaps saw the purpose of the flight more as selling the aircraft by getting laudatory, wide-eyed newspaper and magazine coverage. And you're not going to get that by cruising super-efficiently at FL350.

I'm not being cynical, for in fact I've been an aviation writer since 1968, when I first joined Flying Magazine.

There were only 5 journalists on board; the others were mostly from various airlines in Indonesia. Not all were executives; about 11 from Sky Aviation (who have ordered the aircraft) were flight attendants.

A flight demonstration can be executed in several ways
Here is one for Boeing :)
Ended better than the Sukhoi .. or the A320 demo flight in France .........

Very well written northfly
 

Its true that we should wait for answers, and yes it's very easy to judge and to think without having all facts. But at the end as it is a rumors forum and the fact that they did end up where they did end up and the fact that they did ask for clearance much below any safe altitude in that area for IFR atleast and the most likely route they took, kinda even with no proof so far points even if u like it or not ,points to much more of a classical and simple accident of human factors and poor of a lot lot things towards any technical failures or anything else. Just my intuition.

As you most certainly know jcjeant, Alvin M. "Tex" Johnston had no passengers on board during his somewhat unorthodox sales demonstration of the Boeing's new Dash-80.

After landing my Beech 35 at Halim one mid-afternoon (on the flight from Seletar) I sat inside the plane for another half an hour, waiting for the RAIN to stop. As per subsequently issued TAF, Halim recorded over 4 inches of rain during this brief afternoon storm.

Referring the 707 demo, listen to the end....


Mr.Allen (CEO):

scenic gone bad
 

looking at Benrd's videos, I cannot understand why they would have flown up that valley.
Well, I can, but only for one reason: give the pax a very cool scenic flight. At the top of the valley, with a rather steep climb and, it would seem, narrow turn to the right that would have to be followed by a rather steep turn to the left in order to avoid the ridge on the other side, they just ran out of speed, altitude (read: ground clearance) and good ideas. This looks a lot like a canyon run that a fighter pilot would do, having a much better thrust to weight ratio than a commuter jet.
I'd be most happy to stand corrected, but at this time, I suspect it's the old "hazardous attitude" thing that killed those onboard.

sais someone who doesn't think in "thrust to weight" but in "lift over drag" ratios.

Certainly he had passengers on board. Tex even says so: "One of my test engineers ... snapped a picture"

He did a 1G roll at altitude. Nothing unsafe about it. In fact, the occupants on the plane wouldn't even feel it beyond the typical turning feeling if they weren't looking out a window.

Show off ...
 

1G Roll
 

Just to be pedantic, it's impossible to execute a roll and maintain 1 G throughout. Typically, something like 0.5 Gs are maintained at the top of the roll, but up to 2 or 3 Gs are seen during recovery of level flight. That would be noticed by any passengers.

Further, what Tex Johnston performed was a modified aileron roll, not a true aileron or barrel roll. He started the roll while in a climb, and ended in a shallow dive to keep the Gs limited while in the roll itself. Recovery from the dive would see in excess of 1G.

He pulled it off... Couple of years later a LH crew on a 720 bought the farm on a training flight trying to play copy-cat...

mary meagher - I don't remember much wind accompanying the weather around Gunung Salak - it just sort of builds up and then the thunder kicks in and it rains like hell for a coupl; of hours - nothing more than a very light breeze IIRC

Mary,
I don't know about the actual winds at the time and I have never flown anywhere in West Java other than as a passenger coming into Jakarta from the north.

However, as a glider pilot, I often looked very closely at the weather. You should bear in mind that Java is very close to the Equator and therefore in the doldrums. It is not likely that strong winds would develop in the Bogor area other than due to outflow from thunderstorms. I have seen stationary thunderstorms develop in one part of Jakarta, drop enough rain to cause one metre floods in the streets and then dissipate while less than a mile away it was sunny and dry!

@jcjeant
 

Sure it is not your intention to trivialise, but applicability to current disaster?

... err.... and wasn't there some sort of bigger city below him? Seattle perhaps? Ah, I see, the lifes of pedestrians do not count in some pilot's worlds.

And for all the followers of the "nothing unsafe about it" fraction - it has gone wrong so many times when done in an airliner / small jet. And not just with noname companies on the tail logo.

Tex Johnson was just as mad (or sane) as these pilots who deceased in the SJ.

Quite a few!

ASN Aircraft accident Boeing 720-030B D-ABOP Ansbach

ITAR TASS informed that found CVR recodring is undamaged and of high quality. All flight was recorded till final second.

Kulverstukas;
Thank you - please keep us informed. I haven't seen any news on the SSDFR data recorder - has it been found or are they still searching?

FDR search continued Saturday
 

Antaranews.com currently has an article up which as translated from Indonesian by Google Translate relates that on Saturday, May 19, search directed at finding the FDR continued conducted by Russian and Indonesian personnel. While the translation may add noise to a possibly imperfect original, there is a troubling reference to a three day time limit for Russian search effort.

Antaranews Saturday FDR search update

News video Sebagian Kotak Hitam Ditemukan - Antara News Video
Any opinions on the first 3 or 4 sec ?... the Sukhoi doing a low bank.
I wonder if they were used to quite aggressive flying for demo purposes ?

Fair enough. I'll perhaps start a thread on the technical section some time in the future.

This is incredible news.
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Weather at Salak
 

Here are a few photos of the weather on Gunung Salak on different occasions.

