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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 7th Nov 2015, 12:53
  #1601 (permalink)  
 
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Not to mention the 400+ KT airstream.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 12:55
  #1602 (permalink)  
 
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"I am assuming that this flight route may have a fairly regular track, so once takeoff time was known, it would have been fairly easy to have videographers, maybe multiple, in the right locations."

We are not the only ones that know about the flight tracker sites. In the last 10 years, terrorists have become very tech savvy concerning the internet .
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:02
  #1603 (permalink)  
 
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@Kulverstukas

I suspect that no matter who caused the bombing (if confirmed), that ISIS will be blamed.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:05
  #1604 (permalink)  
 
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Security checks

Just like pilots or operators, perhaps passengers should be able to 'report occurrences' when they notice lax airport security that is of concern? Some type of online 'report' form could be considered.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:07
  #1605 (permalink)  
 
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Too many coincidences

There is some disagreement here whether the video is genuine or not.

Consider this however.

The video clearly shows an explosion around the aft fuselage of the aircraft. There is too much smoke for a simple bomb - there must have been substantial combustion. Furthermore the wings and everything forward remained intact. And the plane kept flying relatively unaffected for at least some time.

This video was released within 24 hours of the crash, before non-involved parties could have known any details. There was no claim of a missile - that seems to have been assumed in early reports. There was just a claim of "brought down" or "bring down."

Our current understanding of the crash is an explosion in the aft fuselage. In a plane with an aft centre tank. And the plane appears to have flown on on for some distance. And the wings and the forward fuselage appear to have come down relatively in one piece.

People have speculated it is the wrong aircraft and the combustion was an engine fire on a DC9 or similar (i.e. rear mounted engines). Would not the sudden loss of an engine cause significant yaw?

Plus no one has been able to find another source of this footage.

Sometimes 2+2 does equal 4
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:11
  #1606 (permalink)  
 
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@ GroundSpanner

With that qualification, I agree. I have dealt directly with some of those shady characters. My favorite one was the guy who, on being confronted with the query that I've heard the company he is representing went out of business a few weeks earlier under somewhat suspect circumstances, did not even blink just pulled another business card from his pocket while attempting to pull the one already in front of me on the table...

That being said, I think we can all agree that if ILFC supervised that repair and it was done at Toulouse, it is likely to have been up to the proper standards. In any case, short of a RPB rupture which clearly was not the case here, a fatigue crack of the skin or one of the frames due to damage / improper repair decades earlier is very unlikely to cause an instant disintegration as we saw here. The Aloha cabrio could even land in one piece.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:11
  #1607 (permalink)  
 
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Just to remind about "tighter security at airport" last two suicide bombing in RF was done right at the queues to metal detector frames (DME and Volgograd).
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:17
  #1608 (permalink)  
 
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slats, for me timeline look like that:

1) Info about plane lost
2) Info that crash site was found
3) First photos in the press and at the forums
4) ISIS claim (just banner with some Arabic posted)
5) More photos and info that plane was destroyed at altitude and that there definitely was fire ant that tail separates
6) Video posted with comments "plane was shut down by us", quite quickly removed
7) Agreement that there was no traces of any missile
8) Video posted again with "we did it but we will not tell you how"

Am I wrong?

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 7th Nov 2015 at 15:08.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:22
  #1609 (permalink)  
 
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Still missing - update 6

Ahead of a long awaited and probably due Egyptian press conference:

Still missing the THS, centerbox of vertical stab, any part of the rudder, 3 cargo doors, some pax doors, a number of fuselage panels (windows), ... and that's only talking about the 'outside' and only about the major components. Even when accepting that a significant part of the fuselage has been destroyed by impact and subsequent fire.

Till now, as far as i have seen, zero CLEAR evidence of any intentional explosion or exploding device. Good evidence would require far better pictures. And real evidence would go down to the micro level.

There is a big difference between a loud sound and an explosion. And explosions can be, amongst others, classed as structural (failures related) and bombs (or missiles or explosives or ...).
Good evidence requires a real description or soundfile of the sound. And real evidence requires spectral analysis.

So how anybody can think, at this stage, with that lack of evidence, and lack of information, that everything is solved is beyond me. There will be serious questions even after the press conference today, after a preliminary report and even after the final report. As far as i know, cases are never fully closed (ref for example the 737 rudder cases). Airplanes and the aerospace system are complex, there are no single and easy answers. We are looking for a chain of events with multiple elements and a lot of possible interaction or single action relations.

Hope for a good and clear press conference. Including information how the investigation will proceed. And if the prio becomes a criminal one, some information on how the safety one will be handled.
+++
With the present state of the CVR (SSMCVR) and FDR (...) - it would be very interesting to hear something about the condition of the QAR, maintenance recorders and the like. From the few pictures that we have the racks and boxes looked rather good.

Last edited by A0283; 7th Nov 2015 at 14:07. Reason: +++
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 13:32
  #1610 (permalink)  
 
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@ MrSnuggles...

Quote:

Selon la source citée par l'Agence France-Presse, les photos des débris montrent que certains sont criblés d'impacts allant de l'intérieur vers l'extérieur de l'appareil, « ce qui accrédite plutôt la thèse d'un engin pyrotechnique ».

