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Another A380 Woe?

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Another A380 Woe?

Old 16th Feb 2019, 22:01
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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So, what are BA going to replace all their ageing 744 fleet with? Wouldn't LH Gatwick with the 380 be a good business proposition? Thinking about slots as well...

In fact replace the 744's with 380's?
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Old 16th Feb 2019, 22:55
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps some folks don’t remember but both FedEx and UPS ordered A-380 cargo freighters. However it became apparent that a cargo variant of the 380 was not going to be developed in the hoped for timeframe, and both companies cancelled their orders. Apparently the cost to design a pure freighter version of the 380, coupled with the additional weight needed to reinforce both decks for freight was cost prohibitive.
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Old 16th Feb 2019, 23:50
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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It takes a lot of traffic on a route to acheive the occupancy needed to make the A380 economic.
The last time I was on a BA 744 to JNB there were a lot of empty seats.
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Old 17th Feb 2019, 06:56
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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Why cant people accept the A380 is a legacy fleet aircraft, its time has come and gone...the A350/B787/B77X are all the replacements...gone are the days of a so call "Hub Buster", it takes to long to turn around, its too big, overweight, slow and not fuel efficient...airlines that have them, will be stuck with them..unless they can trade them in for fuel efficient twins. If it was so fantastic a heap of American/European Airlines would use it as a "Bus Service", but they dont...as for passengers love it, most passengers don;t know what aircraft they are traveling on & really don't care, it the price of the ticket that attracts them!
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Old 17th Feb 2019, 09:18
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Goddamnslacker View Post
Why cant people accept the A380 is a legacy fleet aircraft, its time has come and gone...the A350/B787/B77X are all the replacements...gone are the days of a so call "Hub Buster"
We know what you mean, but isn't the term "hub buster" typically applied to those latter types, not the A380?

FlightGlobal: Qantas eyes 777 as "hub buster"

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Old 17th Feb 2019, 10:54
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Goddamnslacker View Post
...as for passengers love it, most passengers don;t know what aircraft they are traveling on & really don't care....
That's my opinion as well. You've got to bear in mind that PPRuNe contributors have an interest in aviation, so it's perhaps no surprise that people here are well informed and opinionated about aircraft types. On the whole, though, even where passengers have a choice as to who to fly with and when (many don't) I doubt the casual traveller really takes the time to research routes, schedules and airline fleets just so they can fly on an A380.
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Old 17th Feb 2019, 11:04
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
So, what are BA going to replace all their ageing 744 fleet with?
787’s and A350’s - that decision was made a while back:

IAG - International Airlines Group - News Release
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Old 17th Feb 2019, 21:05
  #228 (permalink)  
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I had said: The 74 arrived at just the right time to be the success it was.
Originally Posted by His dudeness View Post
So 1973 (oil shock) and the next following years were great for aviation?
No but it was just about the ONLY shock for the 747 and in your next statement:

There was just nothing that came close at the time and it took quite a time for the 340s/777s etc to arrive on the market.
You help to prove my point that it arrived at the right time.

The 380 is a niche product at huge costs IMHO and thats why it had a problem right from the start. And it is fugly. Nothing like the gracious lines of the 47, which still looks just right.
Yes it is and the niche was too small but, as I said, Airbus were always going to build the big one and it might have succeeded. It is fugly but a friend of mine who works for a global travel company (a name you would all know) says that pax ask which rotations on a route are the 380.

But not enough in these changing times and the ultra long timescales of building aircraft. Bear in mind that countless other companies outside the airline world, have failed to adapt to the 21st Century. Mostly, their failures are small and do not make headlines - but they have also failed and lost money and put people out of work.
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Old 17th Feb 2019, 22:07
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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The 747 had to and could grow over several engine generations to become some success as the 747-200 (mostly used for range) and big success as the 747-400 (perfectly paired with the 767 back then).
The A380 was meant to become a family of aircraft. It's like the A319 member of the A320 family. Closing the program after only one version and generation now is a bit of a change of mind. Where is the stamina Boeing had with the 747?
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Old 17th Feb 2019, 23:52
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
... You've got to bear in mind that PPRuNe contributors have an interest in aviation, so it's perhaps no surprise that people here are well informed and opinionated about aircraft types. On the whole, though, even where passengers have a choice as to who to fly with and when (many don't) I doubt the casual traveller really takes the time to research routes, schedules and airline fleets just so they can fly on an A380.
In our case, heading from east coast of Aus to Europe and back a couple of months later, I stipulated that it MUST be an A380. Same thing last time. Will be the same thing next time, as long as the A380 is an option.
Other posters are correct though, generally speaking the average passenger doesn't know or care what they are flying on, even when the price of the ticket isn't a factor.
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Old 18th Feb 2019, 01:28
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Recidivist View Post
In our case, heading from east coast of Aus to Europe and back a couple of months later, I stipulated that it MUST be an A380. Same thing last time. Will be the same thing next time, as long as the A380 is an option.
Which is another of the A380's problems - it only serves a small number of airports. If you're not flying from and to one of those few airports, flying an A380 automatically means a transfer someplace - instantly adding several hours to your travel time and increasing the likelihood of some transfer related problem such as missing a connection or misplaced baggage compared to if a non-stop is available. In my case, A380's don't serve Seattle - a couple years ago I intentionally skipped a Seattle - Inchon non-stop and flew to LAX to take an A380 so that I could try it out (and yes it was quite nice and impressively quiet). But it increased my travel time by over six hours compared to a non-stop 777. I don't know many people that would do that just to fly an A380 (and I'm unlikely to do it again, although if I do need to make a transfer anyway I'd look at getting an A380).

