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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 5th Nov 2015, 09:43
  #1061 (permalink)  
 
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irrespective of the actual cause of this, the fact is that security as HESH is a joke.

A friend was returning from there a few days after the incident. He remarked that when walking through the scanners, despite people setting off the alarm, they were just waved through. He did not witness one person being stopped and checked.

Similarly he had several litres of liquid in his bag. Despite it showing up on the x-ray machine (which he could see), the two security personnel were more interested in chatting to each other... they were facing each other, neither of them looking at the x-ray screen.

I've flown out of Sharm a lot in the past... I've witnessed bags way overweight, and hand luggage totally inappropriate being waved through willy nilly.

It is a fact that security at HESH is a joke, terrorists only have to be lucky once, security services need to help make their own luck to reduce the chances of anything happening. Despite a love of diving I wouldn't go back there until things are tightened up... even though for a Brit it offers the best diving/cost/accessibility option... you can nip across for a long weekend and get some very colourful dives in.

Egypt needs to address this, other dive sites (Dahab etc) are pretty much deserted, they need the tourist dollar badly.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 09:44
  #1062 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone else noticed that initially they said both black boxes had been safely retrieved, now they are saying one of them (Voice?) has been badly damaged. Would this normally be the case if the plane crashed due to a technical failure? I mean a mid air breakup and crash must surely be something the black boxes are designed to withstand?
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 09:52
  #1063 (permalink)  
 
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I mean a mid air breakup and crash must surely be something the black boxes are designed to withstand?
Obviously Russians and Egyptians can always appeal to BEA which was able to successfully repair (slightly?) damaged memory modules from AF447 flight recorders.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 09:57
  #1064 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by susier View Post
Can anyone explain how an explosive device situated close to the R4 could blow off the entire tail section, and not blow off the doors? I'm not suggesting it isn't possible, just interested in the technicalities of such a scenario.
Because the doors would not get past the door stops around the door frame. In order to open the doors normally on the ground you will see the doors slightly lift during the opening process allowing the doors to pass the stops. In the air with doors shut they would not get past the stops.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:01
  #1065 (permalink)  
 
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thrust reversers, lauda air

people keep asking about the possibility of a thrust reverser deployment.
After the Lauda air all reverser types had to be redesigned with 3 locks. two different systems, electric and hydraulic. i worked on many variations but not this particular thrust reverser type. nothing is impossble but i would be very surprised at this being the cause.
reversers had to be retrofitted as well with the extra locks.
in terms of likelihood, way down the list.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:02
  #1066 (permalink)  
 
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With the info that the CVR is damaged and the fact that it takes such a long time to extract data from the FDR, it must be time to ditch the steam age use of "black boxes" and get all civil aircraft into the 21st century. Direct telemetry systems are readily available and linked to GPS would provide instantaneous data on any situation. With all digital systems in any aircraft built in the last 30 years, it is time the airframe manufacturers and airlines got their act together.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:07
  #1067 (permalink)  
 
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Update on that pushback incident ( http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post9170056 ): pilot applied brakes during push back (?!).
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:09
  #1068 (permalink)  

Champagne anyone...?
 
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I still stand by what I said 4 days ago way back on page 12, namely that some internal force at the rear aircraft caused the rupturing of the pressure vessel which led to the tail detaching via an almost clean break around the frame just forward of the empennage.

Further theorising, the "bomb" also penetrated the aft pressure bulkhead causing the APU cone to detach along with the HS. Picture below shows tearing outwards of the aircraft skin at places, suggesting a rough location of the "explosive" force, with the skin then tearing linearly along a natural line, namely the frame.

So, in true PPRuNe internet expert form, I surmise: "explosive" device in aft seat row, aft toilet or rear galley. Detonates at top climb. APB breached, APU cone and HS detached by pressure shockwave and fall away. At the same time, the fuselage forward of the VS is ruptured and splits along the frame. Tail section detaches and falls away. Little/no fire damage as separation is caused by shockwave and shrapnel and occurs before any significant heat damage can occur. Seat of the explosion/fire remains with main fuselage. The rest of the aircraft continues forward accompanied by significant pitching down motion. 1 or both engines rotate up and over the wings, off their pylons due the pitching moment. Ruptured fuel lines etc lead to start of fireball. Remainder of aircraft falls, inverted, and lands planform and generally intact (wings and associated fuselage) further along the path of flight.

