BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

[PersonFromPorlock]

andrasz, only reliable part about explosion version I can guess is that there is no traces of missile damaging elements found on debris. So it's why Rosaviation denies Kolavia statement that "plane was damaged from outside".

A Russian government that was not entirely committed to truth-telling might want to depress speculation by its citizens that Russia's recent moves against ISIS had invited this result, though.

Probably, at this point, everybody is saying what serves them best.

[G-CPTN]

Statement that break-up is not attributable to pilot error or technical fault - would that include any possible structural 'problem'?

No reports of any explosive traces yet.

It will be interesting to know the results of the autopsies.

[mitrosft]

22/04

I think the marks are visible on all three photographs above.

Nevertheless this does seem to suggest something beyond a poorly affixed decal is going on.

Crack? Flex in the rudder cracking paint/decal? Weakness?

I know I' ll be shot down for saying this but this accident does not have the feel of terrorist attack/explosive on board but on some kind of structural or control issue.

missing HS on otherwise not too damaged tail section only adds to your version of structural/control issue ...

[gmorton]

Interesting reading on the Israeli Security Website (Shin Bet) under Terror Data and Trends, regarding 'high trajectory launchings from Gaza and the Sinai'- here's their september report:
https://www.shabak.gov.il/SiteCollec...r%202015en.pdf

Here's some information on the smuggling of arms circa 2010 in the Sinai area, sourced from the Israeli Security Agency here: 2010 Annual Summary ? Data and Trends in Terrorism

Throughout 2010, much weaponry has been smuggled into the Gaza Strip, to include many hundreds of standard rockets (the majority of these rockets extend to 20km and 40km), about a thousand mortar shells, dozens of AT missiles, tons of standard explosives, and tons of raw material for explosives production.

The smuggling route starting in Iran and passing through Sudan and Sinai continues to be a key element for Palestinian terror organizations. Iran plays a key role in assisting the Palestinian terror organizations and Hizballah to strengthen their military capabilities – it provides high quality weaponry; it funds training for military activists; and it directs terror activity through various Arab countries, especially Syria and Lebanon.

(Fell upon this site by chance- am totally impartial to political leanings...)

[roving]

Since the potential causes appear to have narrowed to a structural failure which caused the tail plane becoming detached or an explosion within the aircraft, which led the tail plane becoming detached, I wonder if I may be permitted to ask this?

Assuming as some have speculated, this tragedy was caused by a bomb placed in the aircraft by ISIS or its sympathisers, why did this terrorist organisation not claim responsibility for placing the bomb rather than making the claim that it had shot it down?

[oleostrut]

"missing HS on otherwise not too damaged tail section only adds to your version of structural/control issue ..."

The port HS is pictured in some available photos still attached to some tail structure. I haven't seen a pic of the starboard HS

[susier]

Quick note on 'external' meaning

Listening to BBC Radio four reporting on the statement from the airline that this incident was caused by 'external' sources or actions, I was given the impression that it was intended to mean 'external to the airline', as in, sources beyond their control and not, I'm assuming, related to the maintenance, or a failure, of the airframe itself.


I don't think it necessarily means they think it was caused by an external device, or somesuch meaning, as in a SAM or similar.


I think it meant 'something beyond their control'.


If any Russian speakers wish to comment perhaps on the subtleties of translation?

[Ian W]

Originally Posted by mitrosft

Someone posted a pic of A321 dated May 2015 in SSH showing possible crack/damage on lower part of rudder ...





http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/new...2cf6402f9f.jpg

I would not be too concerned about the paint job, except that it is an indication of a continual leak (skydrol?) from presumably somewhere in the rudder area internal to the airframe. Where else did that skydrol leak run to inside the airframe and over more than a year; runs of leaking fluid can be surprisingly long. As someone posted earlier this is particularly corrosive liquid I would think pooled inside a box structure in the hot sun it might cause a fair amount of damage. Any flexing in the fuselage could be exacerbated by the HS moving to neutralize that movement stressing it further in the same sense.

[andrasz]

Originally Posted by roving

why did this terrorist organisation not claim responsibility for placing the bomb rather than making the claim that it had shot it down?

Precisely... This is why the bomb theory is less likely at present. An internal explosion leaves many and fairly obvious traces (both on wreckage and bodies) so if that were the case, we would probably know by now.

