Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Flight Deck Forums > Rumours & News
Reload this Page >

Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Rumours & News Reporting Points that may affect our jobs or lives as professional pilots. Also, items that may be of interest to professional pilots.

Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 2nd Mar 2015, 05:19
  #11641 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Frankfurt
Age: 69
Posts: 36
Is the point of the excercise that they will make ADSC subscription compulsory in the relevant airspaces?
DrPhillipa is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2015, 07:31
  #11642 (permalink)  
thf
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: living room
Posts: 40
That's it?

Reuters: Australia says hunt for missing MH370 jet may be called off soon

(Reuters) - The search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 cannot go on forever, Australia's deputy prime minister said, and discussions are already under way between Australia, China and Malaysia as to whether to call off the hunt within weeks. (...)

The search of a rugged 60,000 sq km (23,000 sq mile) patch of sea floor some 1,600 km (1,000 miles) west of the Australian city of Perth, which experts believe is the plane's most likely resting place, will likely be finished by May.

Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss told Reuters that a decision would have to be taken well before then as to whether to continue into the vast 1.1 million sq km area around the primary search zone if nothing has been found.

Discussions had already begun about what to do in that event, including the possibility that the search might be called off, said Truss, who is also transport minister.
thf is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2015, 10:17
  #11643 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 52
Posts: 809
Discussions and possibility are the key words. All very prudent to reevaluate the data instead of just continuing to spend money.

Mind you I suppose the scientific community wouldn't mind a complete hi resolution map of the Indian ocean
rh200 is offline  
Old 3rd Mar 2015, 21:43
  #11644 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Geneva, Switzerland
Age: 50
Posts: 1,405
Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Somewhat off topic but do we have robotic technology to perform that mapping task? Or is it a tedious manned operation?
atakacs is online now  
Old 3rd Mar 2015, 23:03
  #11645 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NNW of Antipodes
Age: 76
Posts: 1,331
@atakacs

The following link will give you a good insight into how the mapping operation has been undertaken.

'Mapping the deep ocean: Geoscience Australia and the search for MH370'
mm43 is offline  
Old 4th Mar 2015, 01:55
  #11646 (permalink)  
Pegase Driver
 
Join Date: May 1997
Location: Europe
Age: 69
Posts: 2,614
DrPhillipa

Is the point of the excercise that they will make ADSC subscription compulsory in the relevant airspaces?
No the point of this perticular trial is to assess the load on the ATC system if the interrogation rate is increased to every 15 min instead of 20-30.
Nothing to do with MH370, and , as said previously , it would not have changed anything if the rate had been 15 min at the time.
ATC Watcher is offline  
Old 4th Mar 2015, 12:22
  #11647 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida and wherever my laptop is
Posts: 1,297
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
No the point of this perticular trial is to assess the load on the ATC system if the interrogation rate is increased to every 15 min instead of 20-30.
Nothing to do with MH370, and , as said previously , it would not have changed anything if the rate had been 15 min at the time.
I don't see that there is any "load on the ATC system" If you want to fly one of the more popular tracks on the North Atlantic under the Reduced Longitudinal Separation Method, you will be reporting on ADS-C every 4 minutes.
BEA after AFR447 asked for reports as often as once every 1 minute.

Most carriers are now paying a fixed annual rate for ADS-C unlike the old days of pay per transmission. So there is no benefit by not using ADS-C. If the Air Traffic Service Provider in the airspace you are flying in does not use ADS-C you have up to 5 connections that can be made so contract with your FOC/Dispatch and they can track you.

Once you have a secure internet link to SITA/ARINC displaying and storing ADS-C positions is extremely simple.

Of course while this means that the regulators can say that they are "doing something" ADS-C update rate change would have no effect on a future MH370 scenario where the 'cooperative' / Active tracking devices are switched off.

Last edited by Ian W; 4th Mar 2015 at 12:33.
Ian W is offline  
Old 4th Mar 2015, 12:34
  #11648 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 60
Posts: 5,359
Searches cost money. There is not infinite budget for such a search.
Who would fund the continuing effort beyond point in time "X" is a pertinent question.
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 4th Mar 2015, 14:20
  #11649 (permalink)  
Pegase Driver
 
Join Date: May 1997
Location: Europe
Age: 69
Posts: 2,614
Ian W

I don't see that there is any "load on the ATC system" If you want to fly one of the more popular tracks on the North Atlantic [....] you will be reporting on ADS-C every 4 minutes.
My comment was not a speculation but a fact. The South Indian Ocean airpace is not the North Atlantic , and data link processing load is an issue for the Australian system, hence the trial.

