The restart of international travel....
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The restart of international travel....
This discusses restriction as opposed to a total prohibition, and preventing first wave as opposed to subsequent waves. In addition it is not pathogen specific.
A number of countries including Singapore and China are seeing second waves due to cross border travel. Taking temperature has limited value as many people, especially under 40, have no temperature when shedding. Antibody testing is very helpful but only in the over 40s. So we really have no reliable test at the border
IMHO a country cannot relax lockdown /stay in place until the number of new cases is below that country's ability to track and trace. This will vary from country to country. The ability to reopen borders will depend upon the amount of destination and transit footfall into that country and its country of origin. So this is multifactorial. IMHO reopening borders should occur late in the process of easing lockdown, and potentially wait for mass vaccination, but no two countries are the same.
A number of countries including Singapore and China are seeing second waves due to cross border travel. Taking temperature has limited value as many people, especially under 40, have no temperature when shedding. Antibody testing is very helpful but only in the over 40s. So we really have no reliable test at the border
IMHO a country cannot relax lockdown /stay in place until the number of new cases is below that country's ability to track and trace. This will vary from country to country. The ability to reopen borders will depend upon the amount of destination and transit footfall into that country and its country of origin. So this is multifactorial. IMHO reopening borders should occur late in the process of easing lockdown, and potentially wait for mass vaccination, but no two countries are the same.
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The desperation being seen by countries trying to return to normal is worrying. It all started with one individual and we've now reached over 2 million infected. What's to say it can't stay again. Between a rock and a hard place. But what I've realized is that the more extreme restrictions on movement of people has been the right call. Taking it easy has led to disaster.
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Tracking and tracing will slow the spread but cannot prevent it because it is very difficult to track and trace asymptomatic cases. The very best shot we had at that, was right back at the start of all this when we knew who had left China, yet the world failed. The only thing they can do is hope to keep the infection rate to an acceptable level via a whole host of techniques of which, social distancing will remain the most important.. Ideally they need to avoid the requirement for another full lockdown once the current ones have been lifted, but I suspect that will require more stringent social distancing than they will initially attempt (for the economy’s sake), and it will therefore get away from them at least once more.
I cannot see people being allowed to rush back to nonessential flying until a vaccine comes along. Such complacency wiould almost certainly result in further lockdowns.
I cannot see people being allowed to rush back to nonessential flying until a vaccine comes along. Such complacency wiould almost certainly result in further lockdowns.
Definitely the best place to test the "herd immunity" strategy for virus control. Coming to an airport near you...
IG
Last edited by Imagegear; 17th Apr 2020 at 09:43.
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The desperation being seen by countries trying to return to normal is worrying. It all started with one individual and we've now reached over 2 million infected. What's to say it can't stay again. Between a rock and a hard place. But what I've realized is that the more extreme restrictions on movement of people has been the right call. Taking it easy has led to disaster.
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Correct. They'll be anarchy at some point, people like their liberty. It appears there will have to be "acceptable" losses, the alternative is far scarier.
LAX especially, looking at you ...
I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
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Take-away
I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
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I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
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I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
My own country of NZ was planning on several million international tourists this year, and is now expecting virtually none. A whole swathe of tourist-dependant industry - hotels, camping grounds, camper van hire, bars, restaurants, "Hobbiton" tours, jet boat rides, bungy jump 'experiences', etc. etc. - will go bust as there does not appear to be any realistic chance of international tourism resuming until there's a vaccine.
On the other hand, our goods export industries are continuing to flourish, partly because the NZ dollar has depreciated about 10% against the US dollar.
I'm sure there are many other economies where long-haul international tourism has previously been the backbone of their prosperity.
For example, Bali without hordes of Australian and NZ tourists will be a much poorer place. Nicer maybe, but poorer
And that is assuming the boffins are able to actually develop a vaccine. AIUI, there has never been a vaccine developed to treat a corona virus, so if they develop one, it will be a world first.
Although I’m not saying/predicting that we’ll develop the solution for humans any time soon. As far as current science goes, it’s a matter of when, not if.
Vaccines need to be grown; that will unfortunately take time. After that, they’ll need to conduct extensive clinical trials before one shows up at your local health centre.
As annoying/damaging as it is, it’s a matter of patience.
More encouraging is the development of near instant testing for the virus - a couple minutes from sample to final results. Such testing - if widely available and reasonably cheap - could be a game changer.
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What giggity said. There are Covid 19 vaccines already undergoing human trials (one such trial is taking place in Seattle). Normally it would be another ~18 months before such a vaccine would be approved for general use, but there is enough urgency associated with Covid 19 to cut that - perhaps in half - but that still puts into next year.
More encouraging is the development of near instant testing for the virus - a couple minutes from sample to final results. Such testing - if widely available and reasonably cheap - could be a game changer.
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“just to be clear, even if they found a vaccine worked Tommorow, you have to have extensive human trials. Do we want another thalidomide scandal? There is zero chance of a vaccine this year, and only a remote chance of one in 2021.”
If that is true we will all have been exposed long before we get a vaccine, so the vaccine will be no use, this is a very infectious pandemic, all we can do is treat symptoms. In the U.K. it is already causing high mortality in care homes for the elderly, most younger patients do have a good resistance or some immunity. At some point the economy has to return to work, how soon international travel is possible is very uncertain because each nation will have its own restrictions.
If that is true we will all have been exposed long before we get a vaccine, so the vaccine will be no use, this is a very infectious pandemic, all we can do is treat symptoms. In the U.K. it is already causing high mortality in care homes for the elderly, most younger patients do have a good resistance or some immunity. At some point the economy has to return to work, how soon international travel is possible is very uncertain because each nation will have its own restrictions.