Chubbychopper: the point I was endeavouring to make is that, had they been following the ILS,… well, they were plainly were not following it and / or that something was wrong with it and / or that something went wrong with it?!

So, if they were not following the ILS, then what were they following?

There has been a suggestion that the Glideslope Tx (though there's no NOTAM to that effect) was faulty, and / or that the Glideslope Rx (within the aircraft) was faulty.

Now if the latter was true, and was known to the crew in advance, then they might have been flying either the LOC procedure or the VOR procedure - both of which, of course, are Non-Precision approaches, albeit that the visibility (METAR) was reported as being as well within the limit required for either approach type.

Now I take it that you are you familiar with how a non-precision approach is typically flown in a B737 (especially one of that vintage, i.e. not utilising LNAV / VNAV)? If so, you will understand the procedure required from the piloting & 'automatics' point of view, and also understand the inherent errors and risks associated with it.

Given that the reported visibility was 3000 m (~1.6Nm), they should have expected to see the runway when approximately 500 ft above the ground - which is the point I was making in my previous post (above).

Imho, that scenario starts my alarm bells ringing! I.e. one's on a non-precision approach, at night, in poor weather (Cb's = Heavy Rain / Lightening? / Windshear? / Microburst?), with likely visual contact (with the runway environment) at a height of only 500 ft AGL. Uhm?!

Manoeuvring are large'ish jet aircraft, when close to the ground, in such conditions, is not without risk and requires a fair amount of ability.

Along with all the other possible f'ups that could occur, in respect of how the aircraft is being flown during such an approach, you will, I'm sure, also be aware of the effect that 'visual illusions' can play in such a scenario? E.g. amongst other elements (rain / lightening, etc), the main Islamabad Highway is 'conveniently' directly across the approach path (almost adjacent to where they crashed), and is probably within 30 degrees of being aligned with with runway. Just another consideration.

It has also been reported that this was an 'inaugural' flight for this airline, into Islamabad, a scenario which might significantly increase the pressure on the crew in terms of "get there'itus" ?!

So, Chubbychopper, you might describe the above comments as 'rocket science'. I however would rather describe it as experience, coupled with professionalism & knowledge.

Ah well, each to their own and according to their ability, eh ?! ;)

Cat 3 is NOT for landing during a thunderstorm!

If thats accurate then wind sheer/deep stall seems a real possibility. Max thurst to climb out of the sink...

Wx can be a real bitch...

If the pax manefest is being sold to relatives, as Umairch states, then whoever is cashing in should be brought to book. Lowest of the low. Seems money and bribes, coupled with pressure to press on regardless, have once again cost the lives of innocent people.

BBC reports debris over several km
 

If the report is correct then an in-air disintegration is indicated. Given the current view that modern aircraft don't get downed by weather then the options are pilot error, catastrophic failure of aircraft components, or a terrorist act. The age of the aircraft tends to indicate a catastrophic failure. In my opinion the next most likely are a terrorist act and then a pilot error.

It always amuses me when people go on about the age of an a/c. Age means nothing if an a/c is well maintained. There are still a number of B737-200s flying in Canada and I have felt no less safer flying on them.

SHRAGS!
Being an aussie, you would be excused for not understanding my comment, Cat.II/III approaches being a new thing down under (only recently established in Melbourne IIRC, but stand to be corrected).

I was referring to the FAA categorization of individual countries CAAs (International Travel) of which there are but 2 categories, either cat.1 - meeting ICAO standards, or cat.2 - not meeting ICAO. Now interestingly Pakistan is cat.1, but EASA has had significant issues with PIA since 2007 (or maybe earlier).

Rant over.

Ex ZS-OLB, and despite it's age it was pefectly capable of not falling apart in mid air. Pretty solid things, those little -200's actually. Except for the #2 engine falling off just after take off, but hey...

lomapaseo:
TWA sold either 6 or 7 747s to the Shaw of Iran.

Once it was determined that airplane came down north of Madrid because lightning entered through fuel tank vent TWA installed a protecting device on the entire fleet. I don't recall the particulars now but the device was supposedly fast enough to prevent lightning from getting to the fuel vapors.

