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Food for thought

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Food for thought

Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:17
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Food for thought

I know we are very good on this forum as dissecting the minutiae of incidents and accidents, but I thought it would be worth pausing briefly how fantastically safe commercial aviation actually is...

The latest IATA data shows that in the last five years, pax volumes have grown from 2.6bn to 3.3bn, with this year forecast at 3.5bn: over the six year period 2010-15 it totals 18.54bn journeys. Let's round that down to 18bn.

The BBC calculates that 2218 pax died in commercial airline crashes in the period 2010-14; and this year so far it's 494 (we sincerely hope of course that this total does not rise).

So let's round that up to 3000.

3000 out of 18,000,000,000 ? So 1 in every 6 million pax carried died in a crash. That number is too high and we should always seek to reduce it, but frankly I'll take those odds !!
jxf63 is offline  
Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:24
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stats are great until you or one of your family members are 1of those in 6million who die in an aircraft accident.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:30
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Join Date: May 2008
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I guess all those crying about airline safety (or lack thereof) are quite happy to get in a car... I think I read a 1 in 200 chance of being involved in an incident, and 1 in 100 chance of dying in said incident (1 in 20000 chance of dying on the road).
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:35
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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It's more Jet Blast thread.

Just think how safe your car will be if you will be forced to make daily checks, take medical exams before any journey, must obtain special license to drive in bad weather or in the winter, must report to traffic control at every turnpoint etc...
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:02
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Without question, the most dangerous part of an airline trip is the drive to/from the airport.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:05
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And you can further reduce the odds...

...by choosing the airline you fly with.

While AF buck the trend, it is far safer to fly in the Western world than with many of the Eastern / African carriers.

Your stats would be even more informative if broken down by continent...
Station_Calling is offline  
Old 8th Nov 2015, 20:30
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: France
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Without question, the most dangerous part of an airline trip is the drive to/from the airport.
Because the units (paxs*km) are chosen to make this result.
If you consider the number of travel hours, it's no more true.
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