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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

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TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

Old 25th Dec 2016, 10:01
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Im wondering why they stopped in Sochi? While i dont know the 154 well, wouldnt it have the range to fly to Syria from Moscow ? maybe someone could enlighten me
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 10:01
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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We can't really say this or anything else with the facts we have now. Therefore it would be helpful to know what this ATC tape really says after the take off.

Im wondering why they stopped in Sochi?
Fuel stop is what the consensus seems to be. Planned stop.

Last edited by AN2 Driver; 25th Dec 2016 at 10:37.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 10:13
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Disaster. They are all muscovites and could have flown by ordinary passenger airline to Damascus. Instead of by the centuries old defense ministry jet. It is called Russia army but which army. 9 journalists, 68 Alexandrov army music band, 1 doctor Lisa, Elizabeth Glinka, a very famous good woman. Head of internet based organisation, un-paid, who shout a call to look for lost people. It is called "Lisa Alert" in Russia. That you can shout my relative, a child, a pensioner, an ill person didn't return home, and then there's an internet shout given and locals , from the area,leave beds and go , look! Walk through trains, walk the city, walk, in lines, forest. They found hundreds of people this way - that police couldn't. Mother Theresa and Florince Nightingale combined, that is "Doctor Lisa". Absolutely harmless music band - all of it! must be. And a good heart doctor and woman.


In Syria half the people are lost, must be. That's why she flew, to start a movement there.
and - Christmas carols singing for Christian Syrians and for Russians there. aha.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 10:48
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Alice, in all fairness, this airplane was built in 1984 and had comparatively few flight hours if the numbers are correct. Neither is it centuries old nor are the TU's known for mechanical weaknesses.

Yes it is a disaster, a huge loss for the Russian people and indeed for the world.

But we have to be careful to jump to conclusions. A TU154, even a B2, doesn't fall out of the sky like this without a good reason.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 10:51
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Which again makes us wonder if it was not a bomb onboard
Always a valid concern, but probably not that likely in this case. Would be quite the embarrassment for airport security with a flight like this.

Only 2 minutes after T/O, if stuff hit the fan it's likely there would be no time or spare capacity for a low priority radio contact.

Such a pointless tragedy though. Given Russia's defense budget why are they still flying this stuff in a less than ideal condition.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 10:59
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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I was once at a concert of the Alexandrov Choir. Possibly the best concert I have ever been to, and trust me, my regular music is Rock made by men with long hair.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85y0A7unMw0
What a loss!
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 10:59
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Which again makes us wonder if it was not a bomb onboard
You really dare to write this? The chairman of the Russian Federation Council defense and security committee has ruled it out almost immediately:
"The theory of terrorism is out of the question. It was a Defense Ministry aircraft, flying in Russian airspace. That theory is out of the question,"
So even if the bomb hypothesis were true, that would not be disclosed, I guess.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 11:03
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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AN2 Driver, you're right, I haven't considered it's in defense ministry ownership, the airplane, means - wasn't over-used, no regular flights, most likely - was idle most of the time. Even - more mysterious. These days, when Russian Ambassadors got shot out as turkey-s ! I mean - our ambassador in Istanbul, in art gallery opening - can be any thing! But then - as I understand - no one would "plot" mean things for the jet in Sochi - as the fuelling stop over there was un-planned? They changed fuelling location when already in air, because of weather conditions in Mozdok? Who'd "expect" them, in Sochi?
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 11:13
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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You really dare to write this?
Gosh! Must I prepare my GULAG outfit already?
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 11:23
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Alice,

>>They changed fuelling location when already in air, because of weather conditions in Mozdok? Who'd "expect" them, in Sochi?

Oh, interesting. One tidbit of information that if it is correct is interesting to know.

With this kind of thing, speculation will arise almost immediately, that is natural and also well known. On the other hand, we have to realize that expeccially in this day and age, a proper investigation does take time. The first few hours after an accident are always full of misinformation, speculation and other wild guesses, it usually takes a few days before we even start to get an idea what went wrong.

