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Chinese Spy Balloon loitering over continental US

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Chinese Spy Balloon loitering over continental US

Old 3rd Feb 2023, 22:40
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Er, doesn't that normally rely on there being someone on board to do the necessary ?
Why would you need a person to release gas or ballast? Seems like it would be a simple servo design operating a valve or actuator.

Last edited by Winemaker; 4th Feb 2023 at 02:46. Reason: spelling
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Old 3rd Feb 2023, 22:48
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Matt2725
They did destroy a satellite in orbit with an F-15 once, so not out of the question.
But the missile used for that purpose cost in the order of 50 million Dollars (the original plan was to deploy 112 of them at a total cost of 5.3 billion $, so roughly 50 a piece - from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASM-135_ASAT). Apart from the fact that probably no operational missiles remain, it would be a rather expensive way to get rid of a harmless photo balloon...
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Old 3rd Feb 2023, 23:20
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Why would you need a person to release gas or ballast? Seems like it would be a simple servo design operation a valve or actuator.
Commanded by whom, from where ?

Are you suggesting that the balloon is being controlled remotely from Beijing ?

Or that the entire mission is being performed autonomously, presumably to follow a pre-defined track (otherwise there wouldn't be any point in having a manoeuvring capability) ?

Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it.
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Old 3rd Feb 2023, 23:34
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it.
Winds aloft at 53K relatively benign; at 60K probably more so. Just a relaxed scenic drive across the U.S.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 01:37
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See other thread, bang, self-destructed or shot down.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 02:10
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
See other thread, bang, self-destructed or shot down.
But the other thread Twitter video allegedly was shot in Billings, MT. Balloon was sighted in Kanas City and then further east toward St. Louis. Does not compute.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 02:11
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Commanded by whom, from where ?

Are you suggesting that the balloon is being controlled remotely from Beijing ?

Or that the entire mission is being performed autonomously, presumably to follow a pre-defined track (otherwise there wouldn't be any point in having a manoeuvring capability) ?

Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it.
Considering we have the capability to control a drone - up to and including firing deadly weapons - from the other side of the world, is it really such a stretch that they could be controlling a balloon?
Besides, they'd want some sort of downlink for the acquired data.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 02:16
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Commanded by whom, from where ?

Are you suggesting that the balloon is being controlled remotely from Beijing ?

Or that the entire mission is being performed autonomously, presumably to follow a pre-defined track (otherwise there wouldn't be any point in having a manoeuvring capability) ?

Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it.
Certainly (as to being controlled remotely). They are receiving some sort of data from the machine or there's no point in flying it. Communications could easily go in both directions to change altitude. Agreed, the wind will decide its ultimate fate; I understand it is now over the state of Missouri.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 02:17
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Originally Posted by BFSGrad
But the other thread Twitter video allegedly was shot in Billings, MT. Balloon was sighted in Kanas City and then further east toward St. Louis. Does not compute.
Good point. So that falling object was what then, the reported second one?
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 02:35
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Second spy balloon is reported to be transiting Latin America.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 03:14
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Originally Posted by BFSGrad
Second spy balloon is reported to be transiting Latin America.
It’s over Costa Rica. I wonder what ”nefarious activity” the Pentagon will claim the Chinese are doing there?? /s

Seriously guys, if any of you were semi ardent FR24 watchers you’d know from time to time ADS-B positions of high altitude balloons (FL600 or above) were displayed, often several at a time. This is no new thing.

What We Know About The High-Altitude Balloons Recently Lingering Off America’s Coastlines

I think just because the word “China” has been mentioned has sent everyone into a panic.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 05:50
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A look at HISTORY: In the 1990s, a met balloon once went astray over Canada. F16s shot at it, without effect. It crossed the atlantic, went to Finnland after a tiny detour into Russia.
For that, NOTAM were issued.
Where are the NOTAM for this balloon ??
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 05:52
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What the balloon is really doing:

https://i.imgur.com/RqUcU9W.jpeg
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 08:01
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"Explosion in the sky" above Montana. According to the daily mail.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-airspace.html
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 08:56
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Are we really suggesting that the object could survive overflight of Montana with 1.1 million gun-totin', MAGA wearin' Good 'Ol Boys with their assault rifles?

My guess is the USAF are looking for a way to retrieve the object intact for maximum intelligence value. When they figure out they can't do that effectively...... then they will shoot it down.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 08:56
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
It would be illuminating, if not downright amusing for someone to explain just how Uncle Sam is supoosed to 'down' a balloon. Surveillance balloons tend to fly in the stratosphere way above the service cieling of most, if not all fighters which in any case are not equipped with any weapon that could credibly deflate a balloon. Perhaps a very close (feet away) supersonic pass might do the trick but you'd probably need an X15 or SR71 to get that high - if you were lucky and the balloon was low enough..
exactly this, the intelligence on whether they can get up to it, and how, is far more important than what the balloon is doing (if anything).

If they get an F22 up to it, they just found out what the service ceiling of an F22 is.

I met an F4 pilot that had been up to 70,000’
He explained how the engines flame out, and you have to come down a bit to reignite them.

I wonder what the service ceiling of an F22 is, I wonder if the Chinese can now tell you.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 09:03
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"If they get an F22 up to it, they just found out what the service ceiling of an F22 is."

I'm sure they've known that for many years - they have human agents, they listen to what people say in industry forums and bars, they break into people's computers

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Old 4th Feb 2023, 09:13
  #58 (permalink)  
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kghjfg
I wonder what the service ceiling of an F22 is,
As I recall from talking to the F22 demo pilot in KOSH the aircrat is "limited" to 85.000 ft, which would be in any case well above the 60.000 this balloon is reported to be. But what use to know if an F-22 can go up to 60.000ft ? , a basic old Lear jet 45 can cruise at 51.000 ft...
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 10:10
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Er, doesn't that normally rely on there being someone on board to do the necessary ?
RPAS can be controlled from the other side of the planet. Not too much imagination required to see how you can control a few hooks and a flap over a hole.
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Old 4th Feb 2023, 10:24
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Originally Posted by kghjfg
I met an F4 pilot that had been up to 70,000’
He explained how the engines flame out, and you have to come down a bit to reignite them.
That made me chuckle; it was worded as though the first option was to stay up at 70,000' and continue trying to relight until giving up and deciding to come down lower to try again.
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