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Jet goes down on its way to Medellin, Colombia

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Jet goes down on its way to Medellin, Colombia

Old 8th Dec 2016, 05:57
  #801 (permalink)  
 
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The Importance of the MAYDAY

Quote from the individual controller at La Guardia working - "Sully" Hudson Splash 1549 in 2011.

"When a pilot says Mayday or declares an emergency, you go from a focused state to a hyper-focused state. You focus in on the emergency and figure out the solution to the problem".

How sad there was no MAYDAY at Medellin, (better) early or (worse) late.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 06:59
  #802 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 212man View Post
No, but your comment is the first definitive statement about what services the crew would still have that I've seen here. Given that the aircraft uses engines 1 & 4 for primary generators, and a (engine driven) hydraulic system for the standby generator, and has an APU, I didn't expect to see much on the battery. There's not much in the public domain to confirm what's left.....
No worries. Here's the relevant page from the emergency checklist regarding the "Emergency Power Level" and some glide info.

I think all going well they could have at least crashed on the runway. Of course, all going well they would've stopped for fuel along the way.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 07:44
  #803 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AerocatS2A View Post
No worries. Here's the relevant page from the emergency checklist regarding the "Emergency Power Level" and some glide info.

I think all going well they could have at least crashed on the runway. Of course, all going well they would've stopped for fuel along the way.
Awesome. Thank you!
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 08:02
  #804 (permalink)  
 
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I told a lie, the DME would be unpowered so that complicates things a little.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 08:10
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Originally Posted by AerocatS2A View Post
I told a lie, the DME would be unpowered so that complicates things a little.
Yes and no.

They still got the LOC and GS

Gear down at 1nm and 1000ft. LMI2933 lowered gear between FL170 and FL120
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 08:17
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I find this additional info recently added on avherald.com very interesting. It shows that even without payload they would have been approximately 1450 kg short of a legal blocks fuel to perform the flight. I think it's pretty sure that they departed very much above Max TOW. Even with optimistic weights being used, there would have been less fuel in the tanks then the required trip fuel!
Originally Posted by avherald.com
Fuel Computations

A dispatcher at a large airline together with input from The Aviation Herald computed various flight plan possibilities with respect to distances and fuel needed according to Bolivia's law. During the accident flight the enroute winds averaged at a headwind component of 4 knots.

In summary it can be said, that flights from Santa Cruz (VVI) to Medellin (MDE) or Bogota (BOG) could not have been planned legally, even if the aircraft was equipped with pannier tanks. Even in optimistic computations the computed trip fuel alone, without any taxi, contingency, diversion or reserve fuel, would have exceeded the standard fuel tank capacity (9362kg).

The dispatcher computed three different flight plans, see in detail at the PDF:

Santa Cruz-Medellin Alternate Bogota with no payload: Trip Fuel 8,660kg, Release Fuel 11,838kg
Santa Cruz-Medellin Alternate Bogota optimistic weights: Trip Fuel 9,380kg, Release Fuel 12,461kg
Santa Cruz-Bogota Alternate Medellin optimistic weights: Trip Fuel 9,260kg, Release Fuel 12,578kg

Fuel Stop Possibilities

Along the route following possibilities were checked with respect of a possible fuel stop (rounded Great Circle distances used for first leg to fuel stop and second leg to Medellin):

- Cobija (Bolivia, SLCO, 500nm+1100nm): operating from sunrise to sunset only, not open anymore at estimated time of arrival
- Tabatinga (Brazil, SBTT, 900nm+700nm): Brazil did not permit flights from Brazil to Colombia for the Bolivia registered operator, in addition the aerodrome and fuel facilities would have been closed after 23:00Z
- Leticia (Colombia, SKLT, 900nm+700nm): The airport would be open 24/7, fuel services however officially only available until 00:30Z, too tight for estimated arrival
- Bogota (Colombia, SKBO, 1500nm+100nm): as seen above not legally possible

Summary: provided an arrangement with the fuel services in Leticia could have been reached, so that refuelling would have been possible after usual service hours, Leticia would have been an ideal fuel stop.

Last edited by sabenaboy; 8th Dec 2016 at 08:59.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 10:27
  #807 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chuks View Post
Nothing quite like waiting to see what happens next, is there? Perhaps we shall get an honest report out of all this mess. Who knows for certain?

Let's wait and see, shall we?
Totally agree in principle BUT I guess that in a place like Bolivia, without the extra pressure on the authorities from the media, there might have been less motivation to do a thorough investigation?
When I say "media", I'm referring to the South American press being able to use data from sites such as Flight24, avHerald and yes, even discussion forums such as this, in order to jump on the story and press some difficult questions from the outset.
And whilst the Anglo-speaking media has been abysmal on the basic facts & details, that extra international attention has surely been beneficial in providing extra momentum. ( That's what they are saying in the S. Am. press at any rate and let's face it Bolivia doesn't want to be downgraded again by FAA.)

