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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:50
  #1801 (permalink)  
 
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are we sure this last H S picture is the Left?
Yes, it is the same one we have already seen, just a new angle.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:50
  #1802 (permalink)  
 
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The triangular shaped protrusion at the top left of this image:
appears not to be present in the second photograph just provided.
Because it's under cameramen feets
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:55
  #1803 (permalink)  
 
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good point propduffer

Originally Posted by Propduffer View Post
This is an outstanding thread, a credit to PPRuNe but there are two kinds of posts I've mostly skipped over. The first kind are the "picture analysis" posts which seem to be a separate subject to me. The second type of posts I discount are the ones that propose that if the front joint of the HS were to disengage the HS would flop to 90 to the flight path. I don't have a picture of a ready to install 321 HS but if someone can find such a picture I'm sure it will show that about 2/3rds of the surface area is behind the pivot point. Thus MD80 fanatic is correct in his statement that the HS would align itself with the wind direction in case of loss of the front connection.

It is possible that when the tail section separated from the rest of the plane the VS caught the 280kt (IAS) wind blast and overpowered the HS effects and caused the HS to snap from leading edge down to leading edge up (or even back and forth) and imposed destructive loads. But that can only be a theory for now.


A second point that has been bothering me a bit is all the finger pointing at ISIS. The Russians have been very busy for the last few weeks bombing Al Nustra front positions (read: Al Quida), so they are more likely to be the group with a grudge against Russia.

Again: great thread!
Good points Propduffer.......
(a)My poor memory of early construction picture showed two rear pivots well aft.
(b)even so, loss of control stiffness would likely lead to flutter to destruction
very rapidly indeed, coupled with shredding and shedding of trailing edge components., rapid up downbending loads
Sorry to repeat. I've been there seen that.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:55
  #1804 (permalink)  
 
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Kulvers, I think we are talking about a different thing.


The part I am talking about is on the top left of the piece in the photo I linked to; it is a triangular shaped protrusion to the side.


It ought therefore to be present on the top right of the piece in the second photograph as the angle is reversed, if indeed it is the same piece.


I cannot see it. (I don't think this is the same piece of the plane)
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:56
  #1805 (permalink)  
 
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thank you Kulverstukas

Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
And if it is trailing edge, we now face strange picture about any control surfaces (rudder, elevators, slats etc.) are torn off or missing (not shown to us).
Sorry, Please, are we sure this last H S picture is the Left? not a djfferent one (>starboard?)
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 18:59
  #1806 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry, Please, are we sure this last H S picture is the Left? not a djfferent one (>starboard?)
The triangular shaped protrusion at the top left of this image:
http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/...22868c7e21.jpg
appears not to be present in the second photograph just provided.
indeed, but maybe due to the first taken with a long/tele lens (at distance), changing the perspective (the second has another photographer directly there -in the scene- too).
to 99.9 %, compare here (curvature as inverted wing, metallic attachment point to the rear, same composite failure upwards):
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...B6henruder.jpg
and the other picture of the same HS (LH)
http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/...22868c7e21.jpg
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:03
  #1807 (permalink)  
 
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susier, which one?

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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:07
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Kulverstukas

Number 1, there. Sorry, I couldn't figure out how to annotate a photo and then insert it here


Also I think the profile of #3 (squarish protrusion to the upper surface) is slightly different in the two photographs.


It could of course be a camera/distance issue, I'm not certain.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:09
  #1809 (permalink)  
 
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Gave me second thoughts at first, but just spent a couple of minutes comparing the two photos, they are definitely the same, just a trick is played by the camera angle.

The triangular bit (1) is the remnants of a frame on the underside of the skin much behind the fracture plane.

There are several broken layers of the composite skin. The brownish one is the middle at (3) is hiding the gray plane which is visible clearly from the other side.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:10
  #1810 (permalink)  
 
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As I told you, this video was shoot from point where #1 is located (if a bit further, then it's under lower text overlay). Triangular thingy is a rib and possibly pivot point for elevator, thus reinforced. Which can explain why it stays.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:13
  #1811 (permalink)  
 
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Oh I understand now - perspective - I thought you meant the other cameraman.


