Birmingham And Leeds Bradford - X-winds
 

Both DUBLIN and SHANNON have WSW winds gusting to 50kts. This represents 40 degrees left of Dublin's Rwy 28.

BIRMINGHAM (BHX) and LEEDS BRADFORD (LBA) appear to be the most cross-windy of the large airfields in the UK, at the time of writing, with their north-westerly runways.

The LEEDS BRADFORD TAF (see below) suggests that there will be problems for ops on Rwy 32 (the only one available) from 0300z to 1800z tomorrow (Wednesday). It is currently over 30kts component in gusts (see below).

EGNM 111650Z 24024G34KT 190V270 9999 SCT030 10/02 Q0977
EGNM 111620Z 24020G33KT 210V270 9999 -SHRA SCT020 10/03 Q0976
EGNM 111550Z 25020KT 190V270 9999 SCT018 09/04 Q0977
TAF EGNM 111522Z
11 1601 26018G30KT 9999 BKN018
TEMPO 1601 27025G40KT 6000 SHRA SCT014CB=
TAF EGNM 111637Z
12 0024 26025G40KT 9999 SCT018
TEMPO 0318 23035G50KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0310 28040G65KT 4000 RADZ BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 0409 2400 RASN PROB40 TEMPO 1022 6000 SHRA BKN018CB=


BIRMINGHAM is already getting a crosswind component of 35kts in gusts, on Rwy 33. [Rwy 24 is only about 1200m long.] The latest 24-hr TAF (see below) has increased the wind strengths for tomorrow. The wind is now forecast to be we outside some crosswind limits, occasionally, between 0500z and 1100z tomorrow (Wednesday).

EGBB 111720Z 24016KT 9999 SCT045 10/06 Q0982
EGBB 111650Z 24021G35KT 9999 -SHRA FEW012 SCT028 10/07 Q0982 RERA
EGBB 111620Z 25018KT 9999 SCT040 12/04 Q0981
EGBB 111550Z 26020KT 9999 BKN040 12/04 Q0982
EGBB 111520Z 26018G32KT 9999 BKN040 12/04 Q0981
Corrected TAF EGBB 111536Z
11 1601 26018G30KT 9999 SCT030
PROB40 TEMPO 1601 27024G38KT 6000 SHRA SCT020CB=
TAF EGBB 111637Z
12 0024 25024G38KT 9999 SCT020
TEMPO 0315 27035G50KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0511 28040G65KT 6000 RA BKN012 PROB40 TEMPO 1020 6000 SHRA BKN018CB=

London Heathrow - No forecast problems?
 

Selection of METARS, and the current TAFs for LONDON HEATHROW [NB: most recent now at the top.]

The mini-ridge of (relatively!) high pressure provided an overnight lull of moderate westerlies, but is now history. The QNH peaked at 988 at LHR between 0720z and 1020z, with the W/V backing/reducing to 210/12. The warm front/occlusion associated with the next system arrived around midday. The marked rise in dew-point was reversed as a further trough (?) transited at about 1400z, with showery outbreaks. Since then the pressure has recovered slightly, but the wind has strengthened/veered to nearly gale-force westerly (260/29-41 at 1550z).

COR EGLL 111750Z 26030KT 9999 FEW042 12/05 Q0986 TEMPO 26028G40KT=
EGLL 111650Z 26028G39KT 9999 FEW041 13/05 Q0986 NOSIG
EGLL 111620Z 26031G41KT 9999 SCT046 14/05 Q0985
EGLL 111550Z 26029G41KT CAVOK 15/05 Q0985

EGLL 111450Z 26026G38KT 9999 SCT038 SCT044 14/07 Q0984 NOSIG
EGLL 111420Z 26025KT 9999 FEW034 SCT041 14/08 Q0984 TEMPO 26022G38KT
EGLL 111350Z 25017KT 9999 VCSH SCT023 SCT038 13/09 Q0984 BECMG 25020G30KT
EGLL 111320Z 22013KT 190V250 9999 FEW041 13/10 Q0985 TEMPO SHRA
EGLL 111250Z 24017KT 7000 -RA FEW013 SCT030 12/09 Q0985 TEMPO BKN013
EGLL 111220Z 22012KT 190V250 9999 SCT012 BKN020 10/09 Q0985
EGLL 111150Z 19011KT 160V220 9999 SCT008 SCT012 09/08 Q0986 TEMPO RA BKN014
EGLL 111050Z 20012KT 9999 -RA FEW015 BKN018 08/05 Q0987 TEMPO RA BKN014
EGLL 111020Z 21012KT 9999 BKN021 08/03 Q0988 TEMPO RA BKN014