Of course while this means that the regulators can say that they are "doing something" ADS-C update rate change would have no effect on a future MH370 scenario where the 'cooperative' / Active tracking devices are switched off.
There we agree 100%
ATC Watcher is offline  
Old 5th Mar 2015, 23:34
  #11650 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida and wherever my laptop is
Posts: 1,297
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
My comment was not a speculation but a fact. The South Indian Ocean airpace is not the North Atlantic , and data link processing load is an issue for the Australian system, hence the trial.

But ADS-C (Automatic Dependent Surveilance - Contract) is addressable SATCOM, with up to 5 contracts that can be held concurrently. So you could have a contract with any agency worldwide, including your own dispatch. ADS-C cannot overload the air traffic service provider of the airspace the aircraft is flying in, if they are contracted to receive the ADS-C they merely have to store the data - a short data message every 15 minutes.. The South Indian Ocean Airspace is indeed different to the North Atlantic. It is extremely sparsely flown whereas the North Atlantic is ~2000+ flights a day.
Ian W is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2015, 08:29
  #11651 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Posts: 556
After almost a year of highly professional & concentrated searching of the ocean to the west of Perth, so far without any sign at all, or any indication no matter how minor, that the 777 may be there. Can I suggest a couple of things please.
- Despite the vast majority of genuine experts, saying, this is where the aircraft is almost certainly to be found. Perhaps in fact this is not the case at all & before the search is scaled down or terminated, all other areas of interest should at least be checked.
- Are we absolutely sure the 777, once having recrossed Malaysia from east to west, did in fact fly south west & not anywhere to the north.

- Surely if the 777 is where most of the search agencies think it is, west of Perth, some even small part of the aircraft would have come to the ocean surface by now.
- I am still of the opinion, that certain people & or agencies from the missing aircraft's home country, may well have information that for whatever reason continues to be with held & so far not made public.

My thoughts only, but someone knows something out there & is so far not letting on.
kaikohe76 is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2015, 09:20
  #11652 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida and wherever my laptop is
Posts: 1,297
The Doppler tracing and tracking carried out by INMARSAT on the SATCOM signals plus validation testing against other aircraft would put the aircraft in the area being searched. It is not possible for the aircraft to have gone North and still provided the same Doppler signals. These calculations have also been checked by a considerable number of mathematicians.

There _is_ some discussion on the actual fuel burn that the aircraft could have made as it is thought to have made at least one low pass before flying South this could lead to an along track error that would have the aircraft crash/ditching site further North.
Ian W is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2015, 09:57
  #11653 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 52
Posts: 809
- Surely if the 777 is where most of the search agencies think it is, west of Perth, some even small part of the aircraft would have come to the ocean surface by now
40% is the figure I think you will find. Not sure if the search area is sub broken up with most likely spots, but if it isn't, and there's equal probability of it being any where in the area, then theres just as much chance of finding it on the final day as the first.

As for bits, awful big ocean and planet out there.
rh200 is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2015, 10:34
  #11654 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 66
Posts: 782
Ian W

The Doppler tracing and tracking carried out by INMARSAT on the SATCOM signals plus validation testing against other aircraft would put the aircraft in the area being searched. It is not possible for the aircraft to have gone North and still provided the same Doppler signals. These calculations have also been checked by a considerable number of mathematicians.
But that is only true for an aircraft which after last radar contact to the northwest turned south and flew then with constant altitude, speed and track , which are the assumptions and led to the present search area.


An aircraft maneuvering in altitude, speed and track could be anywhere on a position close to the south arc and to the north arc.


Under the above assumptions they search at the most probable positions, but those are not exclusive and might be off by thousands of miles.

Last edited by RetiredF4; 7th Mar 2015 at 10:47.
RetiredF4 is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2015, 19:57
  #11655 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Boston
Posts: 1
Hello. I have a request for more Inmarsat data.

I want to give my own calculations based on the BTO and BFO datapoints posted by Inmarsat a shot. As we know, some of the individual values make little sense. And the diagrams of how the data is collected contain some black boxes just saying "compensation", which could really mean anything. What kind of "compensation" has been done to the data before making a record? Is that reliable? Is that compensation that is predictable enough to undo to maybe correct errors? I imagine whoever programmed that system didn't have in mind that it would later be used to locate a plane based on less than a dozen datapoints and no other information.

