Risk of contracting virus on airplanes - perspective
PilotLZ
I'd surely agree that the distancing rules are haphazard and very unevenly applied, but think aviation stands out as a fairly uniform globally regulated service, hence unavoidably the poster child for whatever rules are eventually set. In that context, the adjacent or middle seat is probably toast.
As an aside, here in NYC, restaurants and bars are outdoor seating only and cabs already have separation barriers, so the curtailments are not aviation only.,
I'd surely agree that the distancing rules are haphazard and very unevenly applied, but think aviation stands out as a fairly uniform globally regulated service, hence unavoidably the poster child for whatever rules are eventually set. In that context, the adjacent or middle seat is probably toast.
As an aside, here in NYC, restaurants and bars are outdoor seating only and cabs already have separation barriers, so the curtailments are not aviation only.,
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Pub
Posts: 50
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The industry failed to realize the burden on the passangers already before covid. There is considerable prep time, administration, coordination going into airline travel on the customers side. Everyone is their own travel agent these days. The amount of work and the cost and the nagging with check-in and security and boarding has its limits. The traveling public already made their threat assessment and risk-reward analysis, so they ditched all unnecessary travel. They have no patience for gimmicks, non-refund policies, while the airlines are stil seemingly trying to sell an old product.
There is a trust breakdown as well. Airlines and airports were all about safetysafetymoresafety and now they spectacularly failed to mitigate the biggest safety matter of the day, this may add to the perceived threat. Travelers are possibly consciously or unconsciously holding airlines responsible for their contribution to the pandemic.
There is a trust breakdown as well. Airlines and airports were all about safetysafetymoresafety and now they spectacularly failed to mitigate the biggest safety matter of the day, this may add to the perceived threat. Travelers are possibly consciously or unconsciously holding airlines responsible for their contribution to the pandemic.
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Livin de island life
Posts: 479
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A large proportion of travel is for pleasure and liesure. If it ain’t fun and not necessary, it can be deleted. Travel and hospitality is going to suffer for a long time. No way round it.
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The short-term situation is not pretty. But, long-term, it seems less and less likely that many people will embrace some weird "new normal", devoid of mobility and live human contact.
Lack of live interaction on the job has a serious impact on both relationships between workers and job satisfaction, which, in turn, reduces productivity. Work is not solely about performing some menial tasks to get a paycheck in the end of the month. It's something far broader than that. And, while many are not allowed to hold live meetings now and go for dinners with their business partners, this will likely not go on forever. Routine tasks will be transferred online (and that has been a trend for many years now, so it doesn't come as a surprise). But live interaction will still remain an essential part of the deal - just because this is how humans function.
It's not just a matter of individual choice but also of policy. While many governments encouraged home office at first, now the trend has already been reversed in many places. People start being encouraged to return to their workplaces - and for a couple of very good reasons. If everyone starts working from home, this will bring a lot of damage to the local economy. Commuting will no longer be a thing, so transport companies will shrink and fire personnel. Small businesses in business areas, e.g. coffee shops and barber shops, will fold up because there won't be anyone going there. Office buildings will become empty, resulting not only in job losses among the personnel managing and running them, but also in turning entire once-prosperous areas into eerie ghost towns - which, in turn, will depreciate any property situated there. Construction and real estate companies will start going under en masse. Banks will wake up to the news that the equity which secures their loans is now worth just a fraction of what it used to be.
Does this sound desirable so far? If yes, here's the possible continuation of the story... If the worker is working online and doesn't have to be physically present at any given place, then why pay them a first-world level salary? Instead, you can fire all the local workers and hire people from third-world countries instead, who are just as qualified but will be happy to do the online job for a half, a third or a quarter of the money the local will be asking for. If you think that this cannot happen, do some research on where about the call centres of many major Western companies are located. Outsourcing distance work to lower-standard countries is already a fact.
So, if we allow ourselves to become deluded enough to allow for "the new normal" to happen... Well, then we probably deserve it.
Lack of live interaction on the job has a serious impact on both relationships between workers and job satisfaction, which, in turn, reduces productivity. Work is not solely about performing some menial tasks to get a paycheck in the end of the month. It's something far broader than that. And, while many are not allowed to hold live meetings now and go for dinners with their business partners, this will likely not go on forever. Routine tasks will be transferred online (and that has been a trend for many years now, so it doesn't come as a surprise). But live interaction will still remain an essential part of the deal - just because this is how humans function.