EGLL 110850Z 24015KT 9999 FEW028 08/02 Q0988
EGLL 110750Z 21011KT 9999 FEW020 07/02 Q0988
EGLL 110720Z 24014KT 9999 FEW020 07/02 Q0988 NOSIG
EGLL 110650Z 25014KT CAVOK 07/01 Q0987 NOSIG

EGLL 110420Z 26021KT 9999 BKN043 08/02 Q0985 NOSIG

EGLL 110120Z AUTO 27019KT 9999NDV DZ FEW022/// SCT032/// BKN037/// 07/05 Q0980

TAF EGLL 111523Z
11 1601 26022G32KT 9999 SCT020
PROB30 TEMPO 1601 26028G43KT 7000 SHRA
TAF EGLL 11 1655Z
12 0024 25020G35KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 0004 7000 SHRA BKN014
PROB40 TEMPO 0023 23025G45KT=

Thanks Nic and Suzeman,

Suggs

I miss those, I could look at them and have a reasonable guess at the weather trends over the next few days. At least I can get to them on-line. The BBC even still have them on their website

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast/pressure/

Possibly been discussed to death already but just how bad is the internet in affecting flight deck decisions?

When we arrived at AMS today the wind was 240/25G32. There were long delays for 27 whereas 18R was wide open.

I can understand a few of the heavies having flown all night over the atlantic maybe opting for a delay, but for all the rest, is fear of pprune / youtube really that bad?

Tomorrow should be fun...

Often wondered...?
 

Wonder whether Chris or anyone else could explain what the "corrected" means for LHR. How come only London ever needs correcting on the Volmet? Can't think I've heard it used on any other volmet in Europe...

Cheers,

Duck

Haven't got a copy of the TAF (sorry) but STN is forecasting gusts of 65knots tomorrow morning. I thought Monday was supposed to be bad!!! Oh well, it'd be boring otherwise.:E

Corrected metar
 

MAN is another one that is regularly given as corrected. Not 100% sure of the reason, could it be that the data is gathered automatically rather than by human hand and is then adjusted before transmission?

Sorry for the slight thread drift but for those of you scoffing at what you consider to be the overly dramatic news coverage of Mondays storm, then maybe you would like to see the following. These are the scenes that met me when I finally made it home from EDI. I think you'll agree, they are quite shocking!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddz9-O5FR5Q

Now back to the thread and the next, fast approaching weather front.... From what I've seen, it's not gonna make it further south than the M25 so there's nothing to worry about then! :E

P.S. No ducks were harmed in the making of this film.

Quote:
Its all part of dumbing down - when's the last time you saw a synoptic chart on the BBC?

They still have them on Countryfile... (sunday morning)

PKPF68-77,

Two sites with forecast tephigrams:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...mps/temps.html

Can't tell you if the're any good

Cyclone

Quote from chrisr150 [Today, 11:26]:
Sorry for the simple SLF questions & possible thread drift, but would the windspeed at AMS last night be sufficient to reduce a/c groundspeed by a noticable margin?
[Unquote]
Surface W/V at 1955Z was 160/22-32. Schiphol area is very smooth, but – on the other hand – it was night-time, so you’d expect some nocturnal windshear, perhaps. My guess would be that the wind at 500ft would be about 180/40+. So the GS could be noticeably low on approach Rwy 18R.
[Particularly in a F27.] ;)

Quote from ls jet2:
Wonder whether Chris or anyone else could explain what the "corrected" means for LHR. How come only London ever needs correcting on the Volmet? Can't think I've heard it used on any other volmet in Europe...
[Unquote]
FCUK12 tells us [thanks...] that the 2-hr Trend Forecasts, still appended to some airfields like LHR, are prepared at the Met Office in EXETER (like the TAFs). The observer (ATCO?) is obviously not qualified to do it.
Think what probably happens sometimes is that the METAR is broadcast before the system has tacked the TREND on to the end of it. When the omission comes to someone’s attention, the METAR has to be reissued as a “COR!”.

Quote from fireflybob:
The trouble is that the weather has become "entertainment" - look at the trend to have "actors" presenting the weather who seem to have been trained also to be politically correct - bring back Bert Ford all is forgiven!
Its all part of dumbing down - when's the last time you saw a synoptic chart on the BBC?
[Unquote]

Agree with your sentiments, but not sure about Bert Ford - wasn't he the one who taught the padding-phrase "pushing (or any other present-participle) ITS WAY" to all his protégé(e)s? **
Sends me up the wall... :ugh:
The Dumfries librarian, on the other hand, was both wacky and cerebral. Fortunately, he's been succeeded by Rob M, who always has something interesting and different to impart, usually with dry humour, even if it's only his palindromic temperatures. Also, when at her best, Helen W is the "thinking man's crumpet".