Red arrows show skin ruptured outwards. The blue arrows show crush and tears caused by impact with the ground at terminal velocity.





Note in the second picture the large piece of torn back skin near window followed by the skin "unzipping" itself up and over the roof and along the rivet line to the right. The strip of missing paint to the left of the window shows the fuselage skin has been repeatedly bent there - firstly outwards at the initial failure and then again as the tail hit the ground and the inertia of the window pane bent it back the other way.

Edit to add: yes, I'd agree it probably wasn't ISIS. More likely one of the various bands of rebels (or their sympathisers) currently getting malletted by the Russians in Syria. If it were ISIS they'd have been trying this against western aircraft in the region ages ago. ISIS, for all their medieval barbarism, are trying to create a state, not another Al-Qaeda style terrorist group.

Last edited by StopStart; 5th Nov 2015 at 10:14. Reason: Yet more random theorising...
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:22
  #1069 (permalink)  
 
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There are lots of electronic components inside the crash/fire proof shell, many of which may have suffered shock damage which would under normal circumstances be deemed BER but most at least would be repairable given time, money and the necessary equipment and expertise. In a case like this they will do everything they can to try to recover the data.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:24
  #1070 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lowbank View Post
After the Lauda air all reverser types had to be redesigned with 3 locks. two different systems, electric and hydraulic. i worked on many variations but not this particular thrust reverser type. nothing is impossble but i would be very surprised at this being the cause.
reversers had to be retrofitted as well with the extra locks.
Also, there were human performance issues in the Lauda Air accident. Upset recovery training has improved cross the board as well. Boeing simulated the accident during the investigation and found out that their test pilot was able to recover the aircraft even with a 6 second delay in application of the proper technique. Also, the crew was aware that the control issue was caused by uncommanded reverser deployment but without FDR data it could not be conclusively determined how the recovery was botched.

There have been incidents with unintentional reverser deplyoment in flight that ended up in control recovery, like KAL A300-600 incident off Jakarta in 1998.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:26
  #1071 (permalink)  
 
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@Nightinggale14 on recorders

Recorders are only part of a huge load of data and voice information. Albeit very important ones.

Within that context.

The available pictures show denting and bending of the power unit and the 'base plate' of the recorder(s). The memory unit looked unscratched even, and without exposure to fire. So yes, it is surprising that they do not have immediated 'plug-in and read' access to the data. But not uncommon.

So if there is damage you would expect it to be from impact dynamics. In this case the impact speed of the plane appears to be less than other cases in which good access was obtained from the start. But still, not uncommon that there is damage.

The question that i get from this is, in what context was the recorder found. Was it on its tray in a large piece of structure (where the environment absorbs a large part of the energy), or was it in a small piece, or was it ejected from the tray and landed on its own. In the last case you might get closer to your design limits. I dont know, but at what stage (g-loads, impact angles and orientation, etc...) would for instance the board that carries the memory chips crack. In such a case plug and play is not possible. So you would transfer the board and memory to either a more specialized lab or the recorder manufacturer. Nothing strange about that. Takes time of course.

Shows you how important it is that people who inform the 'public' are knowledgeable and careful in the words they use. Same for the friends in the press. In this case it was suggested early on that it was 'impossible' to get information out of the recorder.

Last edited by A0283; 5th Nov 2015 at 10:42. Reason: @Nightingale14
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 10:40
  #1072 (permalink)  
 
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Niner Lima Charlie wrote:

Quote:
In the US News today
The US Pentagon reported that the satellite saw two heat events, one while the airplane was at altitude, and one upon impact with the ground.

"There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official, who is familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence analysis of the crash said today.
If accurate, this strikes me as important. Previously there has been talk of a (single) thermal event. Well, there was obviously a thermal event when the forward airframe and wings hit the desert - it's hard to think that all that fire damage occurred in flight. And if there was only one thermal event, that would argue for in-flight structural failure rather than an in-flight explosion, however caused. "More than one thermal events" is - if true - genuine news. And may be in and of itself sufficient data for assorted governments to presume an attack on the plane until they can be convinced otherwise.
Seriously?

