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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 22nd Jan 2015, 01:55
  #2341 (permalink)  
 
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Certainly I am aware of colleagues who have done so [turned around]
And I imagine you may have ex-colleagues who failed to do so...
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 02:16
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lonewolf and ranamin

22 years ago I got into a huge argument with an MIT professor regarding airbus type aircraft...he told me point blank that skilled pilots would no longer be required and that someone with 300 hours could do the job.

I asked him what happens when the gadgets stop working and bad things are happening...he said it wouldn't happen.

OH YEAH?
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 02:42
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180 degrees

I always followed that 180 degree turn is easiest maneuver to make.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 03:14
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Naali
I suspect that the sauna is turned up too high and that löyly emanating from it contains a banned substance. Or perhaps you are using the Tibetan version of Google Translate. However, they were very nice sentiments, thank you.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 03:18
  #2345 (permalink)  
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According to Detik.com, this data plot was received by a reporter from someone in the Department of Transportation. The plot shows the climb from FL320 at time 23:17:1.7889 to FL373.5 at time 23:17:43.210 (ie a climb of 5350 ft in about 41.4 seconds) with a turn to the left. End of detection was at FL240 at time 23:19:46.352 in what looks to be a spiral or spin?



Source: Detik.com
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 03:26
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"thru all my career, from PPL to Comm to ATP, 17000hrs (retired) Capt B737, I was always taught about weather "AVOIDANCE", but the norm nowadays seems to be for weather "PENETRATION" albeit in the "least return areas" of the WX Radar.
Irrespective of Boeing or Airbus, it is the duty of all airline Captains to deliver his passengers safely at destination, and that means "AVOIDING" the weather, rather than punching into weather, and hope to find the smoothest path thru, then do so.
The passengers didn't sign up for a "test of the pilots skills" or for a ride with the the most brave and daring Captain, and it is thus not our place to give them the ride of their lives, but rather a smooth uneventfull ride, where the only complaints are about the lack of bubbles in the champagne in business class.

Before I retired, in my company there were Captains, who's level of bravery exceeded mine, when it comes to weather penetration vs weather avoidance, and minimum fuel uplift, thus no options but to barge on straight ahead.
I am glad that I made it to the "old pilot" phase beyond the "bold pilot" phase, and now I can sit comfortably at home trying to make sense of this lot."



Very well put!
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 03:42
  #2347 (permalink)  
 
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TRANSPONDER data, which is fed from the Air Data Computer (ADC), which is fed from the Pitot-Static (P-S) system. Any P-S error -- whether from icing or other causes -- will therefore be reflected in the "radar" plot.
That's only marginally true. The majority of data in the transponder message comes from one of the ADIRU units which combine inertial sensors with GPS. In particular the altitude and geographical location are entirely digital.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 03:46
  #2348 (permalink)  
 
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If that data surveillance chart is correct it explains clearly what happened in one easy glance. The why is another matter of course.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 04:24
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I've never retold this, and it's not relevant to 'modern' airlines but it's an interesting tale about CB's and was told this as a warning as to what even a tiddler can do.

Early '60's DC-3 flying Nadi-Suva for a well known airline. The person who relayed this was doing his Command under a well respected SCC. A growing Cu/CB was in the way. The comment from the SCC was 'let me show you how good the A/P is!' It was plugged in and they sauntered into the thing.

It was almost impossible to even see any instruments. And yes they belted up 'tight' before impact. The noise was deafening. It lasted about 2-3 minutes. The crashing of broken cabin bits lasted a LOT longer than cloud. The initial cruise was at 5-6000'. When they popped out they were around 9000 climbing at (guessing) 5-6000fpm with the nose at -15deg.

Every single thing in the cabin was broken and took weeks to repair. Everyone had been violently ill, vomit covered the cabin as did the limited food and alcohol on board.

The SCC just said 'I told you it could do it!'

I was told to never, ever go near a bubbly cloud in anything. It was a very poignant description of something that just should never be done. Even IF the DC-3 could cope with it...
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 05:41
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CB avoidance.

If it really is CB penetration that comes out as one of the causes of this crash , then lots of lessons to learn for pilots today that are age old as aviation itself.

Luckily , at our airline , I've never been questioned for the many times I have delayed departure, deplaned passengers or diverted back to departure due to CB related weather affecting departure/destination airports. It's a call that pilots need to take and the last thing you need to have to think about is what the company thinks about it.

Fly safe.

