WSJ article: On Asia’s flights, potentially dangerous mistakes go unreported
Um, no. The coroner's report stated that the passenger who was unfortunately struck by the fire truck was in fact already deceased. Regardless, she'd never have been in a position to be struck - nor would the fire truck have been there - had someone remembered how to fly their airplane.
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EWM at dash 7,would be worth a second reading. Substituting Asia with the country you are flying in,and thinking again. Safe is never a possible situation,and never a battle that has been won. Just an ongoing fight,to find ways to do things better.
Last edited by Naali; 18th Jul 2015 at 02:26.
small sample statistics
With major events being as rare as they are in NA/WEU/AU, the outcome of those events has to be considered small sample statistics. Keep that in mind when you judge by the number of lives lost. That simply doesn't say anything about air safety. As others have pointed out, there were plenty of incidents and accidents in NA over this time period where it was down to pure luck nobody died.
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With major events being as rare as they are in NA/WEU/AU, the outcome of those events has to be considered small sample statistics. Keep that in mind when you judge by the number of lives lost. That simply doesn't say anything about air safety. As others have pointed out, there were plenty of incidents and accidents in NA over this time period where it was down to pure luck nobody died.
You must be joking.
It speaks volumes about air safety.
Number of flights are up hugely in the past couple of decades and fatal accidents are way down.
Does that qualify as small sample statistics?
To me it points to very conclusive statistics.
You must be joking.
It speaks volumes about air safety.
Number of flights are up hugely in the past couple of decades and fatal accidents are way down.
Does that qualify as small sample statistics?
To me it points to very conclusive statistics.
Maybe the paucity of accidents in Asia is a reflection of the more widespread use of automation by Asian flight crews.
In effect, we are getting first hand experience operating a near fully automated air transport system and it is working astonishingly well.
Seen in that light, P2F makes a lot more sense, it is 'rent seeking' people aspiring to an annuity that has a high entry barrier.
In effect, we are getting first hand experience operating a near fully automated air transport system and it is working astonishingly well.
Seen in that light, P2F makes a lot more sense, it is 'rent seeking' people aspiring to an annuity that has a high entry barrier.
@MrDK, yes, jet transport accidents are all small sample statistics, fortunately. I agree with you it says something about air safety, namely that it got a lot safer since the 1960's. Also, that part of the statistics where you look at how many accidents occur per million departures, is obviously NOT small sample statistics. But anything to do with the accidents themselves, is.
Since about 2000, the statistical sampling is simply insufficient to provide trend information, and the occurrence of accidents takes on the stochastic character of randomness.
Look at page 18 in this report: http://www.boeing.com/resources/boei...df/statsum.pdf
NOTE: these numbers take the increasing traffic into account, i.e. these are accident rates per million departures.
You can see that from 2000 onwards, just about the only information that can be deduced from those numbers is that the accident rate over several years in the US is non-zero. For the rest of the world, it is still higher than in the US initially, and that's where a trend can be seen, but from 2009 onwards, it appears to have reached similar levels as in the US.
Extending from this to taking lives lost in an accident as a safety indicator is misleading at best. You cannot take lives lost as a safety indicator when such small numbers of accidents are occuring, as the outcome will be random.
Since about 2000, the statistical sampling is simply insufficient to provide trend information, and the occurrence of accidents takes on the stochastic character of randomness.
Look at page 18 in this report: http://www.boeing.com/resources/boei...df/statsum.pdf
NOTE: these numbers take the increasing traffic into account, i.e. these are accident rates per million departures.
You can see that from 2000 onwards, just about the only information that can be deduced from those numbers is that the accident rate over several years in the US is non-zero. For the rest of the world, it is still higher than in the US initially, and that's where a trend can be seen, but from 2009 onwards, it appears to have reached similar levels as in the US.
Extending from this to taking lives lost in an accident as a safety indicator is misleading at best. You cannot take lives lost as a safety indicator when such small numbers of accidents are occuring, as the outcome will be random.
Last edited by physicus; 19th Jul 2015 at 03:50.
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Uhhh, the thread is based on a news article exclusively about safety problems that ate specific o a certain region. The thread was already there when the OP hit "post".