"Don't know" in this situation doesn't sell any papers but it is exactly where we stand at this time. We, and for all proper purposes, and the investigators who start their job now, simply don't know anything else that this airplane crashed for reasons yet to be determined.

Also the original denial of suspicious activity could well be an act of human denial, "it can't happen to us" kind of thing. Understandable and human, I would not put too much importance into that either. We all once thought stuff like this is not possible and had to learn otherwise.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 11:24
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like they have taken fuel in Adler to avoid refueling in Damaskus.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 11:28
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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They changed fuelling location when already in air, because of weather conditions in Mozdok? Who'd "expect" them, in Sochi?
Source? Can you give explanation where this info is came from?
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 11:33
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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It looks like the airplane disappeared right after takeoff at about 600ft, it never made a contact with approach. They found tiny pieces and bodies scattered 5km over the sea.
Seems they were flying to Syria to celebrate victory over the rebels since they had military orchestra and members of propaganda media on board.

I do believe it could be an explosion, maybe they oveloaded the airplane with firecrakers?

From early morning russian web is swarming with propoganda trolls desperately trying to prove it was not an explosion. Usually it means the opposite
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 11:46
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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NSFW

Video from rescue ship

https://embed.life.ru/video/56a377e5...UwMDB9fQ%3D%3D
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 12:09
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Alice and Kulverstukas,

you appear to be in Russia, do you speak Russian, if so, could any of you have a look at the ATC sound file posted earlier and maybe do a transcript? The time of interest is not so much before the departure clearance but from then on. What was said, particularly what was this big conversation about 3-4 minutes after the take off.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 12:19
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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ntv.ru says the navigator of the "dancing tupolev" 85563, colonel Aleksandr Petukhov, was a crewmember on the crashed 85572 Среди жертв катастрофы Ту-154 оказался член экипажа «танцующей „тушки“» // НТВ.Ru
BTW, the 85563 was used on flights to Syria ?????? ??-154 ? ????? . RA-85563 (????????) - ??????? ?????????
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 12:35
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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What a terrible thing.

The TU-154 - especially a low-cycle mil pony - should be a pretty solid jet. I hope they get to the bottom of it quickly.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 13:05
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Destination was Khmeimim Airbase, not Damascus. They were supposed to make a concert for Russian Air Force and troops based there.
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Old 25th Dec 2016, 13:12
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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mikeepbc
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ntv.ru says the navigator of the "dancing tupolev" 85563, colonel Aleksandr Petukhov, was a crewmember on the crashed 85572 Среди жертв катастрофы Ту-154 оказался член экипажа «танцующей „тушки“» // НТВ.Ru
BTW, the 85563 was used on flights to Syria ?????? ??-154 ? ????? . RA-85563 (????????) - ??????? ?????????

-50%

At the end of April 2011 at the Chkalovsky airfield near Moscow a Tu-154 belonging to the Ministry of Defence almost crashed. The crew under the command of Yuri Rodionov was supposed to deliver the aircraft to the repair plant in Samara, but the aircraft was almost uncontrollable. It was decided to land the plane, but the situation was complicated by strong winds.

The plane swerved in the air in different directions, it looked like it might collapse. However they still managed to land it. No one was hurt. Eyewitnesses filmed the incident on video. The Navigator in the crew was Colonel Alexander Petukhov. His name appears in the list of those who were on board the Tu-154 that crashed in Sochi.

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Old 25th Dec 2016, 13:13
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JamesT73J View Post
What a terrible thing.
The TU-154 - especially a low-cycle mil pony - should be a pretty solid jet. I hope they get to the bottom of it quickly.

At night over water at rather low altitude it doesn't take much more than one instrument giving wrong indications to get an otherwise perfectly flyable Airliner quickly into the Ground/Water. I wouldn't expect major/structural cause. Chances are Pilot error (conditions potentially conducive to spatial disorientation), Fuel contamination or something electrical/Flight instruments. Will be interesting to see if we will ever get to know the real cause.
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