Masalama.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 06:01
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Thuderstorm Frequecny Worldwide

Worldwide thuderstorms frequency map may of interest:


thunderstorm: worldwide frequency | Encyclopedia Britannica

Bad luck?
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 06:22
  #2352 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ranamin
Re-introduce airmanship into the flight deck.Now.Simple airmanship would have told them that you never flirt with bad weather,you never avoid storms vertically,and you never ever wait for an ATC clearance to save the lives of you and your passengers.Speed margin is essential.Todays pilots flying near/in storm cells at FL410 should be shot.Go too close to a storm and you had better be at opt alt minus 4k with speed halfway between barber pole and min maneuver.That will give you a chance.A fighting chance.
I know that the "Airbus factor" will come into this one and it will be interesting to see just how the Airbus design philosophy helped or hindered the pilot and whether or not the investigators will call a spade a shovel even with the French there in force.
Spot on regarding airmanship. Spot on too regarding shooting the fools who try to bash around or above these things at FL410. I like a 50 knot margin minimum if I'm going anywhere near the ITCZ...

Waiting for ATC clearances can be an issue for some too. I remember taking off from Chennai from 07. In a 330 the radar can't look behind, and as we climbed up through the cloud turning left I could see a monstrous wall of a CB. I told ATC we ARE NOT following our departure routing. We ended up taking a good 80NM plus diversion...

As for the 'Airbus Factor'; it's still an aeroplane and subject to all of the force that nature can throw at it and basic airmanship is still required!
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 06:53
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he told me point blank that skilled pilots would no longer be required and that someone with 300 hours could do the job.

I asked him what happens when the gadgets stop working and bad things are happening...he said it wouldn't happen.
seems they succeeded when the gadgets are working

As for the 'Airbus Factor'; it's still an aeroplane and subject to all of the force that nature can throw at it and basic airmanship is still required!
seems they failed to realize that an even more skilled pilot would be required when the gadgets failed...

Last edited by chefrp; 22nd Jan 2015 at 07:18.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 06:54
  #2354 (permalink)  
 
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thru all my career, from PPL to Comm to ATP, 17000hrs (retired) Capt B737, I was always taught about weather "AVOIDANCE", but the norm nowadays seems to be for weather "PENETRATION" albeit in the "least return areas" of the WX Radar.
Irrespective of Boeing or Airbus, it is the duty of all airline Captains to deliver his passengers safely at destination, and that means "AVOIDING" the weather, rather than punching into weather, and hope to find the smoothest path thru, then do so.
The passengers didn't sign up for a "test of the pilots skills" or for a ride with the the most brave and daring Captain, and it is thus not our place to give them the ride of their lives, but rather a smooth uneventfull ride, where the only complaints are about the lack of bubbles in the champagne in business class.

Before I retired, in my company there were Captains, who's level of bravery exceeded mine, when it comes to weather penetration vs weather avoidance, and minimum fuel uplift, thus no options but to barge on straight ahead.
I am glad that I made it to the "old pilot" phase beyond the "bold pilot" phase, and now I can sit comfortably at home trying to make sense of this lot.
This post by Romeo E.T., outlines the concern raised many years ago by air safety people in BASI (Aust) - the difference in approach to driving between those who receive all their early training in a military environment, and in jet fighters - and those who receive all their early training in a 100% civilian environment.

The basic approach used by military training is aggression, "punch through at all costs", "the aim is to win, no matter what", and to take every risk possible, to achieve the targetted outcome.

In a 100% civilian busdriver training environment, the stated or implied aim is to "take no risks", "turn back before you get into trouble", "remember you have many lives in your hands".

It was raised as a point of serious discussion by BASI, that it is difficult to get someone who has been trained in a military/fighter jet environment to totally reverse all their training, all their thought patterns, their aims and objectives, to ones that are completely at odds with their initial and early aviation learning, when they convert to RPT flying.

Cap Iryanto had 6100 hours on the 320, and over 20,500 hrs in total - but how many hours of those important early hours were on F-16's and F-5E's, in the 10 years he was in the military?

In this case, I wonder if Capt Iryanto was reverting to his basic fighter pilot training in attempting to punch through what was obviously a very dangerous CB?
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 07:07
  #2355 (permalink)  
 
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If that data surveillance chart is correct it explains clearly what happened in one easy glance.
On the contrary, it doesn't tell us anything at all about what happened after the aircraft descended below FL240.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 07:18
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"I wonder if Capt Iryanto was reverting to his basic fighter pilot training in attempting to punch through what was obviously a very dangerous CB?"

A poor deduction. If you have flown around pulling up to 9G you are even more conscious of how flimsy an airliner is. And it doesn't even have an ejection seat.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 07:33
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... thinking spiral dive and overspeed 'may' now be equal likelihood
to that of stall.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 07:42
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Dave

The a/c hit the water at 3.623S and 109.712E. The coordinates at FL240 are approx 3.615S and 109.695E. The two coordinates are within 1nm. Rate of descent from FL370 to FL240 approx 6-6,500ft per minute. This data certainly tells me something about what happened.
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 07:53
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So what does it tell you?
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Old 22nd Jan 2015, 08:20
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BTW 6,500 ft/min = 64.18knt (73.86mph)
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