Yes, BBC wants to use my involuntary licence fee to perpetuate the chattering-class prejudice that science and maths are fringe topics, that rarely justify inclusion in their output. And, when they have to be covered, they are generally presented in an increasingly apologetic and infantile style.
[Grumps]

**[Editing] Sorry, now realise I was confusing Bert F with a more recent (also retired) head-forecaster. :uhoh:

SLF having fun
 

Just landed at Dublin in the Saab Loganair from City of Derry airport. After reading the METAR I can imagine that the aircraft was close to the limits (maybe someone can confirm).

Personally I had a great time and enjoyed being thrown around. Person behind me was terrified of flying. Crew did a great job of making sure she was happy.

Yesterday morning I flew Newcastle to Belfast as SLF. Quite an impressive site seeing the cloud clear overhead IOM. Landing with blue sky and light breeze.

Personally I think the media are short on stories. Nothing that different compared to previous systems that have come in from the Atlantic. I guess the forcasted low pressure got people excited.

Anyway - SLF tomorrow morning to Brussels from Dublin

EIDW 111800Z 111904 24033G60KT 9999 SCT018 SCT040
TEMPO 1904 5000 SHRAGS FEW012 BKN018CB
TEMPO 2304 26045G70KT

EBBR 111800Z 120024 24018G32KT 9999 SCT018 SCT040
PROB40
TEMPO 0207 4500 SHRA SCT009 BKN013
TEMPO 0916 26025G42KT

Suggs,

The ICAO wind is the standard wind reading you are given.
It is the 2 min average including any gusts (greater than 10 kts above the average) in the last 10 mins.
Gatwick were passing both the ICAO and instant a lot yesterday because a lot of a/c were requesting the instant wind.

Stansted
 

Cloud Bunny was commenting on the Stansted TAF:

TAF EGSS 111655Z
12 0024 25020G35KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 0024 7000 SHRA BKN014
BECMG 0305 24028G45KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0412 25038G65KT
BECMG 1214 25020G32KT=

[This one courtesy of AvBrief.]

The 65-knot gust is only a 30% probability, so all book-Nigels would ignore it for planning purposes, OFFICIALLY.

Think Rwy 23's bearing is 223(T)? If the wind veered (in the gust) to - say - 263/65, that would give a crosswind component of about 40kts. Probably won't happen. :}

Latest METAR:
METAR EGSS 111950Z 26018G28KT 9999 FEW028 SCT040 09/05 Q0986=

Marvellous - I finally get around to doing my IR (due tomorrow!) and along comes the worst storm for what?...almost 20 years?!!! I think a delay to Friday is on the cards! Incidentally, for those that know, AFT is as priceless as ever!

EIDW ATC worth listening to at the mo', lots of go-arounds.

Just got back, chuffed to bits that me Discus is at Beatriz's house so I will be there asap!!!

Here comes the rest of the bad weather. Latest METARs...

EINN 120330Z 27031G50KT 9999 FEW018CB BKN040 BKN100 06/00 Q0994 NOSIG

EIDW 120330Z 26040G60KT 8000 RA SCT011 BKN018 03/02 Q0984 NOSIG

EGNM 120350Z 24026G41KT 190V270 7000 RASN FEW015 BKN020 03/01 Q0975

EGCC 120350Z 24043G54KT 9999 DZ BKN033 06/00 Q0979 TEMPO NSW

EGGP 120350Z 25041G53KT 9999 -RA BKN032 07/01 Q0979

:eek: :yuk:

Just got word that LPL is about to close due to the wind. Got an FCA stuck there trying to get down to BHX but we've an x-wind of 24G36 at the moment with severe turbulence in the TDZ due to the hangers :uhoh:

TCX B752 is just inbound MAN from LPL after operating a charter to Milan - So I guess Liverpool is still open. For the time being.

Why would that be?

Landed at Brum last night, ATC giving 240/20G41. Fortunately I wasn't flying it!

Total rubbish about LPL closing; I was the tower ATCO! FOD blowing about was the only concern so we did a runway check immediately before the few movements.

Quote from Chris Scott:

COR is automatically inserted into all METARs that are re-broadcast with a Trend appended. If for some reason the Trend doesn't get added the METAR should appear without it. Most online sources appear to strip out the COR anyway. Hope that helps.

Time wasting on the Volmet/ Reams of paper...
 

