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Japan runway crash marks test of how new carbon jets cope in a disaster

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Old 5th Jan 2024, 00:19
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Japan runway crash marks test of how new carbon jets cope in a disaster

WASHINGTON/LONDON - The runway collision in Japan on Jan 2 marks the first time a modern lightweight airliner has burned down and is being seen as a test case for how well a new generation of carbon-composite planes copes with a catastrophic fire.
The crash "is really the first case study that we have, not only from a fire perspective, but also just from a crash survivability perspective", said Anthony Brickhouse, an air safety expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
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https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ja...-in-a-disaster
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Old 5th Jan 2024, 00:37
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Lots of 'experts' being quoted but what constitutes an expert? Anyone with an opinion it seems.
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Old 5th Jan 2024, 01:22
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Originally Posted by ZFT
Lots of 'experts' being quoted but what constitutes an expert? Anyone with an opinion it seems.
Well quite obviously, "expert" constitutes two parts - "ex", meaning 'has-been' and "spurt", meaning 'drip under pressure'.
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Old 5th Jan 2024, 02:02
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Originally Posted by ZFT
Lots of 'experts' being quoted but what constitutes an expert? Anyone with an opinion it seems.
I think the point of the article is that until now there has been very limited data from which to develop expertise?
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Old 5th Jan 2024, 06:37
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The crash "is really the first case study that we have, not only from a fire perspective, but also just from a crash survivability perspective", said Anthony Brickhouse, an air safety expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
Great name for someone who studies strength and fire resistance.
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Old 5th Jan 2024, 06:39
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"… first time …"

See: Flight 358, A340, 2 August 2005, Toronto Airport, Canada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_358

Similarities, but 'safe'; time - effect relationship was sufficient for evacuation.
Pprune discussion at that time speculated contribution of independent oxygen generators in cabin overhead.
But not to overlook fuel from the aircraft(s) damage as the accelerant.

N.B. Wings / fuel tanks intact.
What are the structural / material differences between cabin and wing.




Edit: and B777
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asiana...nes_Flight_214



Last edited by safetypee; 5th Jan 2024 at 07:37. Reason: B777 ref
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Old 5th Jan 2024, 18:01
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I think there will be a great deal of study of this accident and to how well the carbon composite construction held up compared to what could have been expected of aluminum - both for fire protection and for the effect of the impact with the Dash 8.

That being said, at least according to a Wall Street Journal article - it took nearly 18 minutes (from initial impact) before the aircraft was full evacuated. Sounds like the carbon composite fuselage held up as pretty well...
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 15:03
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Flammability Properties of Aircraft Carbon-Fiber Structural Composite

https://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/pdf/07-57.pdf

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_...unway_disaster

Everyone already out




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Old 6th Jan 2024, 15:08
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How do you investigate a few buckets of carbon shards?
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 16:06
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Originally Posted by tdracer
That being said, at least according to a Wall Street Journal article - it took nearly 18 minutes (from initial impact) before the aircraft was full evacuated. Sounds like the carbon composite fuselage held up as pretty well...
It is a bit disingenuous quoting the evacuation took 18 minutes. According to this report https://theaircurrent.com/feed/dispa...enger-footage/ 11 minutes of that time was the captain making 100% sure there was no-one left on the aircraft before he "abandoned ship" himself. If that is true, then everyone (bar the captain) was off in 7 minutes.
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 17:46
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Aluminum vs Carbon Fiber Epoxy in Fire Aluminum has a low melting point compared to many other metals; so offers little shielding to fuselage components. Carbon fiber with epoxy in this case seems to have held up longer.

I am wondering if a 777 in the same situation and evacuation duration would have had as good a passenger survival outcome.

