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Middle East majors to dominate international travel?

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Middle East majors to dominate international travel?

Old 1st May 2020, 16:45
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Middle East majors to dominate international travel?

Is it not obvious that the 3 vastly wealthy states are set to take over many of the world's long haul routes once the large state carriers elsewhere have shrunk dramatically? I may be naive about this, but it strikes me that the 3 airlines which are underwritten by sovereign wealth funds can withstand the economic pressures faced by the rest of the world's carriers. Particularly as fuel supplies for the oil-rich states are cheap and limitless.

Clearly travel rules could be altered to prevent this, but it as things stand, the likes of BA, LH, AF, KLM, IB, SK, AZ, CX, JL, and Chinese carriers could stand to lose significant market share. The US, Canadian and South American majors are also exposed on their routes to Europe it would seem.

Now I may be looking at this situation simplistically, but am concluding that state support to keep many airlines afloat and strong is vital for the long run.

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Old 1st May 2020, 17:18
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All for it in principle as long as these same Companies do not plead poverty and ask for Government hand outs whilst paying out Dividends. Or is that too simplistic?
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Old 1st May 2020, 18:37
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Originally Posted by RoyHudd View Post
Is it not obvious that the 3 vastly wealthy states are set to take over many of the world's long haul routes once the large state carriers elsewhere have shrunk dramatically?

How does Emirates or Qatar take over LHR - JFK or LAX - NRT?. There still will be a market for direct routes as opposed to staging through the ME.

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Old 1st May 2020, 18:43
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Originally Posted by cashash View Post
How does Emirates or Qatar take over LHR - JFK or LAX - NRT?. There still will be a market for direct routes as opposed to staging through the ME.
Emirates already have some flights out of a couple of European airports to North America. Malpensa and Athens if I am not mistaken.
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Old 1st May 2020, 19:01
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Not to mention, with oil prices in the cellar, those countries may not have as much wealth available...
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Old 1st May 2020, 19:07
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Originally Posted by Intruder View Post
Not to mention, with oil prices in the cellar, those countries may not have as much wealth available...
Gotta love some of the head in the sand responses. The importance of their airlines to these economies is big for sure. Their wealth is enormous, and their employment laws far less limiting, rightly or wrongly. They will protect their investments, and can do so.
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Old 1st May 2020, 19:36
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And don’t forget that Qatar owns 25% of IAG (British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, LEVEL).
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Old 1st May 2020, 20:43
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Originally Posted by Intruder
Not to mention, with oil prices in the cellar, those countries may not have as much wealth available...
Dubai doesn't really have much in the way of oil revenue these days! Abu Dhabi has far larger reserves. Dubai depends more upon tourism, finance and services for it's GDP.

Just sayin'...
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Old 1st May 2020, 20:47
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Originally Posted by Banana Joe View Post
Emirates already have some flights out of a couple of European airports to North America. Malpensa and Athens if I am not mistaken.
But it isnt much better going from LHR - MXP - JFK than going LHR - DXB - JFK, you are still throwing in an extra stopover.

Unless Emirates get rights to fly direct to the US from the UK how are they going to be much competition to US or UK airlines on that route?.

Also I thought that the latest thinking in the industry was that we were moving away from the Hub model to direct city to city flights.
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Old 1st May 2020, 20:51
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Originally Posted by cashash
Unless Emirates get rights to fly direct to the US from the UK how are they going to be much competition to US or UK airlines on that route?
Watch this space... I've been thinking along the same lines as R Hudd...
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Old 1st May 2020, 21:53
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Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
Watch this space... I've been thinking along the same lines as R Hudd...
Yeah - and you never know, Tim Clark may allow the flight crew overseas basings to carry it out...


Christmas might come this year after all..
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Old 1st May 2020, 22:10
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We will need to wait for the dust to settle and see which airlines survive and which sadly don't and what opportunities may exist. If there is insufficient demand for existing capacity out of their home bases in the Gulf and if traffic rights were secured elsewhere, then it could be a savvy move to deploy surplus capacity to new markets, if demand exists.

What is more complex, is trying to establish what has happened behind the scenes after a number of US legacy airlines lobbied the White House over perceived unfair competition against Gulf airlines. Discussions between Qatar/UAE and the US nearly two years ago, resulted in mixed messages from the US with one of Trump's trade advisers, who is a staunch nationalist and sided with the US airlines, publically contradicting the more toned down State Department version of what was agreed. Cue numerous revised and at times confusing press releases, with the outside world being left to read in between the lines and guess what was agreed.