Many thanks, and apologies for being a dufus..
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:16
  #1812 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
Egypt almost certainly. It will (going on previous form) never be admitted by them to be a bomb, that is the only certainty coming out of Egypt I'm afraid.
It's a bomb.

Well it is probably a bomb according to an Egyptian source quoted on the BBC.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:18
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
As I told you, this video was shoot from point where #1 is located (if a bit further, then it's under lower text overlay). Triangular thingy is a rib and possibly pivot point for elevator, thus reinforced. Which can explain why it stays.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:21
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HS top? LE?

Ok, thanks FDM, LE/TE very clear by your pic. Deleted all previously written in this post, except: So What caused the flutter? Control linkage failure? HS pivot failure?

Very difficult to imagine a force breaking the HS along the line it did break.

Last edited by Leightman 957; 8th Nov 2015 at 19:28. Reason: Original post text proven all wrong.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:38
  #1815 (permalink)  
 
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FDM, exactly! If only - I think - this trailing triangular point visible is next rib.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:41
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Originally Posted by andrasz View Post
@ slats11

Anyone with basic understanding of the dynamics and effects of an explosion at 31 thousand feet at 400 knots would and should instantly recognise that the video cannot show this accident, smoke will never propagate that way under those conditions.

Also such black smoke comes from a sustained incomplete combustion of heavy carbon compounds (heavy fuels, plastics, rubber, etc.), a bomb (especially high explosives)will give off a puff of white smoke, as the essence of a chemical explosion is instantaneous complete combustion. [...]
Andrasz - I submit that you are speaking with excessive certainty here.

I'm generally skeptical, too, and dismissed the video when it first came out, but as details of the crash have become clearer, I'm not as certain anymore.

To refute your absolute claims, I'd like to refer you to the following video which shows practice shoot-downs of drones by US Air National Guard planes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xISpZYajveA

In particular, look at the "kill" at 3:22 - the missile hit apparently releases and ignites a plume of fuel from the target drone, which initially burns brightly, and then turns into a puff of black smoke.
If you continue watching, for a while, there's only a small flame visible on the wreckage until a few seconds later when the flame gets larger and a visible trail of black smoke develops again.

This is by no means conclusive proof that the footage is real, but it refutes your very absolute claims that the black smoke is impossible under the conditions of the flight.

I'm still very skeptical of the reality of the footage, but I think your absolute rejection is based on shaky arguments.
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:48
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RE Phoenix #1781 (permalink)

#1781 (permalink)
"Unrolled" fuselage is not relevant, since the aircraft at cruise altitude(inflated state) behaves as a punctured balloon.
Nope - There are way too many crackstoppers-stringers, frames ( circumferentials ) involved to act like a puncture ballon.

https://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/m...sion-minimyth/ show what can happen using same differential pressures as at altitude.

Note the section of body part at 1:40 they are hiding behind showing typical inside absent interior trim. And the extra reinforcing around the windows, the long stringers, and part frame( circumferentials )

As to the photo- it **might** be the result of the plane tumbling at speed so the body ' tube" is into the airstream .
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 19:56
  #1818 (permalink)  
 
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FDMII

An interesting picture of the L/H HS from Kulverstukas - it seems it is, as it logically should be, an inverted airfoil - doesn't it?

If so, it looks like the found part would be from the Right side? Don't you think?
And if so, it also looks as if the Leading Edge is missing?

Of course my eyes are not what they once were...
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 20:10
  #1819 (permalink)  
 
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LifeNews today makes interview with tourist returned from SSH. They told that with all security enforcement and luggage restriction, they still was offered to be put through VIP route without security check for $20
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Old 8th Nov 2015, 20:15
  #1820 (permalink)  
 
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Astra Mike
I'm agree with you, just will add one more note - take a look at the broken leading edge of one part (post #1790) and another leading edge ..
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