It's not just a matter of individual choice but also of policy. While many governments encouraged home office at first, now the trend has already been reversed in many places. People start being encouraged to return to their workplaces - and for a couple of very good reasons. If everyone starts working from home, this will bring a lot of damage to the local economy. Commuting will no longer be a thing, so transport companies will shrink and fire personnel. Small businesses in business areas, e.g. coffee shops and barber shops, will fold up because there won't be anyone going there. Office buildings will become empty, resulting not only in job losses among the personnel managing and running them, but also in turning entire once-prosperous areas into eerie ghost towns - which, in turn, will depreciate any property situated there. Construction and real estate companies will start going under en masse. Banks will wake up to the news that the equity which secures their loans is now worth just a fraction of what it used to be.
Does this sound desirable so far? If yes, here's the possible continuation of the story... If the worker is working online and doesn't have to be physically present at any given place, then why pay them a first-world level salary? Instead, you can fire all the local workers and hire people from third-world countries instead, who are just as qualified but will be happy to do the online job for a half, a third or a quarter of the money the local will be asking for. If you think that this cannot happen, do some research on where about the call centres of many major Western companies are located. Outsourcing distance work to lower-standard countries is already a fact.
So, if we allow ourselves to become deluded enough to allow for "the new normal" to happen... Well, then we probably deserve it.
Lets concentrate on what we know about - aviation - and not speculate on coffee bars.
As I have posted before, I believe a vaccine is imminent. There are three vaccines in P3 trials which are known to produce a relevant immune response, and only one has significant side effects. Many more are but a few months behind. Regulators in the UK and US have indicated they will look at awarding a EUA (emergency use authorisation) based on what are known as ~50 and ~100 events - basically interim results. Meantime vaccine is being manufactured on a risk basis by the pharmaceutical companies.
I will stick my neck out further and say critical workers may be vaccinated in Q4 2020 and potentially the US public by January. The issue will be persuading people to fly en masse. As has been said above, business travel may be dramatically reduced by new working patterns, whilst pleasure flying may be reduced by anti vaxxers plus more interest in domestic holidays plus reduced spending power and increased unemployment.
The airline industry could do worse then plan to maximise take up from this reducing customer pool by dealing with lilpilot's spot on post about the burden on passengers. Quite frankly flying as a pax is a pain, is uncomfortable, and stressful. How about a flying passport with all your passport data, visa or ESTA data, frequent flyer, Covid-19 vaccine status etc etc loaded. If airlines provided a smart card where you enter the membership number to book and simply show it with your passport we could remove so much hassle. Then look at pricing software, terminal handling etc etc.
The airlines arent flying planes. If they dont spend the time planning the new normal for those passengers who are willing to return, they deserve to fail.
As I have posted before, I believe a vaccine is imminent. There are three vaccines in P3 trials which are known to produce a relevant immune response, and only one has significant side effects. Many more are but a few months behind. Regulators in the UK and US have indicated they will look at awarding a EUA (emergency use authorisation) based on what are known as ~50 and ~100 events - basically interim results. Meantime vaccine is being manufactured on a risk basis by the pharmaceutical companies.
I will stick my neck out further and say critical workers may be vaccinated in Q4 2020 and potentially the US public by January. The issue will be persuading people to fly en masse. As has been said above, business travel may be dramatically reduced by new working patterns, whilst pleasure flying may be reduced by anti vaxxers plus more interest in domestic holidays plus reduced spending power and increased unemployment.
The airline industry could do worse then plan to maximise take up from this reducing customer pool by dealing with lilpilot's spot on post about the burden on passengers. Quite frankly flying as a pax is a pain, is uncomfortable, and stressful. How about a flying passport with all your passport data, visa or ESTA data, frequent flyer, Covid-19 vaccine status etc etc loaded. If airlines provided a smart card where you enter the membership number to book and simply show it with your passport we could remove so much hassle. Then look at pricing software, terminal handling etc etc.
The airlines arent flying planes. If they dont spend the time planning the new normal for those passengers who are willing to return, they deserve to fail.
Agree entirely, this is one of the few posts to focus on the potential for alleviating many of the headaches afflicting air travel.