The only way that the age of the Boeing will come into play in the investigation is if the flight crew's lack of situational awareness was brought about by having the older analog gauges instead of a more modern glass cockpit presentation. I once ( 20 years ago )had to make the transition from the Airbus 310 back to the steam gage B-727. It is a difficult transition, and if you add outside factors - thunderstorms - possible nav problems - whatever, I can see crew overload as a factor.
I have over 3000 hours in the 737-200 and I would fly one anytime, anywhere.

With a company name like that you really are tempting fate.

Director General Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Capt. Nadeem Yousafzai in press briefing today said that Bhoja Air was established on ILS. From radar it was handed over to Islamabad Airport ATC which asked Bhoja Air to confirm landing gear down and in lock position.

The aircraft suddenly lost height from 2900 feet to 2000 feet and then vanished from radar screen. Contact with Bhoja Air flight was lost at 6:40PM.

An AirBlue flight was following Bhoja Air flight. The AirBlue flight landed safely at Islamabad Airport five minutes after Bhoja Air accident.

It appears ILS equipped Runway 30 was operational at the time of accident.

DG CAA also said that Bhoja Air had cleared its outstanding dues.

He said that engine-maker Pratt & Whitney will also be asked to assist investigation process.

Aircraft's Flight Data/Cockpit Voice Recorder will be sent abroad for decoding process.

There are reports the pilots had radioed loss of control.

Swiss cheese model comes into mind. And in that region there are very few slices, with very big holes...

Report from UK newspaper - Independent
 

According to ATDB Bhoja Air operates two Boeing 737-200's.

*AP-BKC (MSN-23167) formerly G-BKYI the aircraft involved made its first flight on December 13th of 1984 thus dating the manufacture to 27.4 years.

* AP-BKD (MSN-21793) formerly G-BGDD the selected source for the above airfleet reference.

Sources within the Pakistani CAA unofficially have said about 5.4 nautical miles before touchdown radar showed the aircraft at 200 feet AGL where it should have been at about 1,700 feet AGL.

It appears from the latest reliably sourced data available at this time the pilot reported to ATC a fuel tank fire just before a catastrophic loss of control of the aircraft occurred.

about the pictures that eye witnesses have been showing, its a B727...T tail with a third engine on the tail.

about the large area of debris, wouldnt a relatively flat high forward speed crash cause a rather long debris trail?

if the info on the altitude is correct, sounds like a microburst to me.

as for crew being threatened. there is a lack of type rated pilots in pakistan. alot of unemployed pilot yes, but most of them are SE and military time, not heavy metal. bhoja barely has enough crew to field for the fleet, so does shaheen. Airblue on the other hand has crew saturation.

the weather was bad, it wasn't THAT bad to call for a diversion, but this is just a personal observation from the ground. yes there was an active cell near the field, but i have seen BA, EY EK QR and others come into OPRN with with worse conditions.

Btw, Bhoja is a the family name for the owners.

Pakistan plane crash: Fuel tanks 'exploded mid air' - Telegraph

Old aircraft, thunderstorm, fuel tank fire, corroded bonding points? Is that likely on modern aircraft?

Denlopviper: Which pictures? Which eyewitnesses? Some links, please???

thats what im saying, pics are of a 727 not a 737

and this wasnt the inaugural flight into islamabad, that was on the 6th of april.

oh and the rumor that the airline or CAA were selling the manifest is pure crap.! the airline chartered a flight to fly relatives from karachi upto islamabad. you really think they will charge poeple for the list :mad:

the amount of crap being said on the news is pissing me off...

Normal proceedure these days. Don't report the news, make the news.
Hopefully in time the facts will survive, and we will have a better understanding of the events.

According to eyewitnesses the aircraft hit the ground rose into the air again and exploded.

The wind storms in Rawalpindi/Islamabad airport vicinity are so ferocious, I have always wondered why it isnt closed to traffic at such times, one aborted A300 landing in such conditions at night and that too the pilot decided at almost the last moment not to land, so it really seems to be at their discretion and not ATC.

FIA takes Farooq Bhoja into custody

Plane crash: FIA takes Farooq Bhoja into custody – The Express Tribune

tyre marks in a field just before the crash site and uprooted tree(s) also located. some parts of the fuselage are totally charred, parts of the wings dont show much (or any) burn damage.

Sounds as if you already have !

