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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 31st Oct 2015, 13:22
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
With no communication and ADS-B signal stopped in air?
We don't know that ADS-B data stopped being sent, only that FlightRadar24 stopped receiving it, which isn't the same thing and may simply be a receiver range vs altitude issue.

Originally Posted by fullforward View Post
This was uncontrolable high speed plunge. This is for sure.
Hard to avoid that conclusion. After allowing for the fact that FR24 populates some data items that it hasn't picked up, what's left indicates that shortly before data was lost the aircraft was descending at 15-20,000 fpm and a relatively low groundspeed.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 13:35
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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No survivors
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 13:40
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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PAX manifest; 214 Russian, 3 Ukraine:
?????? ?????????? ???9268 ??????????????? ???????????
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 13:48
  #64 (permalink)  
 
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Poor quality fuel? I'm guessing fuel from the same
source will be tested.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 13:56
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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OMG!...

Surprised by the big number of "crash investigators wannabes" that have nothing to do except posting an huge amount of ridiculous speculations!
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 14:12
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Same aircraft had a tail strike in 2001:

ASN Aircraft accident Airbus A321-231 F-OHMP Cairo International Airport (CAI)

/A
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 14:26
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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@ Icepack:

Wondering the nationality of the flight crew. Whilst they may have a different attitude to risk, Russian crews are some of the best handling crew I have had the privalidge to meet. So loss of control would be be a surprise.
Having a "different attitude to risk" (how diplomatic of you...) is just as likely to lead to loss of control as diminished handling skills.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 14:33
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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ITV(UK) Quoting Egyptian security forces as saying the plane crashed due to technical reasons.

Quite how well the Egyptian security forces are trained in aircraft accident investigation I'm not sure...

Initial exam suggests plane crashed 'due to technical fault' - ITV News
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 14:45
  #69 (permalink)  
 
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Tragic news.
I would think the Egytians will be keen to demonstrate this was not terrorist related and knowing how they tend to only tell you what you want to hear rather than fact, I'd be very cautious of any early diagnosis.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 14:52
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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8 hours on, a short summary of information from sources appearing to be credible:

Based on FR24 data flight was in a ~500fpm steady climb passing FL310 when at 04:13 UTC there appears to be a sudden drastic drop in airspeed accompanied by a ~6000fpm descent. Data ceases ~25 seconds after initial upset, with last recorded altitude of FL280 consistent with rate of descent data.

Wreckage was reportedly found in the Hassna area. Even if taken broadly, the location is 30-40km from LKP, inconsistent with last FR24 registered airspeed (implying a ~300kt airspeed at registered ROD).

Wreckage was reported to be found in two major sections. Latest reports say bodies are found in a 5km radius surrounding main wreckage. If true, this would confirm an in-flight breakup.

Aircraft has suffered a tailstrike 14 years ago with a previous operator which has caused substantial damage.

An Egyptian official is quoted saying that the plot contacted ATC reporting engine trouble, but these remain unverified from any credible source. Same official is quoted that the crash was due to 'technical reasons', again without any verification or further elaboration. For the present, neither statements may be considered credible.

Egyptian government sources were quick to deny the possibility of a SAM downing the aircraft, however other possible foul-play was not ruled out. Given that it would be in Egypt's best interest to do so, this lack of such response could be significant, as is the fact that the Egyptian PM together with several ministers headed to the Sinai to "oversee developments" soon after the wreckage was first reached.

On the other hand, no group has claimed responsibility for the accident in the first 8 hours, as it would have been expected in case of any terrorist action. Any such claims popping up now are clearly reactive and unfounded.

Last edited by andrasz; 31st Oct 2015 at 15:11.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 15:13
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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A few clues

1) It is foolish to rely on FR24, the sytem works by collecting data over the internet from amatuer ADSB receivers owned by enthusiasts and joining the dots. There are plenty of these stations in well populated areas but the chances of any reliable receiver data in the middle of an enormous desert are a tad slim. In these circumstances FR24 extrapolates (guesses) by extending the last known trajectory until it recieves a valid report or times out.
It is therefore not possible to derive a rate of decent from the last guessed postion and a single and possibly unreliable following report.

2) "Vanished from radar" does not imply a problem, it just means that the aicraft moved outside of the limited coverage range of a civilian airport radar.

3) Anyone who uses the word "Plunge" is either a tabloid journalist or one of their clueless readers. Best ignored.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 15:22
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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I guess airport security in Egypt isn't up to western standards and you could bribe couple of people if you had enough money (which ISIS has)
Bribing may not be a requirement, there's a fair amount of adherents to the cause in the region.

Sharm was listed as a high risk location from ISIS terrorism earlier this year. Russia has just started engaging with ISIS in Syria. Now, this is circumstantial, of course, in relation to the destruction of the Russian operated A321.

Lets wait and see what a trusted investigation reveals from the FDR/CVR.

Last edited by stuckgear; 31st Oct 2015 at 15:33.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 15:43
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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In all of these sorts of events, there's a rush from terrorist groups to claim it.

