I rest my case...

4 approaches ????? fuel starvation ?

"Fuel starvation?"

Expolosions and pretty big fires at the crash site..

Check video.
Almost no fire, no smoke tower...
???

Doubt it given the evident fire, don't think these guys would be operating a VIP ship on a minimum fuel policy scenario, particularly given the weather.

Video I saw had fires burning in the background, and witnesses reported explosions ?

Also reported the aircraft flying low in a turn prior to crash.

1600 m of runway at Smolensk. Bad runway quality. No approach guidances.
As I pressume Tu-154 needs at least 2000 for safe landing :(.
It is a national disaster, nevertheless political biases :(

Latest reports say most of the Polish top brass were on board, including the Commander of the Air Force. This was a Polish Air Force aircraft, with military pilots... The first questions I would start asking after the CVR was listened to is who was sitting on the jumpseats (2 of them in the TU5 cockpit)

More coverage here from an English-language newspaper in Poland

Polish Presidential Plane Crashes

Fuel starvation? Don't think so. Warsaw is not so far from Smolensk (fuel miscalculation + 4 approaches). It looks like ground (tree) strike during go around. But who knows?

Pure speculation of course , but if it was a NPA perhaps they got the lights @ low altitude and were attempting to manouvere at low level in poor vis to get a landing out of it it.

Never easy, and the pressure on them to get in, evidenced by the fact it was their 4th attempt ,would no doubt push them to give it a go even if it looked nigh on impossible.

Poor guys, talk about between a rock & a hard place.

Obviously operating with min fuel would not be an OPTION in this scenario especially when the president along with a truck load of the nations big wigs are on board , but if you get to your destination execute 3 misses and are coming in on the 4th in around 100 mts viz with no guidance ..... your ASKING for trouble !

Polish president killed in air crash near Russia's Smolensk - RT Top Rated Videos


A Polish journalist, who had flown into Smolensk an hour earlier, describes what occurred (before he is 'cut-off' mid sentence).

The TU154 was attempting to land at a military airport, it seems may not have been suitable for a limited visibility landing.

The crew had been advised by air traffic control to divert to Minsk, but (no doubt because of the time factor) nevertheless attempted to land at the military airport.

Official Polish statement simply cites preliminary information suggesting striking trees during go-around, as reported here:

Polish president feared dead in Tu-154 crash

In 2008 President Kaczynski wanted to land in Georgia, which was at that time under Russian invasion. The captain refused to land (according to him it was too dangerous). He was highly criticized by the President, who actually wanted him to be prosecuted after the incident. So I can imagine the pressure to land at Smolenk was huge, especially today.

mcdhu

I am very well aware of the significance of the event. Unfortunately this very significance gives support to my thoughts. In aviation in seldom plays well if anything is considered more significant then the laws of gravity. From what is emerging, there was very clear pressure on the crew to land (emphasis: it may have been only percieved pressure).

@ Krasnall
Just try to land at extremely low visibliity at short runway, with bunch of VIPs sitting at your back. No approach guidances, 0 VFR conditions -
do it first and back here with comments.

List of those on board. Talk about all your eggs in one basket...

http://www.polskieradio.pl/wiadomosc...kul153440.html

Not only 737 is older in design, but this particular Tupolevs were similar age as LOT B737s. And 737s are not much superior in terms of safety record, especially if you discount cases of human error. Regarding avionics - both Polish VIP Tupolevs had cockpits completely refitted with Western avionics (Honeywell I think), they looked nothing like standard Tupolevs.

Anybody know what approaches are available at Smolensk?

Well said mcdhu.

Captainplaystation - at your current rate of posting you will have the final report polished off by five o' clock - fully inclusive of cause and contributory factors. Has it not occurred to you that most here have no interest in the speculative nonsense that you spout while a nation is grieving?

It's Saturday today, so no school for you. Why not go back to your computer game and wait for facts to emerge, or watch cartoons on the telly?

Although we don't know at this point in time if it was a factor, pressure to get in can indeed be a dangerous thing.

A Danish government G-III crashed on approach to Vagar some years ago. It was carrying the chief of the RDAF, who were heard on the CVR ordering the pilots to shoot an approach in very poor weather. That flight ended in a CFIT accident, killing all onboard.

To clarify runway length confusion:

Smolensk has two airfields, Smolensk North and Smolensk South. Both have similarly aligned (08/26) 50m wide runways. The North one is the military airfield with 2470m runway, the south one is a small civilian/utility airfield with 1550m runway. The accident must have happened at the North one. On Google Earth I cannot discern any approach lighting system in place, even though the resolution is very good.

