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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:04
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WhisprSYD
possibly pushing into 130kts of headwind.
He was over the equator +/-. Let's keep the discussion sensible. Have a look at NAIPS for the current jetstreams over the area...
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:10
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Air Asia says missing jet asked to 'deviate' due to weather - Channel NewsAsia

JAKARTA: Air Asia said the pilot of flight QZ8501 that went missing between Indonesia and Singapore early Sunday (Dec 28) had requested "deviation" from the its flight plan because of bad weather.

"The aircraft ... was requesting deviation due to enroute weather," the Malaysia-based carrier said in a statement posted on its Facebook page.

"Communication with the aircraft was lost while it was still under the control of the Indonesian Air Traffic Control (ATC)."

UPDATED STATEMENT FROM AIRASIA AT 1.23PM:

"AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that flight QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact with air traffic control at 7.24 (Surabaya LT) this morning. The flight took off from Juanda International Airport in Surabaya at 5.35am

90"The aircraft was an Airbus A320-200 with the registration number PK-AXC. There were two pilots, four flight attendants and one engineer on board.The captain in command had a total of 6,100 flying hours and the first officer a total of 2,275 flying hours
"There were 155 passengers on board, with 138 adults, 16 children and 1 infant. Also on board were 2 pilots and 5 cabin crew.

"Nationalities of passengers and crew onboard are as below:
1 Singapore
1 Malaysia
1 France
3 South Korean
156 Indonesia

"At this time, search and rescue operations are being conducted under the guidance of The Indonesia of Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). AirAsia Indonesia is cooperating fully and assisting the investigation in every possible way.

"The aircraft was on the submitted flight plan route and was requesting deviation due to enroute weather before communication with the aircraft was lost while it was still under the control of the Indonesian Air Traffic Control (ATC).

"The aircraft had undergone its last scheduled maintenance on 16 November 2014. AirAsia has established an Emergency Call Centre that is available for family or friends of those who may have been on board the aircraft. The number is: +622129850801.

"AirAsia will release further information as soon as it becomes available. Updated information will also be posted on the AirAsia website, www.airasia.com."

- AFP/CNA/by
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:17
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Old King Coal
Wrt the suggestion that they asked to climb in order to avoid 'clouds'.

Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm.

Even if there is no cloud above a Cb, that should not be taken to infer that the air above the Cb is free from severe turbulence, and all that climbing would do is put one even closer into coffin-corner, at a time when (if sever turbulence occurs) one needs as much airspeed margin as possible.
Too true...

I've flown with many F/Os who suggest 'we' climb to avoid a CB... That's not happening on my flight! A good speed margin is vital in severe/extreme turbulence!
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:25
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY.
And not before time.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:26
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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According to the Jakarta Post...

National Search and Rescue Agency spokesman now giving the crash site as 3 degrees 22'46" S, 108 degrees 50' 07" E, or about 145 km E of Belitung.

AirAsia plane downed in Belitung waters: Reports | The Jakarta Post
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:29
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CISTRS View Post
Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY.
And not before time.
Even if this was in place today, there is no guarantee that the signal could have got through anyway. Satellite communications are OFTEN disrupted by weather, especially heavy weather.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:30
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY.
And not before time.
Let's not confuse the issue here. This isn't MH370. The AirAsia flight was actively being tracked both on primary radar and via ADS-B. And the plane was communicating with ATC just 1 minute before contact was lost.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:47
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Once again, we rely on outdated technology. No ELT transmissions received. This will only increase the pressure for industry wide deployment of REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY.
And not before time.
Pray tell, how would this "REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY" work during and after an inflight breakup? And many lives would this save again?
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:47
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:47
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Does Indonesia Air Asia use "Pay to Fly" First Officers to crew their aircraft?

For those unfamiliar: Pay to fly means that the second in command aboard a jetliner PAYS between 20.000 and 50.000. $ to have the "priveledge" to fly as a copilot onboard commercial passenger and cargo flights.

Some Asian companies now even do "pay to upgrade" where you BUY your Captain position...

Maybe CNN should report on THAT...
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:48
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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talking about AF and freezing pitoTT tubes
Not beyond the realms of possibility...

Climbing (apparently 4k plus above planned), slow (353 is ~ M0.6 at 36k ignoring wind), and end up in the ocean.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:48
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Load and trim sheet shows 1258 kg. It's quite low for Pax=158.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:52
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Phoenix_ View Post
Load and trim sheet shows 1258 kg. It's quite low for Pax=158.
for baggage..


Air Asia passengers often have more carryon than checked in baggage.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:54
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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looking at the radar plot available on a previous page, it appears he was about mid-flight...it never ceased to amaze me in my time on the 'Bus or Boeing, how many people were keen to climb high into thin air in an attempt to be clear of weather...
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 07:02
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Air Asia passengers often have more carryon than checked in baggage.
...i don't see cargo added in TOW of 63624 kg, then only 8kg of carryon average per passenger

Last edited by _Phoenix_; 28th Dec 2014 at 07:34. Reason: correction
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 07:02
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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http://jansaviation.com/files/QZ8501-LoadTrim.pdf

fuel looks about right for one-way trip..
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 07:06
  #57 (permalink)  
ekw
 
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Severe turbulence inducing slow speed stall? Loss of spatial awareness resulting in excessive control inputs and possible loss of a control surface? No further communication due to extreme stress and physical forces?
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 07:12
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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formulaben
Pray tell, how would this "REAL TIME FLIGHT DATA TELEMETRY" work during and after an inflight breakup? And many lives would this save again?
It wouldn't help there and then but the last few minutes of data would give you a bloody good idea as to what the 'holes in the Swiss cheese' were and therefore where to deploy SAR assets.

Indirectly (culturally) the system would 'save' lives in the future by identifying the threats and errors that contributed - that's if they were appropriately managed. (and to tack on my two cents - if an airline's objectives focussed on managing those threats by 'clear and true' implementation of a safety oriented culture that isn't bounced by commercial priority)

Last edited by m-dot; 28th Dec 2014 at 07:31.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 07:19
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not sure that real time would greatly increase safety. The only advantage of the expediency in viewing the data would be in SAR.

Otherwise, it isn't like a dispatcher will be monitoring and able to send them an ACARS message saying "hey, watch your speed." Everything else, FOQA and related safety programs should help control.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 07:22
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Ground speed of 353 at FL363.

Unlikely to have a 130 knot headwind in the tropics.

Airspeed/Mach No, very slow.
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