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MAX’s Return Delayed by FAA Reevaluation of 737 Safety Procedures

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MAX’s Return Delayed by FAA Reevaluation of 737 Safety Procedures

Old 18th Dec 2019, 03:58
  #4621 (permalink)  
 
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I predict the 737 MAX inventory will be written off. The Chinese or Europeans or Canadians will get blamed. The company is preparing a new design for market, and as soon as they have the project ready they will file for Chapter 11, and a lot of the stock will be acquired on the cheap by a rescue team and then they launch the new design sales, with government incentives as the dastardly communist Chinese and socialist Europeans and health insured Canadians and .. and ... and insert your favorite country here ... killed the MAX ... see above. And yes, Muilenburg will come out of this with ... lots of moolah, and current shareholders will get raped.


Edmund


They might be worth 30 billion dollars one moment, and be a bewildering liability the next. It's hard to imagine a middle road when the product has cost so much to build. In particular, I'm not sure who'd buy 800 almost new engines that don't quite fit.

Last edited by edmundronald; 18th Dec 2019 at 04:08.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 08:19
  #4622 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by edmundronald View Post
I predict the 737 MAX inventory will be written off. The Chinese or Europeans or Canadians will get blamed. The company is preparing a new design for market, and as soon as they have the project ready they will file for Chapter 11, and a lot of the stock will be acquired on the cheap by a rescue team and then they launch the new design sales, with government incentives as the dastardly communist Chinese and socialist Europeans and health insured Canadians and .. and ... and insert your favorite country here ... killed the MAX ... see above. And yes, Muilenburg will come out of this with ... lots of moolah, and current shareholders will get raped.


Edmund
That’s almost amusing and I wouldn’t take anything off the table but maybe somewhat tongue in cheek to suggest “writing off” 400 planes is going to happen.

I would take anything JP Morgan says with some skepticism. Their recent history of valuing company’s and markets is somewhat spotty. They were on the blunt end of a claw hammer with WeWork and it wasn’t that many years ago these same brainchild’s held those subprime traunches in high esteem. Regardless, 400 planes don’t go from a value of X to a liability of -X. Even if the program is scrapped its reclamation value puts substantial $$$ on Boeings balance sheet.

No doubt there is still a huge uphill climb for the plane and company but it carries a huge economic impact and the company is literally too big to fail. See auto bailouts and banking bailouts for the perfect example and mentality of what the US Gov will most assuredly do. They’ll get bailed out by the tax payers if it comes to that. However, if it’s a 100 mile race we’re still on mile 35. Long way to go before that comes to fruition.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 09:05
  #4623 (permalink)  
 
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Those planes will not get scrapped and BA will not file chapter 11.
However something has happened causing another delay of at least two months and I guess it is not only a carefree attitude of BA towards deadlines imposed by its regulator as spreaded after Muilenbergs walk to Canossa - dubbed " a productive meeting".
Whether it is about poor crew performance with new checklists or additional gadgets in the lucky bag - we shall learn.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 09:22
  #4624 (permalink)  
 
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Why are we not told what's brewing?
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 09:38
  #4625 (permalink)  
 
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Have we ever been?
You think it is any different this time? Not the usual s**t?
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 09:54
  #4626 (permalink)  
 
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rework?

One reason for the production stop could be that a substantial physical rework is in the cards.
A remote possibility?
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 10:03
  #4627 (permalink)  
 
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They have been increasing their debt by approx 5e9 USD per quarter (yes, it's positive cash flow). Maybe time to stop that now?
Maybe all have been built for customers that said, yes go ahead with ours, we will make downpayments alltough you dont't have an airworthyness certificate for it and don't know when you can provide it?
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 11:27
  #4628 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TeachMe View Post
Claims of the Max program death are I suggest greatly exaggerated. Those on PPRuNe need to remember that the Max problems are a lot more salient to those in the industry and on here than those outside of it, or those who fly a few times a year. If the airlines are willing to trust it, and are thus willing to commit to it, then most passengers will be fine with it after 6 months.

It is not that the public is ignorant, it is just that other things are more pressing. Many on here would be horrified if they knew what a doctor knows about the medical system or a professor knows about higher education - again not ignorance or bad, just that the more we know of an industry, the more the issues are salient.

TME
I'd have agreed with you just after Ethiopian, but a grounding of this length and scale is unprecedented and we are in the era of social media.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 12:06
  #4629 (permalink)  
 
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It's not just the 400 odd completed airframes, there are also nearly 100 fuselages sitting at Spirit Aerosystems factory in Wichita Kansas. Of course without wings they are easier to store as they take up far less space.



https://www.businessinsider.sg/photo...-12/?r=US&IR=T
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 12:21
  #4630 (permalink)  
 
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Recent MAX test flight...looks like a fun profile!




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Old 18th Dec 2019, 12:24
  #4631 (permalink)  
 
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EASA doing their test flights?
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 14:14
  #4632 (permalink)  
 
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Practicing "rollercoaster" technique?
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 15:04
  #4633 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by turbidus View Post
Practicing "rollercoaster" technique?
If they are, i hope we get to see video from the flight deck.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 15:22
  #4634 (permalink)  
 
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If they are, they lose altitude, each time they do it. (I think those are stalls, a sharp altitude loss, and a rapid speed increase, then speed and altitude return to entry conditions.)

Last edited by Takwis; 18th Dec 2019 at 15:32.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 15:58
  #4635 (permalink)  
 
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If they are, they lose altitude, each time they do it.
ummm...thats why its called a roller coaster!



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Old 18th Dec 2019, 16:20
  #4636 (permalink)  
 
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"If nose up trim is required, RAISE THE NOSE WELL ABOVE THE HORIZON with elevator control. Then slowly relax the control column pressure and manually trim nose up. Allow the nose to drop TO THE HORIZON while trimming. Repeat...."

Done per the instructions, there should not be a loss of altitude.

Last edited by Takwis; 18th Dec 2019 at 17:03.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 16:35
  #4637 (permalink)  
 
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That's from the 737 classic, right? Not taught anymore.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 16:41
  #4638 (permalink)  
 
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Older than the "Classics", which came out in 1984. This was for the 737-100 and -200, and the 707, before them. I practiced it (once) in a KC-135, more than three decades ago. Not sure when the instructions disappeared, but I don't think they were ever in the 'Classic' manuals.

We need a good nickname for the first generation 737s. For that matter, the term "next-gen", or NG is pretty outdated, at this point.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 17:16
  #4639 (permalink)  
 
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It probably won't happen, but could those airframes without wings be repurposed, perhaps as NGs? Perhaps plan "C" would be to redesign the fuel efficient engine to actually fit the airframe. A huge project that was unthinkable before, but if it turns out that the MAX really isn't going to fly again it might start to make financial sense.
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Old 18th Dec 2019, 17:29
  #4640 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
It's not just the 400 odd completed airframes, there are also nearly 100 fuselages sitting at Spirit Aerosystems factory in Wichita Kansas. Of course without wings they are easier to store as they take up far less space.



https://www.businessinsider.sg/photo...-12/?r=US&IR=T
Also curious about the leap-1b engines which only fit this plane.
it seems it was boeing told them to keep production up
So they have to pay for all that stuff now? Would have thought to just finish them without engines or use a set just for mock up
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