Hi FCUK12,

What you say makes sense, and does not contradict my main point. [Only applies to airfields that qualify for TREND forecasts.]
But your theory that the word "corrected" is removed (from the amended version of the METAR) - by whatever agency broadcasts the METARS - is not what seems to be happening in practice. This definitely applies to some agencies that present METARS on the web, and ls_jet2's comment about the London Volmet is correct (pun not intended).

It is all time-consuming, when you are desperate for an Actual. Whatever fireflybob says, you can't always get the destination ATIS in time for your descent brief, and not all our colleagues have data links like ACARS. And the ATIS rarely includes a TREND forecast, unless things have changed in the last 6 years.

Here is an up-to-the-minute example from AvBrief:
METAR EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005=
METAR COR EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005 TEMPO 28020G30KT=
METAR COR EGLL 121420Z 28023KT 9999 FEW049 11/M02 Q1005 TEMPO 28025G35KT=
METAR COR EGLL 121350Z 27024G35KT 9999 SCT049 11/M01 Q1004 NOSIG=
METAR EGLL 121320Z 28022G32KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1004=
COR EGLL 121320Z 28022G32KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1004 NOSIG=
METAR EGLL 121250Z 28022G34KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1003=
COR EGLL 121250Z 28022G34KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1003 NOSIG=

On the other hand, here are the same group of METARS from ADDS (Aviation Data Digital Service [USA]):
EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005 TEMPO 28020G30KT
EGLL 121420Z 28023KT 9999 FEW049 11/M02 Q1005 TEMPO 28025G35KT
EGLL 121350Z 27024G35KT 9999 SCT049 11/M01 Q1004 NOSIG
EGLL 121320Z 28022G32KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1004
EGLL 121250Z 28022G34KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1003

You will note that for the 1250 and 1320 METARS, the TRENDs are missing; they have tried to avoid clutter, perhaps; but have either failed to receive the "CORs", or failed to use them when they became available.
The 1450z, however, has come out well.

Now, the UK MetOffice website:
EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005 TEMPO 28020G30KT
http://secure.metoffice.gov.uk/lib/template/spacer.gif

So the UK Met Office seems to be interpreting its own output of METARs correctly - hardly surprising?


Just copied the LHR 1450z METAR on "London Volmet Main" (135.375MHz):

"London heathrow at 1450 corrected, Wind two-eight-zero degrees one-niner knots, CAV-O-K, Temperature one-one, Dew-point minus three, Q-N-H one-zero-zero-fife; Tempo- Wind two-eight-zero degrees two-zero knots maximum three-zero knots."

[Sorry, everyone, but the gales now seem to be dying out...] :rolleyes:

Not up in the frozen norf they're not. But this won't be on the news as

1 - the budget will now grab the headlines :{
2 - all this is going on North of Watford :}

Still 270-280 gusting 40kts at MAN with windshear reported and a couple of recent g/a which got in at the second attempt. Similar speeds at present at LPL and LBA

MAN TAF shows winds likely to decrease from 2300......

Suzeman

Regarding the LPL closure - I might be responsible for the start of that rumour, after telling FCA ops that Servisair were about to run for cover and not despatch any more aircraft.

Servisair decision was fine by me because I did not want to depart for BHX with winds gusting up to 60kts across the runway. Landing at Liverpool was bad enough with the wind just 10 or 20 degrees off the runway.

And Atcham Tower if that was you on the radio my I say thank you because without your string of wind reports in the last few hundred feet we would of gone round. Cheers.

Guzzler, don't blame you for staying there as things were starting to move around and I wasn't looking forward to going out to see what it was!! The turbulence coming off the hangers was making landing sporting at best, saw one baby arrival that looked very close to being No 1 engine first from where I was on stand 50.

Jonty were you in the ATR? On the RT it sounded like they landed in those conditions every leg.

Chris,

it depends a bit with the US data on foreign airports. First of all, they often are quite late and secondly, it depends strongly if they get properly propagated by the GTS system. Not always the case. I know of some applications which run off the US data, their METARS are always 1 behind due to the way the GTS input gets distributed into their cycle files of which ADDS and other applications are feeding. That way it can happen very well that COR's are not present.

Some other applications have the same problem. I've been fighting this end for e.g. GTS mauled messages to be still shown, particularly African TAF's which sometimes have whole sections in gobbledegook due to lousy datalines, but I'd rather have this TAF than none at all. But quite a few databases simply kill anything missing a character or two.

Best regards
AN2

Chris Scott, I agree but I don't think I said this! The company I work for doesn't have ACARS (I wish!).