Obviously the passport idea has merit, making it robust should be a priority for the global air transport industry. Does IATA still function as a forward looking body?
Longer term, it may be that even with a vaccine passengers will reject current crowding. Although more draggy, perhaps much wider aircraft designs will be needed.
Obviously the passport idea has merit, making it robust should be a priority for the global air transport industry. Does IATA still function as a forward looking body?
Longer term, it may be that even with a vaccine passengers will reject current crowding. Although more draggy, perhaps much wider aircraft designs will be needed.
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Borders
Posts: 28
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Specifically thinking about the UK: the British public have consistently demonstrated that their two weeks in the sun is sacrosanct, and they’ll do whatever they can to get their Summer holiday. With that in mind, and bearing in my mind the huge consolidation in the leisure travel market in the UK over the past decade or so, I tend to think the UK package travel industry is likely to prove fairly robust.
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: CA, USA
Age: 65
Posts: 10
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
One possible solution that I am seriously considering this fully enclosed hazmat suit my upcoming transatlantic flight - at $245 it does not seem to be too expensive in terms of peace of mind. The question is whether it will be approved by the FAA (issues with flammability/evacuations?).
I cannot post links, please google "Can This ‘Hazmat Suit For Flying’ Save Air Travel".
I cannot post links, please google "Can This ‘Hazmat Suit For Flying’ Save Air Travel".
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 260
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There is a trust breakdown as well. Airlines and airports were all about safetysafetymoresafety and now they spectacularly failed to mitigate the biggest safety matter of the day, this may add to the perceived threat. Travelers are possibly consciously or unconsciously holding airlines responsible for their contribution to the pandemic.
IATA and WHO have both used EASA information to show that the air purity inside a modern airliner is similar to that in an operating theatre.Masks can be of use to stop someone unwittingly (or otherwise?) being on board with this 'thing' from spreading it to anyone in their immediate vicinity. (I have flown as pax on a full airliner with everyone wearing masks most of the time, showing that it can be done.) Maybe this is a way of increasing passenger confidence? However, even though air travel is demonstrably by far the safest form of travel, you still have those with an irrational fear of it. This, even though it may be shown to be as safe, will have those with yet another layer of irrational fear to add to the problems of confidence. Some form of 'health passport' may help alleviate this?
PilotLZ is perfectly correct. Humans need interaction. And travel is important to that interaction. The world needs travel. Economies need travel. It needs to get going again as fast as possible.
(Future travel should possibly restrict travel from areas that are not as open and honest about health problems.)
To sum up, the risk of contracting virus on aeroplanes is much, much lower than in all sorts of other activities that people seem quite happy to want to take part in.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Wintermute
Posts: 76
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
However I think your statement is absolute BS. Without exception every time I sit (well sat) on a flight near a snot drooling chimp I end up with whatever said snot drooling chimp has a few days later . . . anybody who has ever travelled know this is the case. In the olden days this was a pain, now it may kill me . . .
So, I, and many others, will use this learned data to determine risk, not some BS you pulled off a website . . . ;-)
the air purity inside a modern airliner is similar to that in an operating theatre
Masks can be of use to stop someone unwittingly (or otherwise?) being on board with this 'thing' from spreading it to anyone in their immediate vicinity
So an aircraft is only 'safe' if you guarantee nobody is shedding virus (in practice that means 14 days isolation, a PCR swab and nobody from a high attack rate area - impossible) and everyone is trained and fitted with full PPE. Again impossible.
the risk of contracting virus on aeroplanes is much, much lower than in all sorts of other activities that people seem quite happy to want to take part in.
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 260
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Oh dear. The 'glass half empty' people are back.
(Out of interest, from that quote -- where am I 'obsessed with blame'? I see that logic plays no part in some comments.)
Prove that you "... end up with whatever said snot drooling chimp has a few days later . . .". How do you know exactly what 'he' had and that you didn't catch it from somewhere else?
Flying is still the safest form of transport. If you don't like it I suggest that you stay huddled up at home: Stepping outdoors is not safe for you.
But for everyone else, as soon as you can get back to enjoying travelling again.
(Out of interest, from that quote -- where am I 'obsessed with blame'? I see that logic plays no part in some comments.)
Prove that you "... end up with whatever said snot drooling chimp has a few days later . . .". How do you know exactly what 'he' had and that you didn't catch it from somewhere else?
