Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Flight Deck Forums > Rumours & News
Reload this Page >

Boeing reports that Asia will need 240,000 pilots in next 20 years

Rumours & News Reporting Points that may affect our jobs or lives as professional pilots. Also, items that may be of interest to professional pilots.

Boeing reports that Asia will need 240,000 pilots in next 20 years

Old 5th Sep 2018, 16:12
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
Posts: 887
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by 16024
Autonomous jet airliners won't ever happen.
Repeat this over and over.
Cut it out and stick it on your wall. In a frame.
For the oldies among us it doesn't matter anyway. For anyone young enough to be thinking about a career break in China, for example, you will get to see the end of jet airliners.
And you can look at those words, in the frame and say "He was right."
if we're talking about the masters of automation (i.e. Airbus) lets look at the reality. In the near enough thirty years since the first A340 was rolled off the production line, aside from the obvious efficiencies driven by new technologies, what major automation advances do we have in the flight deck of the A350? Brake to Vacate and Automatic TCAS. And we're getting to pilotless aircraft within the same timeframe based on that rate of "progress"? Give me a break.
RexBanner is offline  
Old 5th Sep 2018, 20:04
  #42 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: UK
Posts: 109
Received 3 Likes on 1 Post
Devil

Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Cargo ships ply the oceans and when leaving and arriving in port they are taken over by local marine pilots who guide the ship in as they have local knowledge.
This means of transport is predictable and moves in two dimensions. It would be ripe for automation but that is not happening.
Uhh ... I'll just leave this here ..

https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/24/1...ip-launch-2018
paperHanger is offline  
Old 6th Sep 2018, 01:52
  #43 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 3,878
Likes: 0
Received 245 Likes on 106 Posts
Yes I am aware of that. Not in service yet which makes my point. They are still decades away from autonomous ships. Aircraft with passengers, possibly never.

One other thought, crew costs are about 13-15% of aircraft operating costs. Surely cabin crew would go first? The argument being there are no staff on a train or bus to show you where the exits are so why do you need them on an aeroplane? Replace them with a vending machine?

These are not my thoughts by the way. Just floating the business argument.
Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 6th Sep 2018, 13:31
  #44 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,958
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Come on, autonomous trains are not even generally accepted (no, the Gatwick shuttle doesn't count)... All the operator has to do is stop or go, any issues just stop and wait for a technician. And remotely-piloted military types suffer, by far, the highest accident rate of any aircraft on the inventory.

We keep hearing how short of pilots we're supposed to be, so why are conditions so dire for new starters to the industry?
ShotOne is offline  
Old 6th Sep 2018, 20:49
  #45 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 68
Posts: 4,406
Received 180 Likes on 88 Posts
Come on, autonomous trains are not even generally accepted (no, the Gatwick shuttle doesn't count)...
You'd be surprised - and no they are not limited to airport shuttles. One of the big bottlenecks for autonomous trains is the train drivers unions have fought (successfully) to keep their jobs, even when they aren't actually in control of the train. If they can't get rid of the engineer, there isn't much incentive to spend the money for autonomous control.
BTW, late last year, there was a passenger trail derailment between Seattle and Portland when the engineer took a 35 mph curve at nearly 80 mph. Several people died. They were planning to install an automatic train speed control (that would have automatically slowed the train and prevented the derailment) - but hadn't gotten around to it yet. The public outcry was such that they had to promise to implement the automatic speed control before restarting the route...

Last edited by tdracer; 6th Sep 2018 at 21:01. Reason: fixed typo
tdracer is offline  
Old 6th Sep 2018, 20:56
  #46 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: USA
Posts: 10
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I agree that aircraft automation hasn't significantly changed, in fact airlines in the US at least are emphasizing hand flying skills much more now than they were 20 years ago. But history does not look favorably upon those who hide from progress. One day airplanes will fly themselves and surgeries will be performed by robots and schools will be taught by programs. Will that day happen in 20, 30, or 40 years? Who knows? If I only get to spend 20 years as a pilot it will still have been worth it.
theNotoriousPIC is offline  
Old 7th Sep 2018, 00:31
  #47 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Harbour Master Place
Posts: 662
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Silicon Valley Takes a (Careful) Step Toward Autonomous Flying


Final paragraphs:
Still, the biggest hurdle may be convincing regulators and the public that autonomous flight is safe.

“There are a lot of start-ups doing this,” Igor Cherepinsky, director of autonomy programs at Sikorsky, said. “Quite a few of them are na´ve about what it will take.”
See my other post today on why any computer based device is vulnerable to hacking: Reflections on Trusting Trust

Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 7th Sep 2018 at 00:48.
CurtainTwitcher is offline  
Old 7th Sep 2018, 03:22
  #48 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
Posts: 3,878
Likes: 0
Received 245 Likes on 106 Posts
I say it again, when MOST of the worlds trains and MANY of the worlds ships are autonomous, then, and only then will the general public be willing to accept an aircraft with no humans up the front. Single pilot may well come first as a stepping stone, maybe.


Icarus2001 is offline  
Old 7th Sep 2018, 13:21
  #49 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: New Braunfels, TX
Age: 70
Posts: 1,954
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by tdracer
BTW, late last year, there was a passenger trail derailment between Seattle and Portland when the engineer took a 35 mph curve at nearly 80 mph. Several people died. They were planning to install an automatic train speed control (that would have automatically slowed the train and prevented the derailment) - but hadn't gotten around to it yet. The public outcry was such that they had to promise to implement the automatic speed control before restarting the route...
There is a vast vast difference between an automatic speed limiter over a short section of track and a fully autonomous train. In the case of a train, literally only one variable would be autonomously controlled, speed, and no one yet trusts a computer to do that completely autonomously, even just for freight. It will take much much more before anyone trusts a computer to autonomously control a passenger aircraft where literally dozens of variables would need to be controlled simultaneously. And not just controlled, but coordinated.
KenV is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.