Probably not that many in canada with that kinda dough:}

I recall some 30-40 years ago when the same thing was said. SO, I became an airline pilot. I had to earn my GI bill by joining the army (why not be an air force pilot? reduction in force after vietnam war).

Saved my money, used GI bill for advanced ratings and college...starved for 9 years as a CFI, check flying pilot (crapy cargo), crummy third rate corporate stuff...3 rotten regionals and finally got to a good , legacy carrier. Promised to make captain there in 5 years, except saw a war in the Gulf, terror scares, airlines shrinking and it took eleven years. Then saw my pension go for pennies on the dollar. Watched as merger policies for major pilot union favor someone with 3 years airline experience over someone with 20 yyears!

Yeah, a shortage is coming round the corner...wish I had taken that job at apple computer in 1982...I would be a millionaire by now.

that's why they're trying to build a dreamliner

The maths are quite simple:
pilots) take an assumption on phase out of 3-crew a/c, assume no significant impact of 1-crew, an assumption on age profile, retirement age and wastage and the required new crew can be calculated. The Boeing answer is roughly in line with their market forecast.
maintenance) take an assumption on maintenance savings for new a/c, an assumption on age pofile, retirement age and the wastage and the required new mtce personnel can be calculated. The Boeing answer suggests a huge problem in keeping mx personnel as they and other manufacturers claim that latest a/c need less mtce.

Marketing bull****? ... or a real industry issue?

There are lots of industries that are seeing obvious disruptive influences, but on the number 8 front,

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...-never-recover

Are people (or perhaps more importantly freight) going to fly significantly less? Are airlines going to be replaced by another form of transport? Is the need for 2 pilots going to be reduced? Are duty hours going to change? Can this (service) business be replaced by foreign companies? Will something make flight completely unaffordable? Are mergers relevant in any way to pilot staffing levels and are mergers likely in the long-term within countries that recognise (often by law) the benefits of competition?

I'm not denying that many countries have a population with a delusion caused by a debt-fuelled boom which is likely to be dismantled over the next decade... but if a 1000 Shinkansen suddenly turn up or Otto the autopilot clones himself bigtime, i'd be worried! Until that happens i think there's some life left in that industry in terms of pilot employment. Salary levels are a different question, of course...

As people, we are often blindsided. Supply of oil is not the problem for aviation. Look at algae. It will power not only the many thirsty engines of the world, but feed cattle!

What is it that could derail aviation in a big way, then?

World markets are wedging into a technical pattern that will result in the terminal destruction, at least in the short and medium terms, of investor confidence the likes of which will be worse than that experienced in the depths of 2008/2009.

This is what will derail aviation.

The world will not need 1 million pilots simply because the demand for pilots will not be there. Sounds ominous, and doubtless brings the rain of condemnation on my head. But it is what it is, which is very bearish.

To look East for succour is folly, for China, India, Brazil et al have not delinked from the main game, that being the United States of America which, lamentably, is in ruin.

The next 20 years is what this thread is about.

In a word, it will be very 'challenging'.

sounds like Boeing will be the ones to contact for a job then ...

BigWhiteBird, the algae-based fuel is not as close as you think, for various reasons.

On the other hand, who will profit most from this exercise? Education and training institutions in US, no doubt. The cost of a 4-year engineering degree at decent uni is now so high that the entry level salaries for space/aero are laughable. They sometimes barely cover the basic needs. Yes, this is also at Boeing and LM. As it was pointed out, same situation applies for entry and mid-level pilots too!

Plenty of suckers fell into this trap before (including yours truly) thinking about long, rich and fulfilling career (talking engineering here)....

Lasciate ogni speranza, voi chi entrate:ugh:

Maybe boeing is trying to promote aviation as a great (in demand) job for the future, just to make sure there is plenty of cheap labour around to fly their planes, thus ensuring their sales dont slow as a result .

If there is a real shortage of experienced pilots, airplane orders will slow.

As someone rightly pointed out, what are the salaries and T & Cs going to be like in the future.

If the bulk of the industry is budget airlines as it is now, then I would never encourage my children to become an airline pilot, with a career of low pay and having to 'BUY' several type ratings during your career, as is the norm now.
Thats the only way to be offered a job now.