Flying is still the safest form of transport. If you don't like it I suggest that you stay huddled up at home: Stepping outdoors is not safe for you.
But for everyone else, as soon as you can get back to enjoying travelling again.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: North by Northwest
Posts: 476
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Not at all half empty. I am quite enjoying working from home - 90% of the DoD workforce is teleworking, senior leadership tells us that we are more productive and have no plans to return to full staffing on base, and that teleworking will be a large part of our new normal permanently. I don't have to spend 3 hours in a car to get to/from work, sit in useless meeting after meeting, gulp down lunch while on the phone. I can start work at o-dark-thirty and spend an hour on the treadmill for lunch, complete my day at 4:30 after many productive VTCs and telecons. I have two computers running - one for VTCs and the other for email and document creation. I have better network performance, clearer conversations and visuals which are just as good as personal interactions given the folks I'm talking with are 2500 miles away and not on site in any case and despite being "mission essential" I am prohibited from TDY unless I can get a GO to sign off. I have zero desire to fly despite having hundreds of thousands of miles queued up for a Hawaiian vacation and more. Sorry, Hawaii is closed. I do have a desire to see my children and I love to drive. Camper in the future - bought the truck last weekend. God willing, in five years maybe Hawaii will be open, COVID under control, and I'll still be around and then I'll consider the risk. For now, local food store and outdoor restauranting is enough. Been flying since 1956 and no desire to return. Sorry.
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There's one more thing to factor in when it comes to those polar, "avoid flying at all costs" opinions. Those people might still be experiencing PTSD from the entire thing. Understandably so - it was a nightmare for everyone! But, as time passes, less and less people will retain the fears that resulted from lockdown, media hysteria etc.
People fear all sorts of things when flying, to crash, bombs on board and now infections. Irrational or not, it's better to not blame them for it or call them stupid but deal with their fears. Travel means many people in tight spots, security lines, people movers, cabins. The entire travel environment is just not set up for any separation. On the other hand practically people just cannot travel to many places as borders are closed or only half open and many people don't have the money to spend now. Corona is far from over it looks like at least local hotspots are coming back. This will go on for a while it seems.
As reported in today's Times, our friends in Ryanair have predictably been the first to monetise people's preference to avoid sitting next to strangers. They always have done this, of course, but the perception is that the system now deliberately sits those who don't pay as close as possible to the other cheapskates, leaving rows of seats empty. Ryanair's form over the years suggests that this perception is probably accurate.
I get it that if "you" (generic) are young, fit and healthy, you may think this has all been overblown.
OTOH there really are people out there in the community who aren't suffering from PTSD, recognise bad science/bad reporting when they see it but objectively fall into one of the at risk groups..due medical history, whatever. A lot of long haul passengers on some routes would certainly fall into the "at risk due to age" bracket..the way to get them back, flying to see extended family again, is not to berate them for being hysterical or falling for media hype, it's for the airlines/airports to up their game when it comes to being clean and tidy..
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Having a margarita on the beach
Posts: 2,423
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
b1lanc
On the other hand, I personally know an awful lot of office workers of different industries that enjoyed smart working for the first few weeks but as of today totally hate it.
A lot of people are smart working while nannies are taking care of screaming kids at home, You turn your head around You and see nobody but the wall and at the end of the day think to Yourself "well I was home today, worked from home, then spent an hour at my home gym and then went back upstairs for dinner. Finally a bit of tv before bed time, at home". This is not the way people want to spend the rest of their life, people need social interactions and it does not mean only on Friday nights at the bar but on their everyday's life.
Same considerations for vacations and last minutes escapes ; people will just catch any flight when all this mess will be over and enjoy being together again as it has always been.
On the other hand, I personally know an awful lot of office workers of different industries that enjoyed smart working for the first few weeks but as of today totally hate it.
A lot of people are smart working while nannies are taking care of screaming kids at home, You turn your head around You and see nobody but the wall and at the end of the day think to Yourself "well I was home today, worked from home, then spent an hour at my home gym and then went back upstairs for dinner. Finally a bit of tv before bed time, at home". This is not the way people want to spend the rest of their life, people need social interactions and it does not mean only on Friday nights at the bar but on their everyday's life.
Same considerations for vacations and last minutes escapes ; people will just catch any flight when all this mess will be over and enjoy being together again as it has always been.