For example, within 24 hrs those journalists had the info. on the aircraft endurance and within a few days were attempting to analyse it's previous flight history.

Estadão Data has analyzed all the flights of Avro RJ85 since January 31 of this year, date from which there are registrations in the site Flightradar24.com. In those 303 days, the plane left the ground on 201 occasions. In 83% of the cases where the time of the route was recorded by Flightradar24.com (151 times), the trips lasted less than two hours and a half.
Avião que caiu na Colômbia fez outras quatro viagens no limite do combustível | Futebol | Gazeta do Povo

In the interviews with the surviving owners/shareholders, it was noticeable that in the immediate aftermath, (on the 29th, they hadn't yet appreciated that the cat was out of the bag across various "rumour mills". *
This meant both the surviving owners, employees, even the son of the pilot, were all making initial statements wtte : the aircraft had the endurance to fly that distance direct. (After closing ranks, it moved to - it's all just pilot Quiroga's fault. See final link at end which claims Quiroga actually had no managerial input in the company.)

* A few examples from LaMia employees :

29.11 M. Pacheco (company spokesman) was claiming the aircraft had a "4-5 hour flight range" ! and adds that “ there were devices( dispositivi) to increase the endurance, according to the flight plan” and "The representative, however, pointed out that, depending on the level of the flight, capacity could vary. It depends a lot on the flight levels that the aircraft uses."
Mario Pacheco, portavoz de aerolínea en donde viajaba Chapecoense: nuestros aviones tienen entre 10 y 15 años de fabricación - LA F.m.
Voo poderia parar e reabastecer mas plano B complicou, diz diretor da Lamia - Tribuna Hoje - O portal de notícias que mais cresce em Alagoas Tribuna Hoje - O portal de notícias que mais cresce em Alagoas
30.11.owner Vargas "We have never experienced any incident before and had already made a direct flight from Santa Cruz to Medellin before,"
Lamia, la pequeña aerolínea operada en Bolivia que protagonizó el trágico accidente del club de fútbol Chapecoense cerca de Medellín - BBC Mundo

Only FA X.Suarez was upfront, after rescue - she says she had crewed the same aircraft when she worked for SAM and knew what RJ stood for and that with Lamia "the operation of the aircraft was stretched to its limit in an improper manner."

Anyway, after seeing the brief footage of the investigation team's meeting yesterday, am slightly more optimistic that this won't be a totally limited investigation. ( Att.Generals of all three nations met yesterday and their "white-board" with their flow-chart of initial questions was displayed.) At the link below, the points they say they are investigating include
- (under the sub-heading of manslaughter)Ministry of Public Works as well as Aasana, DGAC, M.Quiroga & LaMia.
- "administrative corruption"
- "relationship with ConMebol"

Jornal Nacional - Promotores de Bolívia, Colômbia e Brasil investigam acidente da LaMia

However, I very much doubt the investigation will go as far as this next Bolivian journalist. Corruscating and depressing. ( He's also currently in exile, in Brazil, due to reporting on Bolivian "irregularities.")
Sol de Pando. Quintana, el padrino de LaMia - eju.tv

Last edited by jess15; 8th Dec 2016 at 11:44. Reason: typos
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 10:42
  #808 (permalink)  
 
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Update 4 - tail and seating

Adding to my Update number 3 at #729. Jet goes down on its way to Medellin, Colombia - Page 37 - PPRuNe Forums

I found a second video showing the high ridge more clearly and from a better angle. It shows the horizontal and vertical tail still connected with relatively little deformation, sitting on the top edge of the high ridge. The tailspeedbrake is lying just a few meters away from the tail. This trends to confirm the impact and breakup guesstimate scenario.

In my update 3 - I stated that, based on the indicated seating arrangement, the three players were very lucky. I found an article which stated that at least one of the surviving players had changed seats during the flight with one of the medical staff. Which means the player moved to a seat more aft.

Still no sign of the front of the plane, neither cockpit nor front cabin fuselage, except for the captains main instrument panel plus the captains jacket. But the location where these were found is not clear. It is possible that the nose, cockpit and front are located under the large crown of the big tree that was pushed over. If so, then that would corroborate the guesstimated impact and breakup scenario. If true, then my impression is that the speed at impact was less than what is indicated in most newspaper articles.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 11:20
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Originally Posted by MartinM View Post
Yes and no.

They still got the LOC and GS

Gear down at 1nm and 1000ft. LMI2933 lowered gear between FL170 and FL120
Apart from all the others that this incompetent individual did that was the final straw. I heard it on the CVR that he had called for gear down but was unsure of when exactly. An experienced First officer might have "forgotten" to hear that.That was his last chance gone. Better a wheels up on the runway than what happened.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 11:53
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Not sure about the CVR. The communications we are hearing, which leaked, i believe that it is the voice recorder from the ATC and not from the Flight deck. There were 3 persons in cockpit and you don't hear any voices loud and clear from others.