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IN an age whee "commuters" are flying aircraft heavier than, and with more seats than the early "mainline" DC-9's, between fairly large cities like Denver and St Louis, (just for example) the "mainline"-"commuter" distinction has become pretty much meaningless.
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When we read about statistics in public media and in highest level works too, it is very seldom that the distribution law is refered to.
Pure nonsense for the whole work.
If random is refered to in such works, we see another mistake in stats'use : non only we suppose without demonstration that the distribution is Gaussian , but the number of similar observations is often to low.
Everyday I'm angry listening on radio/TV the met forecast, ie :"Temperature is 5°c lower than normal (Gaussian) in that season " (temperature and season undefined and shifting everyday...).
Trusting in stats applied in respect of the stats'rules, I understand the stats'bashing but false "you may let stats say everything you want".
Pure nonsense for the whole work.
If random is refered to in such works, we see another mistake in stats'use : non only we suppose without demonstration that the distribution is Gaussian , but the number of similar observations is often to low.
Everyday I'm angry listening on radio/TV the met forecast, ie :"Temperature is 5°c lower than normal (Gaussian) in that season " (temperature and season undefined and shifting everyday...).
Trusting in stats applied in respect of the stats'rules, I understand the stats'bashing but false "you may let stats say everything you want".
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I think PPRune history shows there is no point in inferring U.S. manufactured aircraft, politics, safety or companies are in any way inferior to anything else in the world (probably the universe as well). These guys don't and won't listen to any argument listen, no matter what the facts are. Maybe it's ignorance. Maybe it's insecurity. Who knows.
But moving on... as has been pointed out earlier, the punitive culture of these countries means that anything potentially detrimental to a person, organisation or system will get buried and wholly denied. There will have to be thousands of deaths before an amazing discovery will found locally. I'll even predict that it will look like a just culture; one where the messenger does not always get shot. Until then, just hope they don't take out anybody you care about.
While I'm here I'll also suggest that a lack of union strength makes Eastern operations less transparent than Western ones. When an operation is only comprised of a bunch of individuals then very few will stick their heads above the parapet. Remember that in Britain it took nearly 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution for unions to be decriminalised. This part of the world has a few years to go yet.
PM
But moving on... as has been pointed out earlier, the punitive culture of these countries means that anything potentially detrimental to a person, organisation or system will get buried and wholly denied. There will have to be thousands of deaths before an amazing discovery will found locally. I'll even predict that it will look like a just culture; one where the messenger does not always get shot. Until then, just hope they don't take out anybody you care about.
While I'm here I'll also suggest that a lack of union strength makes Eastern operations less transparent than Western ones. When an operation is only comprised of a bunch of individuals then very few will stick their heads above the parapet. Remember that in Britain it took nearly 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution for unions to be decriminalised. This part of the world has a few years to go yet.
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I live in the Bay Area and the Asiana crash was big news for us here.
The young lady was killed by the truck, she was ALIVE when she was run over.
Your info is incorrect.
quote from J.O.
Um, no. The coroner's report stated that the passenger who was unfortunately struck by the fire truck was in fact already deceased. Regardless, she'd never have been in a position to be struck - nor would the fire truck have been there - had someone remembered how to fly their airplane.
unquote
Coroner: Asiana Flight 214 victim killed by fire truck, not plane crash - NBC News
There is little doubt though that the crew totally messed up the approach. They couldn't handle a visual in good weather and daylight. Weren't "trained" to be able to. And/or didn't fully understand the workings of the 777.
The young lady was killed by the truck, she was ALIVE when she was run over.
Your info is incorrect.
quote from J.O.
Um, no. The coroner's report stated that the passenger who was unfortunately struck by the fire truck was in fact already deceased. Regardless, she'd never have been in a position to be struck - nor would the fire truck have been there - had someone remembered how to fly their airplane.
unquote
Coroner: Asiana Flight 214 victim killed by fire truck, not plane crash - NBC News
There is little doubt though that the crew totally messed up the approach. They couldn't handle a visual in good weather and daylight. Weren't "trained" to be able to. And/or didn't fully understand the workings of the 777.
Last edited by armchairpilot94116; 19th Jul 2015 at 16:50. Reason: addition
