Just taken from the associated press website

Timeline of disappearance of Air France jet
By The Associated Press – 15 minutes ago
Timeline of events surrounding the disappearance of Air France Flight 447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, according to Air France, Brazilian Air Force. All times in Brazilian local time:

_ 7:03 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane left Rio de Janeiro. Brazilian Air Force says plane left at 7:30 p.m.

_ 10:30 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane has last contact with Brazil air traffic control. Brazilian Air Force says last radio contact at 10:33 p.m., 351 miles (565 kilometers) from northeastern Brazilian city of Natal.

_ 10:48 p.m.: Brazilian Air Force says last radar contact with Brazil indicated plane flying normally.

_ 11 p.m. Sunday: Air France says plane entered zone of storms and high turbulence.

_ 11:14 p.m. Sunday: Air France receives automatic message indicating electrical circuit malfunction.

_ 11:20 p.m. Sunday: Brazilian Air Force says plane fails to make previously scheduled radio contact with Brazil. Brazil notifies air traffic control in Dakar, Senegal.

_ 2-3 a.m Monday: Air France says French military radar begins searching for plane.

_ 2:30 a.m. Monday: Brazilian Air Force says it mounts search and rescue mission with two planes.

_ 4:30 am Monday: Air France says it sets up crisis center.

_ 6:15 a.m. Monday: Plane's scheduled arrival in Paris, according to Air France.

_ 8:30 a.m. Monday: Brazilian Air Force says it was told by Air France about the message the plane sent to the company. The message indicated technical problems, including a loss of pressure and an electrical system failure, Brazilian Air Force says.

Agree,,if i was in that plane i would prefer a instant end at 30´Ft then a "second end" in the Atlantic Sea

Horrible day

it lost all communications with the airplane and an hour later it went into a thunderstorm, and from there somehow it either broke up or crashed to the sea? Looks like there is a complicated answer to what happened but it will take some time to figure it all out. Sad for all involved

Just a thought; could the captain be asleep "in the back" and the 2 "youngsters" up front? :(

Satellite pic
 

Here is the EUMetsat site where you can see satellite pics for the area for various times. Certainly was some vigorous convection, as seen if you view the loop around 0600Z

EUMETSAT IPPS animation - Meteosat 0 degree Infrared 10.8 America

The ACARS message has supposedly been received at 02:14Z which is prior to the 02:20 ETA for TASIL.

I have had three lightning strikes on the A330 with little effect. On just one occasion the lightning struck the nose wheel doors on the descent and they slammed open and shut. Fortunately we were descending below 10,000 feet and were at 250 knots, a higher speed could have torn the doors off. The wires joining the flight controls to the computers and the surface actuators are very well screened in thick white plastic. The Airbus does seem to attract lightning but there has never been a serious incident until, maybe, now.

Are there any plans to develop a flight recorder device that - instead of " recording" data to a HD/tape, relays data real-time, or batches in near-real time, to a company's maintenance center, or, say, an agency or business that can store this data in the appropriate media and then archive it? Perhaps a passive system that only activates if a certain number of conditions are met, a certain number of faults/conditions that may indicate abnormalities?

It seems kind of weird that someone has not come up with the idea of capturing flight data (or at least part of it), compressing it and relaying it out of harms way via an encrypted protocol, at least for trans-oceanic flights where data retrieval may prove difficult or impossible.

We can steer rovers in Mars, send and retrieve commands to orbiters on other planets, pilot drones in war zones across the planet but we can't downlink text data from a commercial airplane?

Testpanel, first rest is normaly 3rd crew. ie the fo in pnf seat on the way out.
Unlikely. Could be wrong of course. I don't work for AF.

testpanel: Oh come on!
Just because they're first officers DOES NOT mean they aren't capable of handling an emergency situation.
Your post implies that the 2 first officers are somehow lesser pilots than the captain.
:ugh:

IMHO a total eletrical failure (loss of ALL eletrical buses) is as dangerous in an Airbus than it is in a 747 or any given No Manual Reversion Aircraft.

Without eletrical power the hydraulics pumps do not pump, the plane looses control.

Obviously not true. I have flown (inadvertently) through two thunderstorms in standard jets, and they are (usually) survivable. NASA has flown hardened aircraft through many thunderstorms. While they may have enough turbulence to overload an airframe, it certainly isn't a certainty.

The forecast and satellite pictures of the area are not unusual, the comments here seem a bit overstated.

Having said that, I would still put my money on an in-flight break-up in turbulence rather than a lightning strike.

previous damage
 

earlier on this thread were some messages about prior damage during a wing strike while taxiing. Were has this gone? When was that and any knowledge about the repairs performed? Any other information about technical difficulties on this particular plane?

first reports were indicating also a short circuit. So could probably arcing have occured and thereby a fire in the electronical system or along the wires? Could a lightnig strike damage vital wires or induce arcing thereby leading to an inflight fire?