I mean, it could be, but they claim falsely all the time.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 15:47
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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NOTAM WARNING

Given the very emphatic NOTAM regarding the danger in the area why werent measures taken to detour the Airway tracks to keep traffic within Radar coverage?

The sudden and marked changes in flight condition due to the upset and possible structural failure at altitude are all more to do with some kind of catastrophic event.

Time will tell..but I suspect that NOTAM is somehow a relevant pointer even if geographically/altimetrically off the mark. That information might have been sourced from military intelligence apparatus.

As for those trying to incite panic stations no such military fall out will explode at the iron dude's dictate.That is no Syria.There are a number if nations in the vicinity of Sinai that will keep him in check.

Last edited by Vc10Tail; 31st Oct 2015 at 16:26. Reason: typos
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 15:58
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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SIF (ISIS affiliate) is claiming responsibility

As a rule of thumb, no such claim should be considered valid if issued more than 1-2 hours after the actual event, and/or after the news have propagated through mass media.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 16:05
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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Telegraph cites PPRuNe

13.17

According to the pilotsí online chatroom, Prune the pilot did report an engine malfunction. But at the same time pilots have also been warned of a potential terrorist threat in a Notice to Airmen:
SECURITY EGYPT, NORTHERN SINAI PENINSULA, POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION CONTENT: GERMANY ADVISES ALL GERMAN OPERATORS NOT TO PLAN AND CONDUCT FLIGHTS BELOW FL260 DUE TO HAZARDOUS SITUATION IN THE AIRSPACE OF EGYPT, REGION NORTHERN SINAI (FIR CAIRO). POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION OVERFLYING THIS AREA BELOW FL260 AND TAKE OFF / LANDING AT ALL AIRPORTS FROM DEDICATED ANTI-AVIATION AND GROUND TO GROUND WEAPONRY. OPERATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO TAKE POTENTIAL RISK INTO ACCOUNT IN THEIR RISK ASSESSMENT AND ROUTEING DECISION. AFFECTED AREA: AREA WITHIN N311400E322200 - N294000E324000 - N293000E345400 N312000E341200 - N311400E322200 EMERGENCY SITUATIONS: IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY.

Please all bear in mind that the media read this forum in an effort to fill column inches.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 16:22
  #77 (permalink)  
 
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It is foolish to rely on FR24, the sytem works by collecting data over the internet from amatuer ADSB receivers owned by enthusiasts and joining the dots. There are plenty of these stations in well populated areas but the chances of any reliable receiver data in the middle of an enormous desert are a tad slim.
@TAG

While the second part of your comment is correct, the Sinai is far from an "enormous desert". While FR24 appears to be blocked in Egypt, Beer Sheeva/Eilat/Aqaba are all within 100nm of LKP, and Tel Aviv is under 200nm, the effective range of such amateur ADS-B receivers. FR24 data over the Sinai is likely to be reasonably valid.

If you look at FR24 there are several a/c over the Sinai being tracked in real time with good data right now, along the same routing as was taken by the accident flight.

Last edited by andrasz; 31st Oct 2015 at 16:35.
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 16:25
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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I just seen the ambulances carrying the bodies

My report from Cairo , as driving in one of the main roads in Cairo I've seen not less than a 25 ambulances accompanied by police cars. I can confirm that some or all of the bodies are in Cairo now
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 16:26
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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Speculation about real stuff, please?

Hi, all. Frequent lurker here. There's always a lot of noise after an incident, most of which is unhelpful. Among the unhelpful: (a) news updates - that's what BBC is for; (b) wild-assed speculation - Islamist SAMs, really?; (c) outrageous but easily-disprovable statements - bodies in seats claimed but no site photos; and (d) complaints about speculative rumor mongering.

What I find to be helpful are FACTS/rumor-mongering that calls on the unique knowledge-base of the folks here. For example: (1) Any INSIDE info from the relevant ATC? (2) Rumors as to how long until the authorities release/leak the relevant data traces? (3) Friends w/knowledge in USN/IDF? (4) SPECIFIC engine & repair history to this SPECIFIC airplane (i.e., more than "significant tail strike"); (5) experiential info w/relevant investigational authorities (are they corruptible? competent?); (6) real-life data w/r/t speculation (i.e., if mucky fuel is suspected, experience w/relevant vendors & airports); (7) flaws of commonly-sourced data reports (i.e., Flight24's dependence on x, y, z sources; ACARS, etc.); and (8) rampant speculation based on FACTS.

I may have a different take, but I'd rather be accurate than first-to-post. Speculation that's based on second-hand reporting by non-industry journalists is not only totem-pole hearsay, but it's also almost invariably wrong.

Last edited by EnjoinThis; 31st Oct 2015 at 16:27. Reason: Decided calling them "muzzie MANPADs" was uncouth
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Old 31st Oct 2015, 16:36
  #80 (permalink)  
 
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For the experts..

FR24 shows climbing ar 30k feet, constant speed of 400 knots, than sudden spike in altitude with a speed dropping, 32k and 100 knots...that it does not look as a lack of coverage of FR24, it seems a real info, if was estrapolated it would not show sudden variations.

It can be explain?
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