If the US airlines were complaining during good times, then I can't imagine they will roll over and happily see any of the ME3 look at expanding across the North Atlantic from Europe.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 00:30
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I think it's a little naive to think the European governments will allow their own airlines to fail leading the 100,000s of redundancies and at the same time allow foreign airlines to take up capacity. That's how you lose elections. Obviously it sounds very appealing to those employed by the middle east 3 but for everyone else it stinks.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:15
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I’m assuming the one that cannot be named is one of the big 3....

Their foreign airline investment portfolio has made truly spectacular returns. Said nobody ever.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 13:21
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Singapore airlines already flies SIN-MAN-IAH so would it be out of the question for them or EK/EY/QR to fly onward to JFK or even to MCO as the charter fleets are now decimated from MAN and more so if VS go belly up.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 19:04
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It is not about specific routes. Obviously there are many US/Canada -Europe direct routes that will not be of interest to the big 3. Ditto Europe-S. America. And US/Canada-Far East. Those are clear to anyone with a brain. And Europe to Far East trunk routes will stay clear for those few that don't want 3-4 hours in the terminals of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Qatar, and can pay for it. . Business travel. But N.America/Europe economy/premium economy travel to ME and Far East will be taken by the sheikhs like never before. Which is a large proportion of international travel, esp from the UK and Europe. That is where our weakened airlines will no longer be free to compete.

Boneheads please stop picking routes that won't be of interest to the ME 3. They are obvious.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 19:18
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Originally Posted by zfw View Post
Singapore airlines already flies SIN-MAN-IAH so would it be out of the question for them or EK/EY/QR to fly onward to JFK or even to MCO as the charter fleets are now decimated from MAN and more so if VS go belly up.
AFAIK some of the ME3 airlines already have rights for UK -USA, at least at UK regional airports. Certainly one has looked at it in the past but decided not to take the rights up. With the landscape now changing maybe there are some opportunities...
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Old 2nd May 2020, 21:53
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Seems that Emirates are expecting demand to rebound fairly soon. For some reason I suddenly cannot post links but the full story is on the front page of the livetradingnews-dot-com

Emirates is busy protecting and readying the world’s largest all wide-body fleet


While the world yearns to travel once again, meet and hug loved ones, seek new adventures and close those business deals, Emirates is busy protecting and readying the world’s largest all wide-body fleet to take to the skies. This could have proved daunting, but Emirates Engineering, a division of the airline and one of the world’s most technologically advanced aircraft maintenance facilities, has it all covered – literally! Ahmed Safa, Emirates’ Divisional Senior Vice President Engineering said: “Emirates moves to a different drumbeat – one where the highest standards are absolutely fundamental to our entire organisational rhythm. Everything we do ladders up to ensuring the best customer experience and people feeling safe and reassured while flying with us.
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Old 3rd May 2020, 11:35
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Originally Posted by cashash View Post
How does Emirates or Qatar take over LHR......?.


[/QUOTE]Everything we do ladders up to ensuring the best customer experience and people feeling safe and reassured while flying with us.
[QUOTE]

Hmmm.....pity that doesn't extend to paying their suppliers' bills; demands for 4 months credit, followed by excuses for further delay....I wonder how many simply give up and refuse further orders?

Bit like another well-known - notorious - large operator, this time in in Europe.
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Old 3rd May 2020, 18:51
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Originally Posted by cashash View Post
Seems that Emirates are expecting demand to rebound fairly soon. For some reason I suddenly cannot post links but the full story is on the front page of the livetradingnews-dot-com

Emirates is busy protecting and readying the world’s largest all wide-body fleet


While the world yearns to travel once again, meet and hug loved ones, seek new adventures and close those business deals, Emirates is busy protecting and readying the world’s largest all wide-body fleet to take to the skies. This could have proved daunting, but Emirates Engineering, a division of the airline and one of the world’s most technologically advanced aircraft maintenance facilities, has it all covered – literally! Ahmed Safa, Emirates’ Divisional Senior Vice President Engineering said: “Emirates moves to a different drumbeat – one where the highest standards are absolutely fundamental to our entire organisational rhythm. Everything we do ladders up to ensuring the best customer experience and people feeling safe and reassured while flying with us.
This propaganda doesn't quite stack up against some of the posts we read here about Emirates professional standards !
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