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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:15
  #1361 (permalink)  
 
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As for me, I'm just a humble engineer SLF, and I will be avoiding antique cycle-fatigued A321 airframes in the future, especially those which might have seen unreported tailstrikes and heavy landings. I hope someone will be smart enough to get an inspection régime going. One set of corpses is more than enough.

Edmund
how do you intend to avoid flying on A321 with an UNreported tailstrike or heavy landing.?

If you are going to be that paranoiac suggest you stop flying, all makes of aircraft have heavy landings, BTW did you stop flying in 737s after Hawaii open top incident.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:15
  #1362 (permalink)  
 
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"Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site."

Reports on finding the toddler were very clear she was found a great distance from the crash site. Greater than 21 miles was what was reported, and investigators needed to greatly expand their search area, especially along the earlier flightpath.

Nowhere in any of the reports was there any ambiguity as to the child being found distant from the crash site.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:16
  #1363 (permalink)  
 
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My reasoning is that if the wreckage had fallen like a stone, straight down along the y-axis, the impact with ground would have been more severe. A crater of some kind, more damage to the outer parts of the wings.
This demonstrates a flawed understanding of the real physical characteristics of an airliner. "Like a stone" is a complete misunderstanding of the relative density of a jet plane or its components. Instead, the average chunk of a jetplane is mostly air. It will not fall like a stone. Instead, it falls like a nearly empty cardboard box.

Barring an intact nose-first impact at very high speed, like 9/11 United 93, or the ValueJet 592 Everglades crash, which are clearly not the case here, the only chunks that are even capable of "cratering" typical soils are engines and landing gear.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:20
  #1364 (permalink)  
 
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Russia now suspends flight to Egypt.

Airport Chaos As Russia Suspends Egypt Flights
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:20
  #1365 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mach411 View Post
With respect to the position the toddler was found, I think RYFQB solved the mystery in post #1359. When the body was found, it appears that according to TASS the most recent search area completed was 33 square kilometres. 33 kilometres is 20.51 miles, so the most likely explanation is the information was misreported as direct distance of 20 miles from the main crash site.

Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site.
I missed that original post so thank you for quoting it and thanks to RYFQB for posting it.

It certain has a strong ring of a possible misunderstanding, hope it is correct as it removes a very "inconvenient" period of "What the heck was happening between then and black fail and apparent start point of break up.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:20
  #1366 (permalink)  
 
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Wouldn't a jackscrew failure / runaway THS as the initial event like some have postulated (e.g. #1260) leave some trace in the FDR? What's its acquisition/sampling rate?
Not necessarily. While very unlikely, the jackscrew nut or some other attached component can fail catastrophically, instantly releasing the stab to full nose-down control. For example, the second half of this incident:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska...nes_Flight_261

To play to the "bomb" idea, a tiny chunk of explosive in the right spot on the jackscrew would do this instantly. Or a larger chunk in that general area.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:21
  #1367 (permalink)  
 
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Search area

On Rusian TV the resque team was talking that search area is 2-3 km wide.
So 30 square kilometers search area is more like 10x3 km .
Doesnt mean, that toddler was found 10 km away, my gues - from 6 to 10.
Again, on TV there was mentioned "next day we will search even more far". So, from 6 to 10 km is reasonable.


Also, on page 60 - there is the link to russian web site with passanger manifest. What was is not mention here, is story related to passengers on seats 30C and 30D. One has traumas related to falling, is "burnt not much", and recognizible by relatives, another one not indentified (or not found).
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:23
  #1368 (permalink)  
 
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pax seats scorched?

the live RT HD news at 1200 yesterday had superb clear video of the scorched seats 2 rows x 3 seaters as i said in post 1096

they are not the same seats as in this https://youtu.be/yQCVLAlkYVE

as i said sorry i cannot find the RT clip - it was on their live UK report 1200 5/11

re row 9
i do not know what config metrojet had on their 321 re door 2/row 9
i think their config was the legal A321 max at 220Y so row 9 would be 2 rows ahead in zone A (fwd cabin, fwd of the door 2)

i have travelled this year on many 321's at door 2 exit -
Germania and it was row 11 and 12 Y215
Fly Niki was row 10 Y210
and Aegean I was in row 9 and 10 C/Y mix class

so all differ.....many airlines put an offset double seat pair right in the doorway with a triple seat behind (Germania was row 11DE and 12 DEF behind with 12F having no seat in front - same as Aegean)
Niki was a triple both sides at the door 2 no offset seats and was row 10 XL
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:25
  #1369 (permalink)  
 
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Monitoring flights in/out of SSH on FR24.

I see EZY have hired the Titan 763, currently en-route to SSH

I see 2 EZY flights on their way back to UK, to LTN and LGW

I also see 2 TCX flights that look like they are turning around, namely TCX2706 from MAN (just done a 180 over Albania) and TCX1846 (turning off-track and in descent over Crete).