For me, so far, nothing leaked from the plane FDR or CVR. This is all TWR recordings. A pity that liveatc has an outage in SKGR since october.

Asides from this, you are correct. You will notice that on his flight profile, his speed dropped from roughly 200 knots down to 140 knots with a steady sink rate. Continuing the plot, you will realize that he ended exactly where he ended if you don't change something.

But there is a factor.
At the time when the lowered gear, they had the last drop of fuel. A few seconds after this, they don't. There was no more way to raise the gear. As per my knowledge, there is no manual handle to raise a gear.

Unfortunately, not even if we ever get to hear the CVR, we will know why he decided to lower the gear. He was still in decent, around 12nm away from the airport. He confirmed being on localizer but he was not on GS yet. Additionaly I still don't get it why they would need any vectors if previously they confirmed to ATC that they are already descending and on localizer.

And that the pice of ... already left FL210 before the ATC instructed to descend is another bad thing. he took the risk of a collision with the LAN3020 which was flying below him on FL180.

Bad airman ship!
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 12:20
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Originally Posted by MartinM View Post
For me, so far, nothing leaked from the plane FDR or CVR.
Given that the FDR and CVR are being analysed by the UK AAIB, I would be astounded if the contents of either were leaked prior to publication of the investigation report by the Colombians.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 13:14
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Originally Posted by Tfor2 View Post
The real question here is that the pilot had altitude, speed, wind, pressure, distance to r/w and no power, and lacked the necessary skills to fly the aircraft until a safe landing. Coulda and shoulda made it. Sorry if this sounds harsh.
The real issue is they ran out of fuel because they made a choice to ignore almost every rule involved in flight planning not to mention common sense.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 13:16
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I found a second video showing the high ridge more clearly and from a better angle.
Got a link?
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 14:35
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This would require 7th freedom rights. Is this likely, considering 6th freedom was not granted?
(I know nothing about the Chicago Convention )
The flight time on that ocasion was actually 4 hours 18 min, my mistake.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 15:46
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Martin M, did you check Liveatc's "Interesting Recordings" ?

Last edited by portmanteau; 8th Dec 2016 at 16:04. Reason: additional remark: Its SKRG btw...
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 15:59
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Originally Posted by jess15 View Post
However, I very much doubt the investigation will go as far as this next Bolivian journalist. Corruscating and depressing. ( He's also currently in exile, in Brazil, due to reporting on Bolivian "irregularities.")
Sol de Pando. Quintana, el padrino de LaMia - eju.tv
Incredibly in-depth journalism by Wilson Franz García. A bit of a difficult read with Google translate, but well worth the effort .

Last edited by Hippy; 8th Dec 2016 at 16:39.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 16:46
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Murky stuff indeed.

One thing I don't understand is the reference - in this and other articles - to Quiroga not having had any managerial responsibility at Lamia, when his LinkedIn profile (still viewable) lists him as Chief Pilot since September 2014.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 17:36
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My guess, only a guess, goes something like this:
His previous company ecojet was prevented from getting off the ground by the "government"
He had family and friendship connections with LaMia.
He was reportedly short of money.
They gave him a job flying for LaMia, though he was reportedly uncomfortable with the Venezuelan/chavista origins of the company.
So, give him the job of chief pilot in name only and don't involve him in any company decisions or dodgy dealings.
It's ironic that the same source as that article, eju.tv, reports that he hadn't been paid for 8 months.
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 18:31
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Originally Posted by AerocatS2A View Post
No worries. Here's the relevant page from the emergency checklist regarding the "Emergency Power Level" and some glide info.

I think all going well they could have at least crashed on the runway. Of course, all going well they would've stopped for fuel along the way.

AerocatS2A - thanks for sharing the procedures - I took the liberty to add them to my post, hope OK, I mentioned the source. Can you advise what speed would be appropriate assuming something like 7,500 kg payload and zero fuel? Did the slow down to what appears to be about 125 KCAS seem about right for landing configuration? If you have the time, please let me know if I have the RJ85 features covered correctly. Thanks!
Peter
Satcom Guru: LMI2933 LAMIA AVRO RJ85 Medellín Deadstick
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Old 8th Dec 2016, 19:31
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AFAIK Ecojet is still operating.

Re Quiroga salary.
According to his father-in-law Pinto, at least 4 of the crew were not being paid at some point.

“Upon receipt of the proposal to form the company, it teamed with other former military pilots like him, and formed the company.They took out loans in the bank to pay Bisa insurance of the ship and civilians, and all that corresponds in the proceedings, only then could rent the aircraft. He is not guilty as they want to accuse "he added. Eight months ago he and his four associates who formed his crew could not pay their own salaries.
Piloto de LaMia pasaba apuros económicos | Noticias de Bolivia y el Mundo - EL DEBER

(Don't know if Pinto is believable but the company's financials were accessed by journalists last week. On paper, they had about US $16k.) Anyway if it's true, perhaps it helps add another explanation to this shared denial & risk-taking?
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