Whatever is burning, the combustion products are toxic and incapacitating. Survivors of smoke inhalation may end up with reduced lung function and shortened lifespans. Firefighters typically have few years post retirement.
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 18:33
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Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer
Well quite obviously, "expert" constitutes two parts - "ex", meaning 'has-been' and "spurt", meaning 'drip under pressure'.
Brilliant! Too True though
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 22:26
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Originally Posted by Lomon
It is a bit disingenuous quoting the evacuation took 18 minutes. According to this report https://theaircurrent.com/feed/dispa...enger-footage/ 11 minutes of that time was the captain making 100% sure there was no-one left on the aircraft before he "abandoned ship" himself. If that is true, then everyone (bar the captain) was off in 7 minutes.
You totally missed the point of that statement!
There were 18 minutes between impact (where the fire started), and the point where the aircraft was fully evacuated. The point is not that it took 18 minutes, it's that the fuselage provided protection from the fire for 18 minutes! Never did I question why it took that long - there is plenty of that going on in the existing thread in the accident forum.

18 minutes is pretty damn good - as others have speculated, I doubt aluminum would have held up that well for that long...

As I posted, there will be no shortage of study of how the carbon composite construction fared, compared to conventional aluminum (as well as ways both could potentially be improved). During the development stage of the (similarly constructed) 787, there was plenty of nay-sayer speculation that carbon composite wouldn't provide the same level of protection as aluminum in an accident - my initial impressions from this accident say those critics were rather dramatically wrong...
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Old 7th Jan 2024, 12:48
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Originally Posted by tdracer
You totally missed the point of that statement!
There were 18 minutes between impact (where the fire started), and the point where the aircraft was fully evacuated. The point is not that it took 18 minutes, it's that the fuselage provided protection from the fire for 18 minutes! Never did I question why it took that long - there is plenty of that going on in the existing thread in the accident forum.

18 minutes is pretty damn good - as others have speculated, I doubt aluminum would have held up that well for that long...

As I posted, there will be no shortage of study of how the carbon composite construction fared, compared to conventional aluminum (as well as ways both could potentially be improved). During the development stage of the (similarly constructed) 787, there was plenty of nay-sayer speculation that carbon composite wouldn't provide the same level of protection as aluminum in an accident - my initial impressions from this accident say those critics were rather dramatically wrong...
It wasn't necessarily a dig at you or anyone on the forum, but more the way the media is portraying the time taken for the evacuation - as if 18 minutes was a long time to get 379 people off an aircraft rather than the triumph and bravery that was getting all the passengers and crew off in 7 minutes and then spending another 11 minutes in a burning airframe checking to be 100% sure that everyone they were responsible for had been safely evacuated.
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 06:47
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See link; early signs of fire inside the cabin.
Plastic windows melt before structure ?
Note internal smoke hazard.

Also note outcome fire pattern appears to be top-down from the roof (several aircraft), which might further indicate an inside-out fire.

[How many mobile lithium batteries remained on board - an intense fire might only require one to sustain it?]

JAL incident at Haneda Airport

Re; "passengers and crew off in 7 minutes" … after the aircraft was stationary. Evacuation timings are normally assessed from the moment that the crew command an evacuation; i.e ignores time before-hand required to understand the situation and decide to evacuate.

Last edited by safetypee; 8th Jan 2024 at 07:32. Reason: Re Time
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 13:30
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How do operators survive these accidents? That's a considerable dollar loss to recuperate, or is the hull fully insured?
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 13:42
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I would be very very careful, I remember a Harrier crash in Germany and it burnt, the crash team were walking around kicking up dust and inhaled the fibres that literally shredded their lungs.
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 13:58
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
How do operators survive these accidents? That's a considerable dollar loss to recuperate, or is the hull fully insured?
Insurance went up for pretty much anything that flies thanks to the Boeing Max crashes, so it seems like they all have insurance
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 14:00
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
How do operators survive these accidents? That's a considerable dollar loss to recuperate, or is the hull fully insured?
Is that a serious question? I miss when this forum was for professional pilots.
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 18:37
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Originally Posted by safetypee

Everyone already out
Have another look in the cockpit, they were last to leave 18 minutes after landing.
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