Say, after spending $100,000 to obtain a licence to ATPL standard, budget on 'buying' another three endorsements during your career. That may cost another $100,000-$150,000.

Are there any other professions that require as much additional $$$ to forward their career, change employers or find another job after redundancy. Most spend big bucks obtaining their Quals, then very little outlay for the remainder of their career. Someone correct me if im wrong.

There will always be individuals who will want to be airline pilots no matter what the cost, but IMHO they must carefully consider the money they will be expected to spend not only obtaining their initial qualifications, but also what other endorsements they will have to cough up for to continue their career, then factor in their forecast income.

Ridiculous

Total bull****, happy talk....... brought to you by the same clowns that (cant) bring us the 787.

Boeing is NOT BAC of the past.... its a brave new world and I think theyve screwed the pooch on the 787....good thing the US govt will bail them out, theyre gonna need it after this 787 mess

Tiz all bollox really
Can you imagine all those extra aircrew blocking up the various airport security.
Too hard
Should have been a surgeon, cut folks up legally!

Which is quite realistic with a A320 and B737 output of more than 1 every day.

The questions remains what happens with old aircraft, they are going to be replaced by the new ones. I sincerely doubt that all new arriving aircraft are being additional ones. Soon all those 767, MD80s, 757 have to go to the scrapyard.

Most probably corporate speak for "let's dumb it down a notch further...".

Surprise - Boeing owns a training company
 

Here is a lead in for on the Alteon Training site:

Boeing Training & Flight Services, formerly Alteon, is a new organization with a long tradition of providing high-quality training and flight services solutions that support the safe, efficient operation of your fleet. With our expansive global network and backing of nearly 100 years of Boeing Aviation experience, we help you meet the demands of an ever-changing business environment. Our name has changed, but our commitment to delivering a consistent standard of service excellence tailored to your specific requirements - regardless of fleet mix-remains the same.:=

"Supposedly" the trend and need for tech crews and engineers is huge. We've been hearing this for how many years now? And what have we seen?

• minimum experience requirements lowered;
• training standards lowered;
• costs cut & slashed under false guises whereby the real & only reason is profit at the expense of high standards & quality training;
• salaries for the said tech & engineering crews lowered;
• managerial / execs / bean-counters bonuses sky rocket;
• industry skill and knowledge plumet (& kids wonder why I get upset in the sim when they cannot define V1, or the 4 stages of a t/o, or Vmca in a heavy twin transport - stuff once thought of as our aviation bread and butter...., like RT);

A crew lands a stricken A320 on water & is praised for "explorary skill" where by the Capt's own admission they only did what training and experience directed them to do in a professional manner. Can a Capt with 1500-2000 hrs TT and FO with 175-250 hrs TT do the same nowadays as is the case at some "airlines" (loose term) given this new era we work & live in?

Sorry for the pessimism, but our history is the best indicator of our future.

Want to save aviation? (And what's left of american manufacturing....)

Shut down the top ten MBA schools in the U.S.

Huck, I don't know exactly what the situation is in the US, but I'd put forward the view that the solution is not to shut down the MBA schools. Rather expand them and send more people from the operational disciplines there for additional training.

The problem lies with a mindset that sees technical / operational and business disciplines as completely separate entities. As a junior engineer I became acutely aware how the business climate affected the major manufacturer that employed me. We saw profits being affected by political events and financing decisions, irrespective of how hard or smart we worked. Determined to understand more about the business, I went and did an MBA. When I tried to return to the industry I received a very cold shoulder - the HR departments made it absolutely and explicitly clear that they did not like people who cross-qualified between technical and business fields. Two comments made by interviewers come to mind:
-"Engineers should stick to engineering, and leave business to people who know what they are doing"; and
-"By having a technical and a business qualification you've made yourself unemployable in this industry"

In MBA-speak this is the classic "silo mentality".

My personal view is that if I was in charge of training new engineers or commercial pilots, I'd make sure they all had a solid grounding in the business of aviation.

5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.

Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.

Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368

Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.

Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.

Bravo, Beazelbub.

Very well put together.

Shines a powerful light on the garbage coming out of Boeing.

:ok:

With numbers of pilot licenses (especially general aviation) and hours flown trending downwards for years, where are future ATP pilots supposed to come from?

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