Comments are appreciated.

Total electrical failure particularly on the Airbus A330 would result in the RAT being deployed autmoatically to power flight critical equipment like radio, flight controls etc. unless in the case of AF the RAT also fails :(

Aircraft get hit by lightning everyday.

Aircraft also accidentally fly through thunderstorms more often than you think. Every high time pilot has one or two stories to tell.

My point is this accident is not simply weather related. There has to be a lot more to the story.

Doubts over lightning's role in missing jetliner | Reuters

Reuters reporting 2 flights on the same/similar tracks, one 30 mins ahead, on e2 hours later (and to the south):

"It had been preceded safely on the same track 30 minutes earlier by a Boeing 747-400 heading to Frankfurt for Lufthansa, according to a source with access to data transmitted from jetliners for the World Meteorological Organisation.

Two hours later an MD-11 cargo plane also flown by Lufthansa passed just south of the same spot on the way to West Africa, the source told Reuters, asking not to be identified."

iX

checkboard

You not alone think soo

"Analysis: turbulence, not lightning, most likely cause of Air France crash"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6407081.ece

DATE: 17.08.2006 LOCAL TIME: - LOCATION: Paris-CDG Intl AP (LFPG) COUNTRY: France
AIRLINE1: Air France TYPE: Airbus A321-211 REGISTRATION: F-GTAM C/N: 1859 AGE: 3 y + 9 m
AIRLINE2: Air France TYPE: Airbus A330-203 REGISTRATION: F-GZCP C/N: 660 AGE: 1 y + 5 m
OPERATION:1 ISP FLIGHT No.: - FROM: Paris-CDG TO: Rome-FCO VIA: -
OPERATION2: ISP FLIGHT No.: - FROM: Paris-CDG TO: Ouagadougou VIA: -
OCCUPANTS1: PAX: - CREW: x
FATALITIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
INJURIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
DAMAGE TO AIRCRAFT: minor
OCCUPANTS2: PAX: - CREW: x
FATALITIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
INJURIES: PAX: 0 CREW: 0 OTHER: 0
DAMAGE TO AIRCRAFT: minor
Both aircraft suffered damage in a ground collision at Charles de Gaulle Airport. The tail of the A321 was substantially damaged when it was hit by the taxiing A330. Damage to the latter was considered as minor.
SOURCE(S): -


taken from:

http://www.jacdec.de/news/years/ALL2006.txt

Based upon what has been said about an electrical problem perhaps my thoughts on a latent structural failure are not likely.

One thing is a fact as per Air France stated..."Huge catastrophic failure" Pilots were not able to send any distress call, or even if they do send distress call nobody hears them, that only means one thing the events happen so fast that not even the crew could take immediate distress call, even with just a flick of a button :(

Retuers reports-"Air France (AIRF.PA) said the Airbus (EAD.PA) A330 plane had hit stormy weather and "strong turbulence" and a spokesman said it could have been hit by lightning."

How does AF know this to be true. Was there any report from the airplane prior to gone missing? The cockpit is the only one who knows about turbulence.

150-300Mb Divergence for 03:00 UTC, Jun 01

http://www.xplanefreeware.net/morten/DIV/turb3.GIF

Fly it - if you can!
 

Of all that I´ve read in this very long thread - this is the most likely scenario!. The dreaded UP following loss of spatial awareness following a CB entry, at night (and violent turb.) with everything possible going wrong with instruments/electrics/systems - nightmare! All the hours of experience in the world won´t mean a thing if you can´t "fly the beast" .
Sounds a bit doomsayerish I know - but it has and, no doubt will continue, to happen in both civil and military aviation globally.

Another IRU fault resulting in sudden departure from controlled flight?

Several months ago an A330 transiting across Australia suffered a transient electrical fault in IRU1. It caused AP1 to think the aircraft had pitched down ~40 degrees. Needless to say it pitched up in response. Fortunately they recovered and the aircraft landed safely after diverting.

I wonder if this did similar, only in the opposite sense? :eek:



ECAM Actions.

According CNN
 

But about 4:15 a.m. Paris time, Flight 447's automatic system began afour-minute exchange of messages to the company's maintenancecomputers, indicating that "several pieces of aircraft equipment wereat fault or had broken down," he said."This succession of messages signals a totally unforeseeable, greatdifficulty," he said. "Something quite new within the plane.""It was probable that it was a little bit after those messages thatthe impact of the plane took place in the Atlantic," he added.4 minutes broadcast! :bored:

CAVOK 73

"Without eletrical power the hydraulics pumps do not pump, the plane looses control."

NOT SO!

EDPs still work without electrics.

Non "FLY BY WIRE" aircraft can still be flown without any electrics.

Airbuses from A320 onwards need some electrics to operate flying controls.

It is curious to see Air France giving all these details and yet they give no evidence to back up all these "theories".

Most Airlines would express their condolences and then decline further comment until the facts were more clear.