It's interesting that some news organizations are now reporting a bomb from ISIL as a likely cause.

The way ISIL are so quick to bleat about any such endeavors, the fact we haven't seen any "offical" martyrdom video of any bomber, and their weak attempt at trying to claim responsibility for this accident by releasing a video of it "being shot down" mere hours after it happened cast massive doubts on their involvement.

ISIL would be all over this with a slick social media campaign immediately following the crash with pictures and videos to prove it.

Don't forget,

"There are known knowns..."
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:12
  #1073 (permalink)  
 
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CVR damage

Looking at where the CVR/FDR are located, just in front of the HS, and the bent condition of the base plates, I think it is very possible that they were liberated from their mounts during the HS separation event. This event or ground inpact (that desert is hard) could have resulted in large G forces and the CVR issues reported by the AAIU.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:13
  #1074 (permalink)  
 
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Has anyone else seen the similarities to QZ8501?

I'm curious if any one else has noticed the similarities to AirAsia Flt 8501? We had a lot of great pictures available to us with the recovery of that 320-200. The slight variation is that QZ 8501 split further aft in the fuselage. Earlier before I saw these photos (233) I thought that maybe the aft pressure bulkhead let go. But after seeing where this fuselage split I 'm inclined to a different thought. Much has been said about the repaired tail strike damage. Having performed such repairs I simply regarded it as pure reaching by the media with any information they could get there hands on, after all its been 7 years since the repair.
Now however, I'm led to bring up a slightly different idea. What if this aircraft over rotated on takeoff? If you take a straight edge and capture the bottom of the main wheels and then rotate the edge along the aft fuselage, I believe we have just located the lower point of the split. I really don't agree with the bomb theory and the bulkhead is just too far away from the split to have been terminally affected. Maybe the repair hasn't been monitored as hit should have been? State side we would have been watching this repair and using nondestructive testing periodically. These are plausible scenarios for a split in tis location.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:18
  #1075 (permalink)  
 
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Hmmm...

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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:20
  #1076 (permalink)  
 
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If it is a bomb, then I'm not sure that IS/ISIS would want to trumpet this from the rooftops.

The way these organisations work, it could have been an affiliate or a cell that worked unauthorised.

Perhaps IS command (such that it is) wouldn't have wanted to rattle Russia's cage quite so hard.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:26
  #1077 (permalink)  
 
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There are plenty of people in Sinai who have good cause to be disaffected with the Egyptian state. It would not be the first time they have struck out at the tourist industry, which is generally seen by the locals as being for the benefit of outsiders and taking away their traditional living. No one suggested the suicide bomb in Dahab a few years ago was the work of outsiders.

It is not hard to imagine the security crackdown across Sinai has fuelled tensions in the area. This is not to condone a bombing, but violence begets violence. It is to easy (and in some cases all to convenient) to simply assume ISIS were responsible.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:27
  #1078 (permalink)  
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Very definitely stable doors.

I would surmise that the intelligence has a level of unfocused background noise. Sharm has happened and that noise is then coalesced and becomes the focus for action.

To do nothing and then suffer a further atrocity would bring down the Government. To stop flights, in other words say NO is an easy option.

That is politics.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:27
  #1079 (permalink)  

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Russian plan wreckage in Egypt appears to show shrapnel damage from within jet | Daily Mail Online
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 11:35
  #1080 (permalink)  
 
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@Kulver hmmm

Kulver that hole was pointed out by another poster a bit earlier in the thread as far as i know.

Next to the hole, just left, there appears to be a loose fragement originating from the hole. If so, then this would not comply with a high speed object punching through. It would suggest either a component pushed through on impact or a hole made by recovery teams to move panels.

I have it on my possible but as yet low probability 'list'.

Another explanation could be that it was one of the 'leaves' folded open, and this being one leaf breaking off on impact.

Is indeed the first one that could point to an inward-out punch. If it was outside-in, then, depending on the location of the panel, it could also be debris impact during the breakup sequence.

Last edited by A0283; 5th Nov 2015 at 11:45. Reason: Adding "Another explanation...
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