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Airbus warns about no-deal Brexit

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Airbus warns about no-deal Brexit

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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 13:13
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone actually think that from next April the EU are going to shut down production of Aircraft in Europe? - personally I cant see it happening.
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 13:30
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[QUOTE=45989;10179972]
Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
What will RR do after Brexit? Move engine fabrication to the continent?
Perhaps they need to make power plants that work properly first? RB211..... Trent.......
FABRICATION.... Strange word for producing one of the worlds most technically complex pieces of technology.
Anyway, Rolls Royce already produces two spool engines in Germany.
It is really easy to belittle their hugely successful RB211 and Trent engines. Yes they have problems with certain Trent1000 engines but they are working flat out to correct the problems as any highly successful organisation should.
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 15:59
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the jewel in the crown has to be the wing design team, and whether they can coax the team into leaving too.
Indeed, about 40+ years ago, the BAC wing designers were being courted both by Boeing and the embryonic Airbus. They (rather, their employer) chose Airbus, of course. But if their jobs were seriously threatened by Airbus, I guess Boeing would come sniffing around again and many of these guys would soon be enjoying life in Seattle.

Or a nightmare scenario for Airbus would be for the talent to be scooped up by China.
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 16:19
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Originally Posted by Burnt Fishtrousers
Alber Ratman

"I would go back to Jet Blast mate, your knowledge and aviation background reading your previous, belongs there and not here."

You do not need to push throttles on a daily basis to smell a political rat. 3 months ago Airbus were extolling the virtues of the UK workforce as the best and most productive now all of a sudden they are considering moving with a totally unconvincing business model. A business is a business and if observers see uncertainty in your business they aren't going to invest in it or purchase from you.
To put in jeopardy a viable going concern based on political dogma with so called barriers that can be done away easily with at the swipe of a pen in March 2019 appears somewhat odd to say the least.

I have set up many dealerships in India selling our software so know exactly how Indian business works. Too much red tape and veeery slowly in my experience

As for aviation, Boeing having no replacement on the cards to match the A380 says it all...the future of these large jets is in question with point to point flying the future as demonstrated by the 787 Heathrow to Perth non stop run recently.....makes common business sense...I'll see you over in Jet Blast mate so we can parry a few more over in the sandpit of us unworthy unwashed non aviation oiks
A350 will fill the hole. If Airbus wish to pull out, they will in time. I don't do Jet Blast as I am a Licenced Aircraft Engineer. Why the hell do people think that a trade deal with India is going to be any different to what you said.
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 16:27
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But if their jobs were seriously threatened by Airbus, I guess Boeing would come sniffing around again and many of these guys would soon be enjoying life in Seattle.
China is building and supplying A320 wings for the Tianjin final assembly already. They are on the record with an offer to build more.
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 16:40
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China is building and supplying A320 wings for the Tianjin final assembly already. They are on the record with an offer to build more.
So they can rivet to western standards - good for them, but that's not even slightly the same as having control of the design team, is it?
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 16:50
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FABRICATION.... Strange word for producing one of the worlds most technically complex pieces of technology.
Maybe strange to you. Boeing even has a VP and GM for fabrication.
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 17:35
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
Maybe strange to you. Boeing even has a VP and GM for fabrication.
Maybe so, but GM do not produce Gas Turbine Engines which was what the post was about and what the Fabrication comment related to.
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Old 23rd Jun 2018, 17:41
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By using that word I wanted to differentiate between actual production and designing them. If you have tariffs or similar between the UK and EU moving hardware might be the issue. Maybe not so much the think tank work.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 09:12
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Originally Posted by ZeBedie
So they can rivet to western standards - good for them, but that's not even slightly the same as having control of the design team, is it?
Does the UK?

The design authority is airbus, with UK workers designing to Airbus specification and intellectual property? We've never been very good at designing airliners, much better at systems. Snggered at facecious, uninformed politicians yesterday making comments like "why can't people imagine the UK building aircraft again?"

Naievety beyond comprehension.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 10:01
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Originally Posted by VinRouge
Does the UK?

The design authority is airbus, with UK workers designing to Airbus specification and intellectual property? We've never been very good at designing airliners, much better at systems. Snggered at facecious, uninformed politicians yesterday making comments like "why can't people imagine the UK building aircraft again?"

