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CRJ down in Sweden

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CRJ down in Sweden

Old 8th Jan 2016, 12:39
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Crash site found at 02:15z by RNoAF F16
I am bit surprised - at 2:15z it must have been completely dark, even Moon didn't help much. F-16 is a fast jet so my respect to the pilot who can find such a small trace at night. After crash fire maybe?
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 12:45
  #22 (permalink)  
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Infra-red detection on the F-16 perhaps ? Crash site would have been warmer than the surrounding snow after impact/fire ?
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 12:51
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah, they've got pretty impressive IR/night vision. Plus location is probably almost exactly at last known radar contact? The first description of the site was also released well before daylight.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 14:37
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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IR video

Video captured by the F16 has been released:
Norske F-16 fant flyet - se video fra havaristedet - NRK Nordland - Lokale nyheter, TV og radio

Helo at the scene is Norwegian Air Ambulance.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 14:50
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Definitely too early to conclude with what happened. But as mentioned, the small crash area tells us that it was a nose down impact probably. T-tails(as the MD-80) have had problems with the jackscrew and the horizontal stabilizer earlier. This AC had 38 000 hours, and from 1993. Anybody know if the CRJ have any history with jackscrew fatigue?
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 15:30
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Picture of the airplane in question, and a location.

http://gfx.nrk.no//SOwf0w-SW7Q7MgJXf...f6ARiioEE0AVPQ

This is above the Arctic Circle. Weather is probably -30C or more, most likely windy, making the chill really hard. This area has no roads due to the mountain terrain so you really need snow mobiles or helis to get there. The hours of daylight are very low, and the sun won't rise above the horizon at this latitude.

Another picture of the airplane, from Flightradar24 twitter:

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Old 8th Jan 2016, 16:18
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Right off the top of my head, in 2 minutes I came up with 4 widely different scenarios that equally fit the known facts at this moment. Based on previous events with a similar profile - extreme dive from cruise altitude.

And I've probably missed a couple - aviation is pretty good at coming up with "new" holes in the cheese,, that we've never run across before.

I don't list them, because someone is sure to start "fixating" on one or the other - with 80%+ odds of being wrong. Which is a poor way to maintain credibility.

I expect additional information will be forthcoming, which will eliminate some of those scenarios, and point more strongly to others.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 16:31
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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I hope they can recover the data from the CVR & FDR. It looks some impact that.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 16:33
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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That the crew were able to get out a (brief) mayday call eliminates certain scenarios too.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 17:30
  #30 (permalink)  
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Regrettably PPRuNe at its very worst again. Maybe the mods will take a look at the Flyer forums where the Top Man closed the last two fatal accident threads due to this sort of inappropriate garbage.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 19:27
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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I hope they can recover the data from the CVR & FDR. It looks some impact that.
My thoughts as well - that looks more like a meteor crater than an aircraft crash. Twenty year old recorders might not be up to it
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 21:31
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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While 9000fpm is fast its not THAT fast (its less than 100knots), and doesn't seem to be consistent with the speed of impact implied by the photos of the crash site. Since the crash site photo is "real" and the 9000fpm is a report and subject to being wrong for various reasons, based on the VERY limited info we have now i might be tempted to suggest they came down a LOT faster than that...
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 21:48
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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While 9000fpm is fast its not THAT fast (its less than 100knots), and doesn't seem to be consistent with the speed of impact implied by the photos of the crash site. Since the crash site photo is "real" and the 9000fpm is a report and subject to being wrong for various reasons, based on the VERY limited info we have now i might be tempted to suggest they came down a LOT faster than that...
I Agree
Looks to be closer to Mach 1 and 70 to 80 degrees ND.
Not pleasant to contemplate.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 22:31
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Interresting IR imagery indeed. Looks like a very high speed almost vertical impact. As others have mentioned this might have far exceeded the flight recorder design envelope. A pretty strange and dramatic one.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 23:18
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Since the crash site photo is "real" and the 9000fpm is a report and subject to being wrong for various reasons, based on the VERY limited info we have now i might be tempted to suggest they came down a LOT faster than that...
The maximum rate of descent was closer to 30,000fpm.
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Old 9th Jan 2016, 00:08
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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If the figures quoted above are to be believed then my initial thought is an accident similar to this.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alas...nes_Flight_261
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Old 9th Jan 2016, 04:24
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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As an ex. 200 pilot, an incident that a colleague had, comes to mind..Thrust reverser cowl separated from the engine in flight, and hit the tail on the way out..Damage, but landed safely..


We do not know what happened to this aircraft, but they will find out..
My deepest sympathies to the friends and families..


Fly Safe..
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Old 9th Jan 2016, 17:00
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Locating the "four corners" of the accident will be a first priority, to determine inflight breakup possibility.
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Old 9th Jan 2016, 18:05
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Parts of the black boxes have been found!

What parts, are not specified, but it seems they too were smashed to smithereens in the crash.

Delar av svarta lådan hittad - Nyheter | SVT.se

Vi har hittat vissa delar men inte kompletta enheter. Det kommer att ta dagar att hitta dem, säger Nicolas Seger.
Målsättningen är att vara klar med utredningen inom tolv månader, säger Nicolas Seger.
My translation:

We have found certain parts but no complete units. It will take days to find them, says Nicolas Seger.

The goal is to finish the investigation within twelve months, says Nicolas Seger.

(Comment: Nicolas Seger is heading the investigation for Haverikommissionen, the Swedish equivalent to AAIB/NTSB/BEA)

Last edited by MrSnuggles; 9th Jan 2016 at 18:06. Reason: clarifying Nicolas
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Old 9th Jan 2016, 19:35
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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FWIW
The contents of the mayday call they reportedly made should have given the investigation team some early clues.
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