Passenger list (google translation)

Lista osób na pok?adzie Tupolewa- Onet.pl - Wiadomo?ci -10.04.2010

OFFICIAL DELEGATION

1st Mr Ryszard Kaczorowski, former president of Poland in Exile

2nd Mr. Krzysztof Putra Sejm Marshal

3rd Mr. Jerzy Szmajdzinski Sejm Marshal

4th Krystyna Bochenek Deputy Senate

5th BAHR Jerzy Ambassador of the Russian Federation

6th Mr. Wladyslaw STASIAK Chief Presidential Chancellery

7th Mr. Aleksander Szczyglo Head of National Security

8th Mr. Paul WYPYCH Secretary of State in the President's Chancellery

9th Mariusz Handzlik Undersecretary of State in the President's Chancellery

10th Mr. Andrzej Kremer, Undersecretary of State for Foreign Affairs

11th Mr. Stanisław Komorowski, Undersecretary of State in the Defence

12th Mr. Tomasz Merta Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Culture

13th Gen. Francis Gągor Chief of General Staff of Polish Army

14th Mr Andrew CARRIER Secretary ROPWiM

15th Mr. Maciej Plazynski President of the Association "Polish Community"

16th Mariusz KAZANA MFA Diplomatic Protocol Director

PARLIAMENT REPRESENTATIVES RP

1st Mr. Leszek Deptuła deputy to the Sejm

2nd Mr. Gregory Dolniak deputy to the Sejm

3rd Ms. Grazyna Gęsicka deputy to the Sejm

4th Mr. Przemyslaw Gosiewski deputy to the Sejm

5th Lord Sebastian KARPINIUK deputy to the Sejm

6th Ms. Izabela Jaruga - Nowacka Deputy to the Sejm

7th Mr. Zbigniew Wassermann deputy to the Sejm

8th Ms. Alexander Natallia - WORLD Member of the Sejm

10th Mr. Arkadiusz Rybicki deputy to the Sejm

11th Jolanta Szymanek - Deresz Member of the Sejm

12th Wiesław WATER deputy to the Sejm

13th Mr. Edward Wojtas deputy to the Sejm

14th Janina FETLIŃSKA Senator RP

15th Mr. Stanislaw ZAJAC Senator RP

ACCOMPANYING PERSONS

1st Mr. Janusz Kochanowski Ombudsman

2nd Mr Sławomir Skrzypek, President of the Polish National Bank

3rd Janusz Kurtyka President of the Institute of National Remembrance

4th Janusz Krupski Director of the Office for War Veterans and Repressed Persons

REPRESENTATIVES Churches and Religious Affairs

1st Fr. Bp. Maj.-Gen. Tadeusz Ploski Ordinary of the Polish Army

2nd Archbishop Brig. Miron Chodakowski Orthodox Ordinary Polish Army

3rd Fr. Col. Adam Pilch Field Protestant Chaplaincy

4th Fr. Lt. Col. John OSIŃSKI Ordinariate of the Polish Army

Katyn Families REPRESENTATIVES AND OTHER SOCIETIES

1st Mr. Edward Duchnowski Secretary General of Association of Siberian Deportees

2nd Fr. Monsignor Bronislaw Gostomski

3rd Fr. Association President Joseph Joniec Parafiada

4th Fr. Zdzislaw KING Chaplain Warsaw Katyn Families 1987-2007

5th Fr. Chaplain Andrew Kwasnik Federation of Katyn Families

6th Pan Tadeusz LUTOBORSKI

7th Bozena Łojek President of the Polish Foundation for Katyn

8th Mr. Stefan Melaka Katyn Committee Chairman

9th Mr. Stanisław Mikke Vice ROPWiM

10th Mrs. Bronislaw Orawiec - Löffler

11th Ms. Catherine Piskorska

12th Mr Andrew SARIUSZ - SKĄPSKI President of the Federation of Katyn Families

13th Mr Wojciech SEWERYN

14th Mr. Leszek Solski

15th Ms. Teresa Walewska - PRZYJAŁKOWSKA Foundation Golgotha of the East "

16th Ms. Gabriela Zych

17th Ewa Bąkowska granddaughter Brig. Mieczyslaw Smorawinski

18th Mrs. Maria Borowska

19th Mr. Bartosz BOROWSKI

20th Dariusz MALINOWSKI

REPRESENTATIVES OF THE ARMED FORCES RP

1st Gen. Bronislaw KWIATKOWSKI Operational Commander of Polish Armed Forces

2nd Gen. pil. Andrew Błasik Polish Air Force Commander

3rd Maj.-Gen. Tadeusz BUK Commander of Land Forces of Poland

4th Maj.-Gen. Vladimir POTASIŃSKI Polish Special Forces Commander

5th Vice Admiral Andrzej Karweta Commander Navy

6th Brig. Kazimierz GILARSKI Commander Training Centre

Polish military sources are quoted by the media as saying that 30mins before the crash a Russian military plane IL-76 was sent back to Moscow's Vnukovo airport because of poor conditions. It was piloted by someone very familiar with the Smolensk airport, who after two approaches decided it was not a good idea. Landing at Minsk airport instead of Smolensk was suggested to the pilots of the Polish plane....