What I would like to have is the same set of data for BTO and BFO as we have for MH370, but for a flight that proceeded normally (and hence we know where it actually was for any given value pair).

Is that available anywhere? Any random flight would do, but obviously it would be nice to have something that proceeded at about the same distance from the recording satellite.
Straw42 is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2015, 20:49
  #11656 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: In thin air
Posts: 186
Originally Posted by RetiredF4
An aircraft maneuvering in altitude, speed and track could be anywhere on a position close to the south arc and to the north arc.
Please explain how a position close to the north arc can be compatible with the logged values of BFO (Burst Frequency Offset or doppler compensation error).
Gysbreght is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2015, 22:31
  #11657 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 66
Posts: 782
Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredF4
An aircraft maneuvering in altitude, speed and track could be anywhere on a position close to the south arc and to the north arc.
Please explain how a position close to the north arc can be compatible with the logged values of BFO (Burst Frequency Offset or doppler compensation error).
I can't explain it to you, however others can.
As I understood it from discussions, a rapid descent or a rapid climb while over the data point would alter the data more than cruising north or south, as climbs would give closure to the satellite and descents would give opening to the satellite. If the aircraft was turning north and descending at the same time, the turn to south at the relevant data point would no longer be the only option, but to the north it would be possible too. Speed and track changes from one data point to the next would alter the present interpretation as well. There would be millions of pathes possible if all maneuvering options would be considered, as long as those pathes ended somewhere close to the northern or southern arc.

The present "only south it is" path is founded on a lot of assumptions and few facts, as would be a north path too. I'm not saying it was the wrong decision to search south, but it might have been flown to the north as well.
RetiredF4 is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2015, 00:11
  #11658 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida and wherever my laptop is
Posts: 1,297
There are not that many permutations with the aircraft out of fuel when it was. From my understanding the INMARSAT team did do comparison/validation with other aircraft flying in the area and that confirmed their view of what happened. The 'North' story doesn't fit the Doppler changes that were recorded. It is extremely unlikely that the person(s) flying MH370 were aware of the SATCOM tracking that could be done, therefore it is also extremely unlikely that they were spoofing the tracking.
Ian W is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2015, 08:25
  #11659 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: BE
Age: 58
Posts: 54
interim statement 8/3

http://mh370.mot.gov.my/download/InterimStatement.pdf

http://mh370.mot.gov.my/download/FactualInformation.pdf
D Bru is offline  
Old 8th Mar 2015, 08:32
  #11660 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 66
Posts: 782
A good summary of what has been used to choose the southern arc can be found here.

http://www.rin.org.uk/Uploadedpdfs/s...at%20Paper.pdf

Note please, that the following initial basics did not change throughout the whole process. Every refinement and the final conclusion are based on the asumptions of this initial reconstruction attempt. (bolding by me)

Initial flight path reconstruction attempts were based on the aircraft flying at a steady speed on a relatively constant track consistent with an aircraft operating without human control. It was initially thought that for the fuel to have lasted until 00:19 UTC the aircraft would have needed to be flying at high altitude, where the air is thinner and drag is reduced, which would have resulted in its flying at close to its maximum speed of just over 500 knots (926 kph). This gave two solutions, one in a northerly and the other in a southerly direction, as illustrated in Figure 6, where thered lines indicate the flight paths prior to 00:19 UTC and the green lines indicate the potential additional flight paths between the last signal at 00:19 UTC and the failure to respond to the LOI message sent by the GES at 01:15 UTC.
It is important to remember that these initial flight paths, while consistent with the BTO timing data and the aircraft performance, were based on a number of assumptions: that the aircraft travelled at a steady and high speed and did not make any manoeuvres beyond a turn to the north or south shortly after its last radar detection.



The changing BFO data caused by the wobbling of the Sattelite and the above assumptions led to the southern path. The sattelite moves north south with a maximum of 2,412 km per day which results in a comparable low BFO change opposed to a climb, descent or a speed change.

Read also on the Blog of Duncan Steel.
The Bottom Line: A northerly route for MH370 deep into central Asia cannot be excluded on the basis of the publicly-available Inmarsat-3F1 satellite data.
The Inmarsat-3F1 Doppler Data Do Not Exclude a Northerly Flight Path for MH370 | Duncan Steel
RetiredF4 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.