Is The Industry Turning Around And Desperate For Pilots Again?
Join Date: Oct 2003
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While I don't expect to see it repeated anytime soon, there most definitely has been a shortage in the past.
In the late 80's I was running a flying school in the UK and regularly getting cold calls from major airlines asking if I knew anyone who might be interested in being sponsored! They had to have the then required 700 hours and they were in.
And indeed they were parking up aircraft due to lack of crews. That has also happened more recently, but usually due to the airline management not planning far enough ahead to hire enough people.
In the late 80's I was running a flying school in the UK and regularly getting cold calls from major airlines asking if I knew anyone who might be interested in being sponsored! They had to have the then required 700 hours and they were in.
And indeed they were parking up aircraft due to lack of crews. That has also happened more recently, but usually due to the airline management not planning far enough ahead to hire enough people.
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I have been trying to get into a multi crew operator within the UK or overseas trying to get that first job whilst working on a AOC doing single pilot & single engine ops.
Write about 7 - 10 letters a day that I post and send emails etc with research into each operator, country, licences & work permits. Even mentioning if needed paying towards a rating to get on the ladder which sadly seems a possibility. I can say for certain that the bottom end of the market place their is no pilot shortage.
I would refer "pilot shortage" to pilots with heavy jet experience. Perhaps with on type experience, type rating TRI's / TRE's who are still current and willing to go abroad if needed. Their seems to be jobs out their for those with experience in certain areas etc.
Write about 7 - 10 letters a day that I post and send emails etc with research into each operator, country, licences & work permits. Even mentioning if needed paying towards a rating to get on the ladder which sadly seems a possibility. I can say for certain that the bottom end of the market place their is no pilot shortage.
I would refer "pilot shortage" to pilots with heavy jet experience. Perhaps with on type experience, type rating TRI's / TRE's who are still current and willing to go abroad if needed. Their seems to be jobs out their for those with experience in certain areas etc.
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"there Is No Such Thing As A..."
... LITTLE ICE" a video on icing said, that I saw long time ago.
During the video, this sentence was on the screen constantly, and the voice insisting... "there is no such thing as a little ice".
Now. I will only put one post, but consider to read it every day for ten days, so nobody makes mistakes...
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PILOTS SHORTAGE.
but there is a very lucrative bussiness based on that supposed shortage.
That is why you can read articles about it and at the time see how airlines have been laying off pilots for a decade, with only transient, short periods of hiring.
During the video, this sentence was on the screen constantly, and the voice insisting... "there is no such thing as a little ice".
Now. I will only put one post, but consider to read it every day for ten days, so nobody makes mistakes...
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PILOTS SHORTAGE.
but there is a very lucrative bussiness based on that supposed shortage.
That is why you can read articles about it and at the time see how airlines have been laying off pilots for a decade, with only transient, short periods of hiring.
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Dinosaurs will never come back, except in more Jurasic Park novels.
They are part of history.
The same applies to pilot shortages.
Only in my country there are over 6,000 unemployed pilots (that is, guys with a CPL, IR, frozen ATPL, MCC), most of which willing to pay the TR to get a job, and many are willing to pay to work, instead of getting paid.
In my country, it would take about 15 years to absorb that amount of pilots.
In other countries the situation is quite the same, and there are fewer and fewer countries short of pilots. But they are short of experienced captains and first officers, rather that guys with all the papers but without real airline experience.
Even if the FTOs stopped producing pilots right now, airlines would have no problems in finding pilots in the next 10 years or so. They would maybe have to pay for TRs in about 5 years, but they would have lots pilots available.
FTOs keep producing pilots at an astronomical rate.
Look, the cycle theories are oversimplifications. Changes occur. Growing and downsizing occur. But the magnitude is what matters. We have fallen to a lower level and we are now oscillating about this low low low level. There are years of downsizing and furloughs and then a few months of hiring, and this repeats, but the average line goes down and down...
Remember...
They are part of history.
The same applies to pilot shortages.
Only in my country there are over 6,000 unemployed pilots (that is, guys with a CPL, IR, frozen ATPL, MCC), most of which willing to pay the TR to get a job, and many are willing to pay to work, instead of getting paid.
In my country, it would take about 15 years to absorb that amount of pilots.
In other countries the situation is quite the same, and there are fewer and fewer countries short of pilots. But they are short of experienced captains and first officers, rather that guys with all the papers but without real airline experience.
Even if the FTOs stopped producing pilots right now, airlines would have no problems in finding pilots in the next 10 years or so. They would maybe have to pay for TRs in about 5 years, but they would have lots pilots available.
FTOs keep producing pilots at an astronomical rate.
Look, the cycle theories are oversimplifications. Changes occur. Growing and downsizing occur. But the magnitude is what matters. We have fallen to a lower level and we are now oscillating about this low low low level. There are years of downsizing and furloughs and then a few months of hiring, and this repeats, but the average line goes down and down...
Remember...