One of the challenges with ATIS is co channel interference, one of the most classic ones is the EMA ATIS which is blasted out by CDG (I think) such that you cannot realistically copy same until the Luton area when approaching from the south. Apparently the DOC of arrival ATIS is only around 60 nm. But the same happened at MAN some time ago and when crews started filing reports with CHIRP they eventually changed the ATIS freq!! The weather isn't the only issue, it's the runway in use which if you second guess the wrong way requires a change of set up and brief whilst descending in some of the busiest airspace in Europe - a recipe for an altitude bust maybe?

Of course in the "olden days" on first contact with LATCC as well as the inbound routing STAR etc one was passed the Runway in use at destination. Presumably this was dropped due to issues of RT congestion and controller workload etc.

How low did it actually get?
 

The rumor was 940mb. What is the official lowest pressure recorded? :confused:

925.6 in Uk (1884) according to here, VC-10

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...rdlow1986.html

Lowest pressure this week?
 

Think Super VC-10 probably wanted the lowest QFF (okay, QNH will do) in the Thread episode, hellsbrink.

Or are you being deliberately facetious? :rolleyes:

During my limited researches, the lowest reported by METARs was about 950 hPa (millibars) at Shannon on Mar10/0600z-0630z. See my post#194:

EINN 100800Z 31010KT 9999 FEW010 SCT018CB BKN025 04/04 Q0954 NOSIG
EINN 100730Z 36004KT 9999 FEW014 SCT018CB BKN030 04/03 Q0952 NOSIG
EINN 100700Z 10005KT 9999 FEW014 SCT018CB BKN038 04/03 Q0951 NOSIG
EINN 100630Z 12008KT 9999 -SHRA FEW014 SCT018CB BKN036 04/03 Q0950 WS RWY06 NOSIG
EINN 100600Z 14017KT 9999 -SHRA FEW014 SCT018CB BKN033 04/03 Q0950 WS RWY06 NOSIG
EINN 100530Z 12021KT 8000 -SHRA FEW014 BKN018CB BKN023 04/03 Q0950 NOSIG
EINN 100500Z 12018KT 8000 -SHRA FEW014 BKN018CB BKN034 04/02 Q0951 NOSIG

The above observations seem to show one of the eyes (do you agree. FCUK12 and PKPF68-77?) of the complex depression moving eastwards in transit just south of Shannon aerodrome. Note the steep rise of pressure afterwards, and the reversal of wind direction during the couple of hours' passage. For further info, including an explanation of wind speeds near deep depressions, see PKPF68-77's Post #163.

[Strictly speaking, of course, a QNH does not represent the precise notional sea-level pressure at a station ("QFF"). This is because a QNH is merely a device to ensure that an ICAN-calibrated altimeter, situated at the station, reads the correct elevation amsl if the QNH is set on its sub-scale. In a deep/cool depression, it is unlikely that the local pressure lapse-rate would conform to the ICAN (standard atmosphere).]

No need to worry, though (what do you mean; you weren't?).:ouch: In the case of Shannon, the station elevation is about 45 ft amsl, so the "error" is negligible.

Another point to bear in mind is that 950 could represent a pressure as high as 950×5, because decimal-5s of pressure are always rounded down, for safety reasons.

Hope this helps. Did anyone get a lower one?

A simple case of misreading due to a lack of Earl Grey in the system, nothing more.

As far as the lowest that day, I've seen assorted figures ranging from 950 but nothing below that.

Forecasting in our youth
 

Quote from PKPF68-77:
Pretty awesome forecasting if you know what the skills were like over 30 years ago.
[Unquote]

How true. In his day, the mid and upper-air forecasting (on which all this hinges?) was fairly hit and miss. Was once crossing Holland en-route to to Germany in a Dakota (1968), and none of our planned drifts or ETAs were making much sense at FL070. The forecat W/V in the area was about 260/30. So we used the optical drift sight to confirm the actual drift (starb'd); and stopwatch for ground-speed (TAS was 140). On that basis, we estimated the actual wind was about 310/45.

As for the (westerly) sub-tropical jet, SNAKING over North Africa in winter, the direction in the 1970s was fequently 30 or 40 degrees out. This made an enormous difference to your drift and/or GS when it was blowing at 150 kts... And the strength was equally unreliable in those days.

This may have been contributory to the shooting down of a Libyan B727 by the Israelis in about 1978. The A/C was going from Tripoli to Cairo, and completely overshot its destination, finding itself over Israeli-occupied Sinai, where the Israelis assumed it was hostile.

By the 1990s, the computer-forecast en-route winds had become uncannily accurate...

Suggestion: compose a long reply using notepad, then copy'n'paste when you're happy with it: that way it won't get eaten by the system... :ok:

Thanks guys & gals. I did mean in the blow we had last week, but was interesting to see lowest ever. Am glad it wasn't a repeat of the 87 storm. :}