My translation:
The source* cited by AFP expressed that the photos of debris had certain impact damages on the interior versus the exterior of the airframe << that very well could credit the hypothesis of a pyrotechnic event** >>.

*in context, this source seems to be the same source cited earlier, I made a translation of that a few pages ago.

**engin can mean both "engine" and "method by which something is driven/propulsed in the wanted direction"

Your wording is not totally correct in its translation. I will try to be a bit more precise in my wording...

débris montrent que certains sont sont criblés d'impacts allant de l'intérieur vers l'extérieur de l'appareil,
My translation... "debris show that some are riddled with impacts going from the interior to the exterior of the aircraft"
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:03
  #1611 (permalink)  
 
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@Kulverstukas

Just to remind about "tighter security at airport" last two suicide bombing in RF was done right at the queues to metal detector frames (DME and Volgograd).
That's why the focus should be set on observing the behaviour of pax and airport employees instead of spending senseless amounts of money on useless hardware.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:18
  #1612 (permalink)  
 
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@ ettore

Amen to that.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:26
  #1613 (permalink)  
 
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ettore, just five minutes ago read big praise post at LJ about Israeli security at airports... And immediately after that one which criticized it and demonstrates how's its all is just money laundering (government subsidies stealing)

What I mean, it's usual standoff of armor and bullet. Also note that bullet needs only one chance of numerous to succeed (like old joke of probability to meet crocodile in the center of Moscow - it's 1/2, because you either meet it or don't) and at the same time armor which prevents other 999 of bullets will be treated as failed.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:36
  #1614 (permalink)  
 
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slats, for me timeline look like that:

1) Info about plane lost
2) Info that crash site was found
3) First photos in the press and at the forums
4) ISIS claim (just banner with some Arabic posted)
5) More photos and info that plane was destroyed at altitude and that there definitely was fire ant that tail separates
6) Video posted with comments "plane was shut down by us", quite quickly removed
7) Agreement that there was no traces of any missile
7) Video posted again with "we did it but we will not tell you how"

Am I wrong?
I'm not sure there was any claim the plane was shot down. I think this was an assumption that got incorporated into media reports. I may be wrong however.

Also, it would not be surprising if ISIS had a generic banner prepared in advance, and followed with the actual recording a short period later.

So I'm not sure the above sequence of events makes it less likely to be genuine.

We may just have to wait and see - time will likely tell if it is genuine or not.


If this video is true, what will Joe Public think? I believe he will think "These guys can bomb a plane with such reliability they can pre-position someone to record it." That is a pretty frightening thought.

As such, if it is true then don't expect our leaders to confirm its legitimacy.

Conversely I believe our leaders would have been quick to denounce it as a fake if they could. We would have been referred to the real incident. Or we would have graphics experts telling us it was computer generated and why.

In this case, the silence is deafening and (to me) suggests it is accepted as genuine.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:45
  #1615 (permalink)  
 
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Well to me it is obviously not realistic in this scenario. Looks like the smoke plume from a relatively low temperature fire in slow air. Wasn't time for this to develop and lateral width of plume much too large for injection into fast airstream. Try blowing smoke out of your car window at 60 mph.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:45
  #1616 (permalink)  
 
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slats, there also can be that it was bombing but this video is fake, isn't it?

As for government, right way of action is treat any information as not true until contrary will be positively confirmed and act in precaution measures as if any information is true until contrary will be proven. Right?

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 7th Nov 2015 at 15:07.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:52
  #1617 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
slats, for me timeline look like that:

1) Info about plane lost
2) Info that crash site was found
3) First photos in the press and at the forums
4) ISIS claim (just banner with some Arabic posted)
5) More photos and info that plane was destroyed at altitude and that there definitely was fire ant that tail separates
6) Video posted with comments "plane was shut down by us", quite quickly removed
7) Agreement that there was no traces of any missile
7) Video posted again with "we did it but we will not tell you how"

Am I wrong?
6) could have been taken down due request/orders from a much higher authority within ISIS. Several reasons come to mind...
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:54
  #1618 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
Makes assumption on involvement of ISIS on base that they claim that "Russia will regret" is not too smart. I can remind you:




But I hope it doesn't mean that US was involved in bombing
Why on earth would you say that.. ?
It's like saying Holland or Malaysia did it as retribution for MH17
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:57
  #1619 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
"These guys can bomb a plane with such reliability they can pre-position someone to record it." That is a pretty frightening thought.
These guys also specialise in putting their horrific deeds on display, don't they? How come they accomplished all this, yet didn't bother with a tripod and proper camera, so they could show us in glorious HD? Track the plane for a minute or so and show us people falling? It's too much of a squandered opportunity, imho.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 14:58
  #1620 (permalink)  
 
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slats, there also can be that it was bombing but this video is fake, isn't it?
Sure. Could be.

But ISIS currently have a reputation that all recordings have been genuine and they have always performed whatever atrocity they have released video of. I suspect ISIS value that reputation.

That reputation takes a hit if this is a fake.
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