What's up with Air France?

Possibly a numerical transposition error or more likely the usual confusion of 'out' versus 'off' time. Years ago some wacko wrote a conspiracy theory book about the Lockerbie crash and used this discrepancy to help 'prove' his conjecture.

The final ACARS messages were sent well out of VHF range it appears, they would be sent with HFDL or Satcomm. HFDL messages can be read thousands of miles away and normally contain position data, I've used Charles Brain's PC-HFDL program to track planes off the coast of Africa from the U.S. with a computer and HF receiver.

Jesus Christ! CNN has pprune already in the news!:{

Beware, fellows.

CNN World literally has PPrune pulled up on a computer, reading posts off this very thread, live.

Incredible. Tread carefully.

Worrying thought that the media use Pprune for info, considering that most people on here will be as ill informed as themselves. I do hope that they don't use any speculation as fact, but my faith in the media can't stretch that far.

Until the plane is found or the FDR all we can do is speculate, which I think is certainly interesting to see all the many various scenarios that are played out on here and the media. I am in no way an expert (still only a humble student of the sky) but watching some of the muppets that they have standing outside the airport reporting you do wonder what planet they are from and where on earth they grab some of the cod s*it.......

Looking forward to many an interesting theory,

MM6473

I would put my money on a +ve lightning strike? Anyone agree?

In cases like this, unfounded speculation can be dangerous, especially with CNN quoting this site!

Many of us here have 1000s of hours in A330. Many of us have been in the middle of squall lines, thunderstorms and the ITCZ.

While these weather phenomena are to be respected by pilots, only very few cases are known whereby they bring down an airliner.

Myself I have witnessed several cases of being hit by a lightning strike in Airbus FBW aircraft (A320/330/340). I lost a radome, I had holes larger than a watermelon burned in my stabiliser, on one incident I had 56 entry and exit holes in the fuselage.

But NEVER ever did I loose control of the aircraft! Sure, you will get a transient power glitch but that is it! Screens come back in a matter of seconds, computers stay on line.

Remember, an airplane acts as a FARADAYS cage whereby the electronic loads stay on the outside of the cage!

The same goes for turbulence. An aircraft like the A330 can withstand a tremendous amount of stress. Just go and look on youtube and search for stress test airplane wing. So in order to have a modern airliner breaking up by turbulence you really need extreme forces, forces very very rarely encountered.

So please, give the crew as well as the manufacturer some credit. Millions of people have flown these aircraft for thousands of hours without incident.

AF pilots are very well trained and this crew had lots of experience.

So something catastrophically happened here, that's for sure, but please refrain from jumping to conclusions too fast. The world is watching!

For those of you using this incident as another Boeing vs Airbus bashing, you should think again. This is not the time nor the place to do so!

The French are an intensely proud nation and can be very determined in something like this. They also have a fine engineering & technology tradition and in previous air accidents where French nationals were involved (eg Flash Airlines 604 - Egypt) have gone to extreme lengths to recover the FDR & CVR. In that case they had a Navy salvage ship and ROV on site and the recorders recovered within two weeks - pretty impressive, although the depth was 'only' 1000m.

If the debris field is found, they will be on the case faster than you can say 'Jacques Cousteau' and if there is even a remote chance the DRs can be recovered, they will get them.

Sgnr de L'Atlantique :D

Does the A330 ACARS used by AF (or whatever equipment that was sending the MX messages to company) include position info in its transmissions? I've done some pretty significant (100+ mile) deviations around WX, and it occurs to me that if AF447 was doing the same, unless the A/C was sending position info via satellite, the potential search area could be pretty big indeed.

Not good.

Q.

Can somebody tell what system on the aircraft detects a system failure (ie pressuraization, electrical etc) and then sends an off-airrcraft message? Is this via ACARS? Are all fault messages sent from the aircraft?

The WX radar might not have been functioning, the brightness might have been turned down. Thunderstorms can form in 30 minutes or less.

ECAM Very valid observation.


Could anyone comment on the chances of a lighting strike affecting an ADIRU?

Also FCOM specifies that pressure system controllers on this type get information from the ADIRU , could a malfunction on one of the ADIRU's lead to a decompression?

CB = Cumulonimbus, in layman's terms it's one of those massive storm clouds that tower into the sky. They can contain all sorts of nasties, hail, windshear, rain, all in the space of seconds.

Take a look at Cumulonimbus cloud - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia for some pics.

Cheers
Noel

Also, should a really big area of T-Storms form rapidly, sometimes you can find yourself in the middle of what was a clear path, only now you are surrounded by huge CBs (cumulo nimbus clouds).

My first lightning strike was in a cloud (at night) that the radar was only showing as green (light precip.). After the lightning it got pretty rough. We figured we must have run into a cell that was just going from build-up to mature stage.

Onboard weather radar is a useful tool, but certainly has its limitations.

Q