Naievety beyond comprehension.
I think we could imagine the UK doing it, but it requires competent management/government rather than one that cannot organise the proverbial p-up in a brewery. The UK is actually very good at making things and the car industry is a good example. But it needs Indian or Japanese management to make a success of it.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 10:28
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
By using that word I wanted to differentiate between actual production and designing them. If you have tariffs or similar between the UK and EU moving hardware might be the issue. Maybe not so much the think tank work.
The point a lot of manufacturers are jumping up and down about is Non-tariff barriers. So having to fill in paperwork every time you cross the border, being unable to easily move people from place to place on either short or long term postings, regulatory divergence, rules of origin etc etc. Relatively small amounts of friction make big differences. And before people say "airbus say they could move manufacture to china or Alabama and they are outside the EU so this isn't about Brexit" think about it being a set of scales, all these locations are constantly in competition for future investment or rationalisation. Being inside the EU is a huge advantage to the UK when it comes to supply chain. While inside the EU the UK Airbus operation has been able to beat off competition from other sites. If we take that away then the calculation is no longer between a UK inside the EU and a China or Alabama outside the EU (or another inside EU location) . For the long term it's about relative advantage and we are giving that away.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 10:32
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Thank god for a bit of common sense at last.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 12:03
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Having said all of this I've been thinking of how this "warning" plays out if interpreted differently. It could be seen as an appeal to the EU to give the UK something , to make concessions and avoid a no-deal exit. It appeals to the short-termism prevalent in politicians on both sides of the channel but (and the but is really important) a shrewd continental politician looking at the 5-10 year economy will probably see that they can make these concessions with little risk.

It runs like this: Dear EU please make concessions to the UK to avoid a no deal Brexit because if you don't then it will cost us billions and billions of euros and result in temporary shut downs of production in a bunch of sectors putting continental voters out of work. Of course in the long run, the friction implicit in Brexit will make the UK uncompetitive anyway so if we can get a fudge for a couple of years then you (the EU 27) will see an advantage and (in the Airbus case) the wing work will gently drift onto the continent in an orderly way.

PS My money is on the wing work ending up in Spain.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 16:16
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut
What will RR do after Brexit? Move engine fabrication to the continent? Their german Dahlewitz plant seems to be growing already.
They need the busses too to hang on all their donks.

Airlines sell tickets and have to plan capacity today for the time after Brexit but nobody knows any rules that will apply. What a mess for what reason?
Announcing that 4000 of their uk based middle management will be laid off a week back could be an indicator of their intent.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 17:46
  #116 (permalink)  

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What will RR do after Brexit? Move engine fabrication to the continent? Their german Dahlewitz plant seems to be growing already.
They already have a state of the art manufacturing plant in Singapore. They make the blades there, have access on site to the laser peening facility as well.
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Old 24th Jun 2018, 19:34
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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I bet Boeing are just loving this "If it ain't Boeing, I'm not going" could become almost literally true next March. I hope Airbus are briefing their customers that deliveries and parts-supply may be a bit of an issue in 2019
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Old 25th Jun 2018, 08:02
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Alan Baker
Good luck to Airbus in setting up and bringing on stream a new, duplicate, wing building facility elsewhere between now and next March..
The immediate issue is where new investment goes. Scenario at moment seems to be it going outside UK with existing facilities left to, over time, wither on the vine.

Meanwhile it's facile to say the EU should be easing the negotiating process. UK set this process in chain by holding a referendum and then giving notice under Article 50 before the unexpected and unplanned for outcome had been digested. Right now, two whole years after the referendum, the Cabinet cannot even agree amongst themselves what negotiating position to adopt. How can the EU react to that?
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Old 25th Jun 2018, 08:56
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Already slowing down........

From the IMF - GDP Increase over previous 12 months:-

2015 2018
USA 2.7% - 2.8%
Canada 1% - 2.3%
France 1.1% - 2%
Italy 1% - 1.4 %
UK 2.35 - 1.4%
Japan 1.3% - 1.4 %
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Old 25th Jun 2018, 22:23
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More firms warn U.K. over disorderly Brexit.

“Business leaders from the US, Canada, Japan and India have told the British government to solve the Brexit issue urgently or put more than £100bn worth of trade at risk.

Lobby groups representing business interests from the four countries took the unusual step of issuing a joint statement on Brexit before the European council summitthis week. It came days after Airbus said its investment in the UK would be at risk from a hard Brexit, prompting the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, to say the Franco-German aircraft maker’s intervention was “completely inappropriate”.”

The US chamber of commerce represents firms such as Coca-Cola, BOEING and Facebook.

Bombardier also represented.

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