Salak from Bogor, the City of Rains with the peak and valley leading to the crash site on the right.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...P8251201-1.jpg

Salak peak from the NE slopes


http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...452cloud-1.jpg

A close up showing the weather in the valley that the Sukhoi flew. This view is taken from the NE slopes looking toward the peak and the Eastern ridge of the valley (which the plane crashed in). This is the faint ridge line from which a sheet of cloud is rising.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...alakmark-1.jpg

Similar view but on a clear day

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...P6191061-1.jpg


A view of the same ridge looking South from inside the crash valley itself.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...eyandridge.jpg

Weather on the higher Pangrango – Gede volcanoes on the eastern side of the plain seen from Salak’s slopes.

http://i920.photobucket.com/albums/a...rossvalley.jpg



There are three mountains in this area not two as mentioned in the thread.

nice pics - shows the weather and the ridges very well

Pilots sometimes do show off, if I needed proof it was in the 80's I was flying as a passenger out of an Asian country in their very first airbus. I visited the cockpit (as you could in those days) and the pilot was keen to show me how it handled "like a Spifire" (his words) when he switched the autopilot off. Scared me and I was in the cockpit, the poor passengers behind just didn't know what was happening;) nuff said.

What had weather to do with this accident?
 

If the weather was like that on the pictures, it would have been sufficient for VFR flying. Lots of airspace to fly around clouds and hills without the need to crash into something.

Well, we dont know how the weather was, but we can safely assume, that they had been on an IFR flight, otherwise it would not be necessary to request a clearance for lower altitude at first.

As we know, aircraft are equipped and crews should be trained and prepared to operate under IFR in all kind of WX conditions, only few situations like thundersstorms pose some danger enroute. Now the question, what had the weather to do with that accident?

Imho none at all.

Retired F4 :
interesting what you say, but do we know that for a fact ? :
What class of airspace is applicable in this area below 10.000ft? and what are the MSAs for the areas in question ? ( maybe someone has a Jeppesen at hand and could enlight us ?)

Were they on an IFR flight plan all the time , or did they cancel IFR at some point to continue visually ? ( that could explain the Clearance to descend apparently below MSA.)

Did they remain VMC all the time ...or did they enter IMC still under VFR at some point ?

I agree with you that the weather has nothing to do with the crash , but how they decided to fly around it (or not) could be .

MORA - MSA
 

Inside a 25 NM circle south of the airport MSA is set at 6900 ft MSL
Outside that circle the MORA for the sector with Mt. Salak and Mt. Gede is 11900 ft MSL. The taller Mt. Gede is the reference, all the mountains are outside the 25 NM circle
source of information: Mr. Gerry Soejatman report and maps.
stonevalley
Thanks for the pictures they give a good impression of the terrain and also about parts of the weather that can change very rapidly - as was reported -
RetiredF4
I am willing to follow your arguments if the flight rules were changed from IFR to VFR somewhere during the flight, however that is not reported so far to have happened. May be it turns up as soon as the CVR is deciphered.

But as you stated too, untill different facts become known, one has to believe that this was an IFR flight untill it´s very last second. The descend clearance requested sounds more familiar to an en route descend request to position ones flight for an intermediate approach altitude towards an approach to land.
If this proofes correct, there is only the possibility the crew descended into clouds ahead on their intended flight path and never saw Mt. Salak, anticipating that ATC would not clear them below MSA or into a mountain.
Intentionally I leave the terrain warning complex outside. that is a totally different field.
Remains one additional question: Why cleared ATC the flight below MORA and MSA?? Doing so, why not first request the pilot to cancel IFR and if he did advising him to stay VMC and clear of terrain (stay clear of clouds and maintain own separation to the ground - used to be standard phrase as I remember)
If not the pilots, they (ATC) - as locals - should know their airspace and the limits. So evaluating the radar recordings - if any available - and correlating Radar positions against RT-transmissions and CVR may deliver some valuable clues.

@ ATC Watcher

You miss the point i tried to make.

The weather will be like it is, and wether the flight operated under IFR (that´s the most obvious choice until now) or cancelled IFR and proceeded VFR (which the morning flight with the same crew and the same task didn´t do).

There is no obvious sound reason to descend IFR in good or bad weather below MSA / MORA (except for landing obviously) and there is no sound reason to cancel IFR and proceed VFR when weather is unsuitable to do so. Those altitudes MSA / MORA are published for reason, and it´s advisable to know those especially when not familiar with local terrain.

Under IFR it´s a non event to enter IMC and under VFR maintaining clear of clouds is paramount. And that is most true when flying VFR in mountain terrain below the peaks of known mountains.

I know what it´s like running into unexpected bad weather when flying low level 100 feet above ground with 480 KIAS, there is only one safe way, gain altitude as fast as possible and worry about an IFR clearance later.

Here we have an airtransport aircraft on a short demonstration flight taking off under IFR and hitting a scenic mountain in the middle of the flight after they requested an descent below MSA.

Therefore weather did not contribute to that accident in any until now known way i can think of.


Saw your post after i did mine, quick comment on it:

Never assume anything, either to know it or to recheck it is paramount. That´s especially true when opperating outside the known box in another country with other rules and in unknown terrain.

Did I read on a previous post that this was the second demo that day of the Sukhoi 100? with the same flight crew or not? if this was the case, no doubt passengers from the first excursion could give feedback on the conduct of that flight that might be relevant to the investigation.

RetiredF4
 

I fully agree with what you say!!
Hammered in my mind are the words of my first instructor in ATC some 43 years ago:
Never base control on assumptions
and
Better be safe than sorry !!
Standard phrases - as you know from your background as well - but if obeyed, very healthy ones

mm
 

I believe in our Latitudes an interrogation into the wider flight environment in case of a deadly accident is standard. At least that is what I remember from my 4 1/2 years participating in this special field.