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PILOT SHORTAGE
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There may be, from time to time, a shortage of experienced and qualified captains willing to buy type rating / work for peanuts in a far flung third world sh!t hole
I wouldn't hold my breath to ever see again, well paid and well respected jobs in first world countries, the bean counters have all well and truly got the idea that you can get young 'uns to work for free or even worse pay to fly, and they won't give that concept up without a hell of a fight
I wouldn't hold my breath to ever see again, well paid and well respected jobs in first world countries, the bean counters have all well and truly got the idea that you can get young 'uns to work for free or even worse pay to fly, and they won't give that concept up without a hell of a fight
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And then there was Jetstar in OZ. Not only did you have to pay (or pay back the cost of) your TR, but they also charged you got an interview. Someone will correct me if I get the figure wrong but at the time I believe it was AUD$180.
Maybe a Pilot Shortage refers to those qualified individuals who are under 5' (152.4cm) tall.
Maybe a Pilot Shortage refers to those qualified individuals who are under 5' (152.4cm) tall.
maybe!
"Tis true, but it was the Luftwaffe who had the pilot shortage. RAF pilots, if alive, landed on home soil, not so the Germans. Both the Germans and the Japanese suffered from pilot shortages by '44. While the Allies used their experienced pilots to train and pass on good tactics, the Axis flew their experienced pilots until the law of averages killed them. I don't count kamikaze drivers as pilots.
GF
"Tis true, but it was the Luftwaffe who had the pilot shortage. RAF pilots, if alive, landed on home soil, not so the Germans. Both the Germans and the Japanese suffered from pilot shortages by '44. While the Allies used their experienced pilots to train and pass on good tactics, the Axis flew their experienced pilots until the law of averages killed them. I don't count kamikaze drivers as pilots.
GF
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Plenty of experienced pilots
There are several thousand highly qualified furloughed or otherwise out of work airline pilots in the US.
Many are experienced captains with long tenure, whose airlines failed.
The catch? Many,if not most, are not current.
The few big airlines hiring now seem to require currency.
I know of a 20-year experienced international B-757 and B-737NG captain whose airline went suddenly out of business some two years ago.
He was recently flying a single engine recip paying peanuts. That company just went out of business.
He attended a jobs fair a few months ago. Only two major airlines- Korean and an Indian airline- were hiring. Neither would consider non-current pilots. The only other airline hiring, a Q-400 operator, wouldn't even talk to him (apparently because they paid so little they thought experienced captains would soon leave if industry conditions improve). They said, "You wouldn't be happy here."
At the job fair, he met five pilots from his former company. All five are divorced or getting divorced; all five have lost their homes or are losing their homes. (Wouldn't have wanted to be at that post-fair bar session.)
How does one get "current" in a B-757 or B-737NG? In practical terms, one doesn't, especially if way behind on the mortgage and with no assurance of employment.
Seems like no pilot shortage here!
Many are experienced captains with long tenure, whose airlines failed.
The catch? Many,if not most, are not current.
The few big airlines hiring now seem to require currency.
I know of a 20-year experienced international B-757 and B-737NG captain whose airline went suddenly out of business some two years ago.
He was recently flying a single engine recip paying peanuts. That company just went out of business.
He attended a jobs fair a few months ago. Only two major airlines- Korean and an Indian airline- were hiring. Neither would consider non-current pilots. The only other airline hiring, a Q-400 operator, wouldn't even talk to him (apparently because they paid so little they thought experienced captains would soon leave if industry conditions improve). They said, "You wouldn't be happy here."
At the job fair, he met five pilots from his former company. All five are divorced or getting divorced; all five have lost their homes or are losing their homes. (Wouldn't have wanted to be at that post-fair bar session.)
How does one get "current" in a B-757 or B-737NG? In practical terms, one doesn't, especially if way behind on the mortgage and with no assurance of employment.
Seems like no pilot shortage here!
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The term "pilot shortage" can mean many things, but when referring to hiring this should mean that there are not enough commercial pilots available for the airlines to fill their cockpits. The last time there was a pilot shortage was during the 1940s, and that was a shortage of pilots for the Air Force. The last 8-10 years have seen a change of pace. The norm has become whether you dare gamble on buying a (preferrably) 737 TR, or gamble on getting a job with smaller operators and doing your (due) time. The latter will not pay much, and probably not be able to pay your loans, but you will get the real hands on experinece. The first, however, may (if you get a job that is...) pay for your loans and such, but you will definitely mis out on the hand son experience which airline pilots should bring along in their crew bags to the flight deck.
It`s a catch 22 for sure. One should probably not start pilot training at all nowadays, as the industry is at an alltime low, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, except perhaps the headlight heading right at you
It`s a catch 22 for sure. One should probably not start pilot training at all nowadays, as the industry is at an alltime low, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, except perhaps the headlight heading right at you
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Thing is:
People talked just like this after 9-11.
Exact same "doom and gloom" rhetoric.
History is repeating itself.
Thing is there will be another hiring period at some point in the future. I would put money on it unless you take the position that the industry is in a permanent decline, which is unlikely unless Peak Oil turns out to be real.
The most important important question is how many years away in the next major hiring cycle.
My guess based on the cycles I've seen before: two or three.
People talked just like this after 9-11.
Exact same "doom and gloom" rhetoric.
History is repeating itself.
Thing is there will be another hiring period at some point in the future. I would put money on it unless you take the position that the industry is in a permanent decline, which is unlikely unless Peak Oil turns out to be real.
The most important important question is how many years away in the next major hiring cycle.
My guess based on the cycles I've seen before: two or three.