As others have pointed out, until the mid 1990s, if you needed the range of a 747, you needed a 747 - there literally were no other options. But that hasn't been the case since before the A380 entered service - so unless you needed 500 seats, you didn't need an A380 - you could use a smaller, more economical twin engine aircraft.
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Old 18th Feb 2019, 01:48
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut View Post
The 747 had to and could grow over several engine generations to become some success as the 747-200 (mostly used for range) and big success as the 747-400 (perfectly paired with the 767 back then).
The A380 was meant to become a family of aircraft. It's like the A319 member of the A320 family. Closing the program after only one version and generation now is a bit of a change of mind. Where is the stamina Boeing had with the 747?
Actually, size wise, the 747 didn't 'grow' meaningfully from the -100 through the -400 (the stretched upper deck on the -300/400 added some seat area (and the -400 winglets increased the wingspan a bit), but the overall aircraft dimensions didn't change much (except of course for the shorty 747SP). It wasn't until the 747-8 that the 747 was stretched with plugs both fore and aft of the wing. What did increase was the MTOW , which combined with more powerful and efficient engines provided large improvements in range and payload.

Unlike the A380, Boeing considered all the various 747 models to be profitable (although the -8 may not be - the jury is still out) so it made sense to keep reinvesting to make it better and keep it profitable. The A380 has never been profitable - and was only cash flow positive for a few years. Given it was already considered to be too big, spending billions to make it bigger was unlikely to meaningfully improve it's marketability enough to justify the investment.
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Old 18th Feb 2019, 03:58
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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The A380 debacle was well described in this book:
Airbus vs Boeing by John Newhouse, published in 2008.
It’s still an interesting read. The book describes a combination of hubris on the part of Airbus, faulty market analysis, and the mistaken assumption (as verified by td) that the B747 must somehow be a cash cow for Boeing as the 747 lacked a direct market competitor.
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Old 18th Feb 2019, 05:04
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
SNIP
On the whole, though, even where passengers have a choice as to who to fly with and when (many don't) I doubt the casual traveller really takes the time to research routes, schedules and airline fleets just so they can fly on an A380.
Only an anecdote, but some friends of mine, not in the slightest bit airminded, chose an airline I don't particularly fancy so they could fly on the A380. Despite the contempt for passengers expressed by many professionals, once you fly for more than a couple of hours at a time, even the unwashed know whether they're comfortable or not.
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Old 18th Feb 2019, 14:57
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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I would hope some enterprising writer is penning a detailed book about the A-380 development and demise. I for one would like to read it. I recently read a great book about the L-1011. It was a fascinating story.
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Old 19th Feb 2019, 12:54
  #236 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Chiefttp View Post
I would hope some enterprising writer is penning a detailed book about the A-380 development and demise. I for one would like to read it. I recently read a great book about the L-1011. It was a fascinating story.
Can I please ask what the name of the L 1011 book is.. I would love to read it?
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Old 19th Feb 2019, 13:37
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
So, what are BA going to replace all their ageing 744 fleet with? Wouldn't LH Gatwick with the 380 be a good business proposition? Thinking about slots as well...

In fact replace the 744's with 380's?
The 777X-9 has 415 seats so about the same as a 744, if there is a 777X-10 that would have 450 seats. Still not in the A380 range but not far off.
The advantage of the 777X is that as a twin it is cheaper to operate even disregarding the claimed fuel efficiency of the new engines. It will also carry a considerable amount of freight making it far more attractive as a business proposition than the A380
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Old 20th Feb 2019, 02:38
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SOPS View Post


Can I please ask what the name of the L 1011 book is.. I would love to read it?
SOPS ,
the book was called
“The End of an Era”
”My story of the L10-11”
by James West
I purchased a kindle version on Amazon.
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Old 7th Mar 2019, 21:11
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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It looks like there may be more issues ahead for the A380 program and Airbus. Some countries are now squawking about the un-repaid loans associated with the A380 development.
https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a380-loan-dispute/
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Old 8th Mar 2019, 13:14
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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Puzzled as to how (in this case) Germany - as a risk share partner - had recovered any of the loan if the entire production has run at an apparent loss, presumably servicing the loans forms part of the model. It would be interesting to see what the real P&L on the program looks like without white noise of wider accountancy, i.e. what has it really cost and what has it really lost (or made).

No further news from Dr Peters or Tarbes, have they started to break and realise value from the obsolete airframes? Perhaps with relatively small supply (as at today) the second hand parts market will be as interesting to watch as the second hand airframe market.
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