32 years is not that old, there are still 60 year old DC3s in airline service.
What matters is the total cycles and hours as well as good maintainance.

flew on a BA/Comair 737-236 Joburg - Durban five years ago and was a superb flight. Never thought more about it.

The problem is that Pakistan never publishes accident investigations so the only information we are ever going to get is what can be pieced together from press reports and speculation.

What is already clear is that something went badly wrong while they were passing through a storm cell on final approach. If reports of the PF reporting loss of control by radio are true (yea right) is would seem likely that the aircraft suffered damage in the storm.

Such events are rare but they have happened in the past.

1) A lot of people forget that this is a news and rumours sub-forum.

2) A lot of people remind others that this is a news and rumours sub-forum.

3) All incidents and accidents occur due to a chain of events.

4) Eye witness accounts are unreliable. Read up on the JFK assassination for example.

The probable cause of this major accident is a fatigued flight crew, who had received awful training on said type, flew into bad met. conditions and got either disoriented or did not follow standard procedure when it came to executing an instrument-related approach (i.e. CFIT).

The probable cause of this major accident is a fatigued flight crew, who had received awful training on said type, flew into bad met. conditions and got either disoriented or did not follow standard procedure when it came to executing an instrument-related approach (i.e. CFIT).

How absurd can you be.

Obviously very little factual information is available, however if we take the statement that the co-pilot radioed a loss of control and the unusual speed and altitude it's just as likely that either windshear or structural damage (or both) led to an unrecoverable condition.

why cant it be a microburst? why does it have to be a very complex chain of events starting when the mother gave birth to the captain? :}

for those who are current on B732, when you are about 4NM from touchdown, that puts you just over 1300feet AGL, and you are hit by a strong microburst, is that 600 to 700 feet enough to recover?

ps its been confirmed by crews on the radio at the time that there was no mayday, loss of control or fire or any non routine radio call made by the bhoja crew. last call heard was the pilots confirming landing clearance.


edited to correct altitude :\

Things are changing. For example you can download the Air Blue accident report here: http://www.caapakistan.com.pk/downlo...20-ABQ-202.pdf
The only thing about that report that bothers me is that each page is marked, "Confidential".

Denlopviper,

Interesting way of making an approach if at 5nm from touchdown and your 600ft AGL! :eek:

Cactus, dont quote my numbers. did the maths without my morning cup of joe. :\

on double checking at 4DME you should be 2938 ft...thats about 1300 agl.

NZ 6.00 pm news ( 06.00 UTC ) advises Criminal Proceedings initiated.

Delta flight 191 hit a microburst on approach to DFW back in the 80s. This accident may have been a direct result of a microburst, but with that being said, the next question is, why were the crew flying into a T-storm, which leads back to crew training standards?

so let me get this straight. you went from crew fatigue, to aweful type training (which btw was done abroad, as i recall South Africa) to now saying they knowingly flew into an active thunderstorm and therefore standards of crews are bad?

just so you know the crash happened 2.5NM south east of the field, while the active CB cell was west of the field. so yeah they were out of the storms path through out the flight. also reported winds on the ground were 20kts gusting 30kts.

Josh, please go back and try to get funding for your flight training instead of feeding every single accidant with "flight training standards" as the cause of the accidant while the wreckage is still burning. Wait until the report is out or mention something factual instead of your speculations. :rolleyes:

whatever the cause and circumstances, the 'official' report will probably hold the interior aviation authority and local politics blameless and blame apportioned to the nationility of the pilot, the age of the aircraft, the country of manufacture of the aircraft etc etc.

result.. introduce an additional medical for non-national pilots, and ban aircraft over 10 years old and 'prevention' of a repeat incident is done. and no, this is not a generalisation, but an assessment predicated on historical events.

me ? i'll wait for any NTSB data (US manufactured aircraft) before speculating on cause and circumstance.

Stuckgear

Expats are not allowed on Pakistani carriers. the only ones with expat crew are Shaheen because their 737-800 are on wet lease

both pilots were pakistani. there are no expats in Bhoja, Airblue or PIA.

know the facts atleast :ugh:

you didn't detect the element of sarcasm then ? :ugh:

guess not. hard to detect sarcasm when there is soo much trash being thrown up in the air you know.