Will leave at that rather than speculate as to what's going on with the above.

Last edited by Wycombe; 6th Nov 2015 at 14:29. Reason: Removed Russian update
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:28
  #1370 (permalink)  
 
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Russia bans flights to Egypt

Sinai plane crash: Russia suspends Egypt flights - BBC News
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:29
  #1371 (permalink)  
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Brandon, my reference to 'proverbial stone' was 'as in dropped in a well' rather than as a ballistic item with unrestricted horizontal and vertical components.

More like a sycamore leaf would be more apt; high drag reducing both vertical and horizontal components.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:29
  #1372 (permalink)  
 
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Heat Flash Update

The U.S. Pentagon has released additional information about the "heat flash" seen by the SBIRS satellite. Further analysis of the data shows an initial IR flash followed by THREE additional flashes at lower altitudes, the final one most likely at ground level.

(As reported on CBS TV news.)
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:30
  #1373 (permalink)  
 
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As reported Russia is also suspending all flights to Egypt based on advise from their security services. With UK, US and Russian governments having acted on what they must interpret as credible intelligence, my vote is with a bomb theory, irrespective of all the PPRuNe experts babble.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:35
  #1374 (permalink)  
 
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ccording to the BEA there are 6 Airbus technical advisors on site. They will have seen the evidence close up, not the photos that PPruners are trying to interpret. These Airbus experts are just as likely to be British, Spanish (or German) as French. In the course of their work they are representing the manufacturer, not any particular nation State.
Just a quibble, but the Airbus technical advisors do represent the state of manufacture and as such their findings are expected to flow through the Investigator In Charge.

It is likely that any outside influences in what the press prints come only from within states (Prime ministers, presidents etc.) and not from technical advisors on-site.

I was particulary impressed by the guy in the videos writing with a sharpie pen along the fracture of the tail empenage. The arrows he was drawing map the progression and direction of the attachments as they separated. This likely will be used to assess the aerodynamic force vectors responsible. Do this over other major sections of the aircraft structure and you can point to the location of the initial break and then concentrate on a laboratory examination for things like over-pressure and/or cratering
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:47
  #1375 (permalink)  
 
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Let's hope that's all it is PN and not some action from the Egyptian authorities as has also been suggested (could be media clap-trap).

TCX1846 appears to have landed at HER.

There are also a couple of TOM flights en-route (from BHX and MAN) and they seem to be continuing.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:50
  #1376 (permalink)  
 
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As reported Russia is also suspending all flights to Egypt based on advise from their security services. With UK, US and Russian governments having acted on what they must interpret as credible intelligence, my vote is with a bomb theory, irrespective of all the PPRuNe experts babble.
Indeed, this is actually a major development, and places huge credibility on the bomb theory as he (Putin) is likely to have significant input from MAK.

As Russians are the major tourists to Egypt (followed by the UK as #2) this will really impact the Egyptians.

Updated:

Russia has u-turned on its decision to suspend flying certificates for Boeing 737s, in a further hint that it no longer believes the fault for the Sinai plane crash was mechanical.
Think they mean Airbus...

Last edited by flash8; 6th Nov 2015 at 15:09.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:50
  #1377 (permalink)  
 
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i do not know what config metrojet had on their 321 re door 2/row 9
i think their config was the legal A321 max at 220Y so row 9 would be 2 rows ahead in zone A (fwd cabin, fwd of the door 2)
looking at the manifest, row 9 and 10 has 3 seats left and right, and row 11 has 2.

looking at the pair of three rows of seats in that video i think that they are row 25, by 3R door. The front row of seats has a tray on the back of them so could they be row 23, and row 34 is missing?

this would be consistent with a large break up of the aircraft rear of the wings.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 14:55
  #1378 (permalink)  
 
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Russian state news agency TASS is reporting the Kremlin as suspending flights to SSH 'until the causes of A321 crash are clear'. It goes on to report that 'Putin has instructed the government to ensure the return of Russian citizens from Egypt'.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 15:00
  #1379 (permalink)  
 
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Wycombe, there's a BHX MON flight as well that's been in the hold at DELMA for a good fifteen mins. Will be interesting to see what happens with the TOM flight. Nothing's been in or out of SSH for a while now.
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Old 6th Nov 2015, 15:09
  #1380 (permalink)  
 
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Just a quibble, but the Airbus technical advisors do represent the state of manufacture and as such their findings are expected to flow through the Investigator In Charge.

It is likely that any outside influences in what the press prints come only from within states (Prime ministers, presidents etc.) and not from technical advisors on-site.
Be sure, if the Airbus advisors believe that their findings are different from what is stated in the report. Airbus will publish does findings in a "proper way".
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