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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 28th Dec 2014, 04:57
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Very harrowing watching the TV link.

The A/C went missing just after dawn local time, so SAR resources have maximum daylight.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 04:59
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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as you know, most big thunderstorms are in need of energy from the sun and form in the afternoon...BUT

if you have a thunderstorm in the early AM it may have quite a bit of energy. A HUGE AMOUNT of energy.

wondering if ELT signals have been received by SAR
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:09
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Unconfirmed report: down in sea

An unconfirmed report from Jakarta says that the aircraft is down in the sea near Belitung island.

http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2014...Belitung.Timur
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:09
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Indonesian FIR

But Singapore has dispatched two C-130s for SAR. I am confident they are much more capable than their Indonesian counterparts.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:14
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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http://www.reddit.com/live/u5bkiqteljl4

My goodness the radar pic is chilling.

https://twitter.com/thatjohn/status/...653889/photo/1
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:18
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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From the radar plot submitted by training wheels, if the 353 is ground speed, it would be slower than expected at FL363.

See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.

An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:25
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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A thunderstorm like that you can go from FL320 to FL 360 very quickly .
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:28
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Updated Statement by Air Asia

Non-facebook link of statement
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:32
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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@SATCO

You can't trust the ADS-B data from flight trackers.

Local ATC reported that due to weather, QZ8501 requested to deviate left of the M635 airway and climb from FL320 to FL380.

There's good civilian and military radar coverage in the area as there's a regional airport at Belitung Island.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:34
  #30 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SATCO View Post
It was nowhere near FL360, it had established and was maintaining FL320
Local news reports saying that the last communication with ATC was a request to climb to FL340.

The last communication between QZ8501's pilot and air traffic control was when he requested to increase his altitude to 34,000 feet due to bad weather, Indonesia's Metro TV reported.

Read more: AirAsia flight from Indonesia to Singapore with 162 people on board loses contact with air traffic control minutes after asking to take an 'unusual' flightpath | Daily Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:39
  #31 (permalink)  

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as you know, most big thunderstorms are in need of energy from the sun and form in the afternoon
Numerous, frequent even, evening thunderstorms during my 20 years in the tropics.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:40
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Wreckage reportedly been found.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:51
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Wrt the suggestion that they asked to climb in order to avoid 'clouds'.

Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm.

Even if there is no cloud above a Cb, that should not be taken to infer that the air above the Cb is free from severe turbulence, and all that climbing would do is put one even closer into coffin-corner, at a time when (if sever turbulence occurs) one needs as much airspeed margin as possible.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:53
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Given that turbulence penetration speed for the A320 is 275kias, giving a TAS at FL340 of about 460kts, and the forecast winds were WSW, if that 360kt GS is accurate it is way too slow.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:54
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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"Ichiban:

From the radar plot submitted by training wheels, if the 353 is ground speed, it would be slower than expected at FL363.

See the nearby Emirates 777, UAE 409, MEL-KUL. The 777 is at FL360 with a ground speed of 503 knots.

An A320 is not 150 knots slower than a B777."

Yeah a fair bit slower than expected.. but still not impossible when you consider that they may have been hitting best rate of climb to try and clear the weather and possibly pushing into 130kts of headwind.
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:56
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Link to the Load and Trim sheet, found on Reddit.

http://jansaviation.com/files/QZ8501-LoadTrim.pdf

Last edited by KrispyKreme; 28th Dec 2014 at 05:56. Reason: link update
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:57
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Ichiban,

If the aircraft was in fact climbing the LOWER airspeed would make sense to some extent. It's also possible the pilot reduced speed due to expected turbulence in CB. Finally if you have reduced IAS and you are climbing you would have a reduced margin above the stall in clean configuration. This can be a trap in extreme turbulence where IAS fluctuates wildly.

Now I am not speculating at all just answering Ichiban,s question about the reduced speed.

Groggy
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 05:58
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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From Indonesia National SAR official briefing:

(all times local)

05:36 QZ8501 departed Juanda airport, Surabaya

06:12 Contacts Jakarta center 125.70 at FL320, requests weather deviation left of M635 airway and climb to FL380

06:16 QZ8501 still observed on radar

06:17 Radar contact lost. Radio contact lost. Only ADS-B signal remained.

06:18 All contact lost. Only flight plan view on radar screen.

07:08 ATC declares INCERFA (aircraft position uncertain)

07:28 ATC declares ALERTFA (emergency alert)

07:55 ATC declares DETRESFA (emergency distress)
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:02
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Shades of MAS370....that INCERFA would have been declared by 06:26 in any western country
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Old 28th Dec 2014, 06:02
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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OLD KING C

"Imho, it's a very foolish thing to try and out-climb a thunderstorm."

Very well said, mate!

You simply cannot out climb them, I've seen some with tops at FL500 on the tropics.
Secondly you put the acft very close to the flight envelope limits if you climb 2,000 or more above the optimum, so any turbulence will put you on a high or slow speed stall. It's a very marginal situation.
Best way to avoid weather: steer away!
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