Originally Posted by oleostrut

The port HS is pictured in some available photos

No it is not. Beaten to death, that photo was of the 2014 August An-12 crash in Algeria.

[Machinbird]

"Missing" Aft Fuselage

Just a theory at this point and I'm not seeing all the ground scars I would expect however here goes:

Once an aircraft loses its tail, it initially wants to tumble forward which can tear loose already torn portions of the fuselage near the original failure. That would likely account for strips of fuselage found in the desert in recent pictures, but it would take a prolonged time at high airspeed to shred the entire aft fuselage. This aircraft decelerated rapidly.

This aircraft hit in a flat inverted attitude. This may just be chance, however if the aircraft began an inverted flat spin it would greatly increase the probability of hitting in this attitude. If you look at the fuselage wreckage aerial pictures, the fuselage is bent in a V shape. I suspect that the wing had so much rotational inertia that it tore the wing box loose from the fuselage structure below it at impact and continued rotating and also translating aft due to the Left wing generating more purchase on the ground than the right wing. (remember that the aircraft is inverted when assigning right and left. The V in the fuselage debris was likely caused by the rotational momentum as well. The aircraft would have been rotating (counterclockwise as viewed from above) around its (new) center of gravity.

So the remainder of the missing aft fuselage is probably sitting under the wing which is no longer in its original position relative to the fuselage.

[susier]

Thank you, Kulverstukas

[Kulverstukas]

Quote:


Originally Posted by roving

why did this terrorist organisation not claim responsibility for placing the bomb rather than making the claim that it had shot it down?

Precisely... This is why the bomb theory is less likely at present. An internal explosion leaves many and fairly obvious traces (both on wreckage and bodies) so if that were the case, we would probably know by now.

Was there any immediate claim in the Lockerbie case?

[22/04]

If the skydrol leak was long term would this need topping up- where would you top it up and where would top up spillage go?

(The engineer on our little aeroplanes has put a notice in the hangar that says "do not oil the battery").

And why wasn't it fixed? I haven't seen this on any Airbus 3xx that I have come across in the UK or India so it isn't a common thing is it?

[andrasz]

Was there any immediate claim in the Lockerbie case?

No there wasn't, I was wondering when someone will ask this. However that was a case of state-sponsored terrorism. The potential culprits in this case have nothing to gain and all to lose by keeping silent.

[Pontius Navigator]

K, Lockerbie State sponsored terrorism with a known vulnerable target had they claimed responsibility.

Modern organized terrorists have a different agenda.

[oldchina]

an update on who's in town ...

A second team of three BEA investigators has left today for Egypt to strengthen the team that arrived on Sunday November 1st.

[A first team, consisting of two BEA Safety Investigators, accompanied by six technical advisers from Airbus, will leave for Egypt tomorrow ( i.e.Sunday 1st November). The team will be joined by two Safety Investigators from the German BFU, as well as four Safety Investigators from the MAK.]

[Simplythebeast]

Sky News have decided to change the Airline's comment from "External actions", (which could of course mean caused by someone or something external to the organisation), to "External Impact".
How I hate those idiots.

[DaveReidUK]

some slightly amended notes on ADS-B

Originally Posted by clearedtocross

Short messages mean data condensed to the minimum. Thus e.g a timestamp in not included as it is meaningless in real time navigation. Anything else than 3d-position, 3d-vector and aircraft id is not repeated in the standard broadcast.

Good summary of ADS-B. But just to clarify "3d-position, 3d-vector and aircraft ID" are all sent in separate broadcasts as they can't all be accommodated in a single 56-bit packet.

That's one of the reasons, of course, why FR24 data has to be treated with caution as it populates data items that aren't in any given packet with stale values from a previous transmission.

[just another jocky]

Just seen this thread quoted on BBC News with a picture of the forum page.

[metro301]

Yes, honesty is a hallmark of ISIS.....

Maybe they are taking time to edit some videos. Maybe they want people to be confused. Who knows.....

Lacking a claim of responsibility is hardly an indicator they did not do it. What of the other 10 dozen or so like minded outfits in the area?

Until the Russians or a European agency comes out and says there was no explosive residue, it is still the most likely cause.