Which airfield?
 

CNN keeps showing and saying that there is only one airfield at Smolensk, and shows the Google image of a military airfield 1500m long, which looks too short.

However, there is a civilian field north of Smolensk with 2500m. Surely this is the field it was trying, as 1500m, seems a little short for TU154?

Not for the first time, CNN has it wrong. The South one with the short runway is the civilian field, the military field with the long runway being the North.

CNN quotes a russian official saying the accident happened on the outskirts of Pechersk, a town just north of the Northern military field. If this statement is true (as it appears to be), then the accident happened while the a/c was circling the field following go-around, not during approach.

Report say "severnyi" airport, so North.

Taf/metar
 

It seems that Smolensk has no ICAO code but only an IATA one.
No METAR or TAF is available except a report called synop with a special coding. The WMO ID of Smolensk is 26781 and the only informations that I could find are below:

SYNOPS from 26781, Smolensk (Russia)
SI 10/04/2010 09:00-> AAXX 10091 26781 41396 80904 10027 20022 39956 40253 54000 71042 886//
333 88707=
SM 10/04/2010 06:00-> AAXX 10061 26781 31/93 91403 10009 20009 39956 40255 53003 74540
333 20005=
SI 10/04/2010 03:00-> AAXX 10031 26781 41996 01102 10005 21006 39953 40253 54000 71000
333 55074=
SM 10/04/2010 00:00-> AAXX 10001 26781 42997 01402 10030 21005 39953 40250 54000=
SI 09/04/2010 21:00-> AAXX 09211 26781 42997 71402 10061 21005 39953 40247 53003 87030=
SM 09/04/2010 18:00-> AAXX 09181 26781 32997 01102 10092 20002 39950 40241 54000
333 10160=
SI 09/04/2010 15:00-> AAXX 09151 26781 42597 31304 10141 21002 39950 40235 57015 83200=

SM 09/04/2010 12:00-> AAXX 09121 26781 42597 31103 10139 20029 39965 40250 57012 83200=



Sources : Ogimet.com// or metaf2xml: parse and decode METAR, TAF, and SYNOP and store as XML for a decoding.
or :
Meteorological Resources - SYNOP
Still trying to decipher...

To me the most incredible is to have the complete top brass of the Polish Armed Forces on the same aircraft. While the civilian delegation was mainly 2nd/3rd ranking officials and not unusual in composition, the top six commanding generals were all on the flight. I'm sure in an organisation where there is a regulation on how to tie shoelaces, there must have been a rule against this...

Aviation weather in Smolensk today
 

According to History : Weather Underground between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM this morning the visibility at Smolensk airport changed from 4 kilometers to 0.5 kilometers, the conditions from mist to heavy fog!

I can't believe amount of cr@p written here by presumingly Polish posters. Crash is the tragedy. When it comes to the rest, make your facts right:

1. Both VIP 154M, reg 101 and 102 were built in 1990 and delivered new to Poland, later avionics was upgraded. They are same age as US VC25 (Air Force One).

2. 154M is not very economical airplane for airlines, but it is technically sound and reliable aircraft.

3. ATC offered them first divert to Minsk, later when handled over to Russians, they offered to divert to Moscow.

4. It looks they've attempted 4 approaches. There is no ILS at military Smolensk-North.

This particular airplane has been overhauled recently.

Reporters now say, that the airplane circled the airport couple times. They are not sure how many approaches it attempted.

I have a different impression.

Yeap, and 101 was overhauled last year.
102 was delivered in 1994.

Arrakis

CargoOne.

Not nice using such words...
:=

You should mind this 154M was still using the same engines like the LOT Il-62
which crashed 1980 and 1987. Both due to uncontained engine failure.
Nothing changed on design and technology.

Please do not compare AirForceOne with these 154.

Almost every second flight of these aircraft 101 and 102 was plagued
recently by different technical issues.

Few month ago the chief of the Polish Air Force unit flying these aircraft
resigned and left the army in protest, being unable to keep the standards.

ptkay

Hopefully you know that there is no MEL on Polish Air Force TU154M, unlike LOT 737. It is not designed to be commercially effective, and it is not dispatchable with carry-on defects. If you don't see the difference, I guess we have nothing to discuss.

When it comes to investigation, don't forget that this is not a civil aircraft and not a civil flight. None of usual arrangements you have in mind are applicable.

Hit the nail on the head. Any civilian operator would have a rule of two missed approaches and divert, no questions asked. The airforce mentality of 'complete the mission whatever it takes' is likely to be a contributing factor here.

So no ILS, no VMC, and no MEL and no standards. Just top brass in the back insisting to land on time?:eek:

You'd be surprised how often this happens. On a tour of our Russian plants back in 2004, our travel agent was careful to ensure no more than 3 personnel were on the same flight... and then booked all 8 of us on the same minibus to the airport. :eek: