Ireland: Ryanair Fears €20m Pilot Hit

[fivehundred]

Hi Leo,
Im new here.
Dont Wish me a Happy New Year. You Hypocrite.

I am new here and all I can say is you are a disgrace.

Its guys like you, and I know your not MOL, are dragging this place into the mire.

Please wake up.
lets protect ourselves. Long Live IALPA

[RogerIrrelevant69]

Many thanks Leo, this latest monologue ticks many of the boxes your finest contributions have ticked.

No doubt this will lead to dozens of replies today but in the interest of brevity (a concept not entirely familiar to LHC) a couple of top tips for the novice reader:

1. LHC monologues are not and never have been a cue for dialogue. This is strictly a one way process. Specific questions to LHC about any aspect of FR's operation past, present or future will be ignored unless they are very convenient. This may frustrate some less familiar with LHC but there you have it.

2. LHC is not MOL (evidence suggests MOL's vocabulary runs to about 10% of LHC's). However, I am lead to believe LHC is not too far removed from sharing the same trough.

[GGV]

In one early disaster, REPA very nearly roasted alive a fine and decent man who was good naturedly persuaded to bulwark their first foray.

Leo this is a direct reflection of the thinking of the most senior figures in Ryanair management. I know, because I have a direct connection to both sides of this argument and I have direct quotes from two such figures in Ryanair and a personal conversation with the individual concerned.

Here is your problem. Not only have you been repeatedly told that this man NEVER had anything involvement, but a judge of the High Court has spelled out the facts in considerable detail (which I have read). And those facts are that there NEVER was a case - nor any evidence - against the "fine and decent man" (one of the few accurate bits in your post; however, if he is such a "fine and decent man" why do you accuse him of being a liar?).

What my sources tells me is that the most senior levels of Ryanair management think that they really did have the "right man", that the judge got it wrong, that a former manager from Stansted "let them down badly" and finally, that their legal counsel in the case - wait for it - "failed to cross-examine properly".

What the judge did say contradicts what you say. Most of rest of us mortals have noticed that the targeting of "a fine a decent man" has occurred on more than one occasion in Ryanair.

You find such behaviour acceptable. Which yet again speaks volumes about you. Unless, that is, you are a fool of the greatest order and actually DO think that this "fine and decent man" is also a liar and guilty of intimidation and bullying (or even of involvement in the events you describe). I believe his denials, you clearly do not. Your reference to him is thus self-serving and suggests cynicism of the highest order.

The rest of your stuff is typical hot air (and IALPA clearly is getting to you, judging from your venom!). But it is about time you sorted out where you stand on the issue of this "fine and decent man". Either you and MOL are right, or a judge of the High Court is right. I know where my vote is going.

[the grim repa]

now i know how to cure my insomnia,log onto pprune about 01:02.what a nights sleep i had.must be my clear conscience.how did you sleep leo the loser.see you on the 31st buddy,bring the check book,HA!HA!bye the way,you a beginning to repeat yourself,not a good sign.loser!

[Marvo]

Having read LHC's post I feel inclined to dontate my sector cheque this month to REPA ! Unfortunalty it's worth f**k all...

keep up the good work Neil.....

[CamelhAir]

I was reading the Camels latest diatribe and a historical comparison immediately sprang to mind. Any student of the European history will be aware of Hitler's actions in the last few days of the Third Reich, as he moved non-existant divisions around the battle map, planned grandiose counter attacks with long-destroyed battle groups, planned the rebuilding of Berlin, ranted and raved against traitors and enemies, real or perceived, and generally indulged in the highly delusional and deranged while the edifices of his empire fell around him.
60 years later another delusional character has moved into the final stages of his own battle. Each posting is an ever surer sign that victory is imminent.

[captplaystation]

I've said it before, and no doubt I'll say it again, but I find it more than a little disturbing to think that one so manifestly delusional as sad old Leo is actually left in charge of a public transport aircraft. JEEZUS.

[Sunfish]

Happy New Year Mr. Camel!

We have around another 160 brand new aircraft on order for the time being, and will need to employ thousands more pilots to fly them in due course, thus creating opportunities for young men and women across Europe to actively pursue their dreams of a job in the airline world that otherwise wouldn’t exist, a fact conspicuously overlooked in certain unsavoury industrial quarters, but more on that later.

I'm sure that last century's mine owners used similar descriptive language lauding their incredible generosity in providing jobs for children in coal mines.

P.S. How big is you cash mountain these days and how does it compare with your long and short term liabilities?

[Ignition Override]

In the past, was there a comparison made between Ryanair and (US) Southwest Airlines?

This type of legal action at Southwest Airlines appears, based on all media articles familiar to me, along with pilot reports, to be incomprehensible.

We have many furloughed and active pilots who would give anything to work at Southwest or Fedex. Our youngest pilots, whether active or not, are all at least 36 years old, many in their early 40s.

[sky9]

It should not go unnoticed that Ireland has particularly generous tax benefits for aircraft leasing companies. British banks have their leasing arms registered in Ireland for that reason.

One of the interesting facts about the Ryanair accounts is the number of aircraft that appear on operating leases. I suspect that sell and leaseback is a part of the story of the Ryanair financial success story.

[CamelhAir]

I suspect that sell and leaseback is a part of the story of the Ryanair financial success story.

Indeed it is. The figures for 2005, as I recall, show that ryanairs 21% operating margin is very misleading. Strip out the profit from the sale and leaseback operation and the margin is a rather less than spectacular approx 7% - less than, for example. BA and EI in the same year. So the model is all well and good at the moment, but what happens next?

As I see it, at some point, the source of cheap aircraft runs out. Boeing, understandably, will be less than enthusiastic about selling fr another load of cheapies, seeing fr then use said aircraft to massively undercut Boeings list price on new aircraft, by selling their own new, or nearly new, aircraft for a lot less. Boeing are now being screwed twice. Airbus, too, will no doubt be also less than interested in the same happening to them.

So what next? Now fr becomes an airline with similar margins to other companies out there. An airline has control over 2 things with which to raise margins, namely 1) raise yields or 2) cut costs.

This is when fr runs in to trouble, and is possibly the reason MOL is selling his shares regularly, and why the Ryan family no longer retain any substantial interest in ryanair.

Why? Let's look first at raising yields. Ryanair has nowhere to go here, simply because cheap fares are virtually the only reason anyone flies with us. The service is so poor (non-existant) and the whole experience so awful for a passenger, that it will not be possible to raise fares and keep the punters coming. Why would you as a passenger? Given a similar price to almost any rival, its a no-brainer which airline will be chosen.

So that leaves costs. But there's a limit to where this can go, and they're bloody low already. The staff can be bullied to an extent (an extent which will be a lot less post-Jan 31st), but staff costs are only a relatively small portion of costs. Many many more costs are outside ryanairs control and won't succumb as readily to MOL's bluster. Other airlines on the other hand have fat here to reduce.

Its arguable that costs can be driven much lower and its certain that yields can't be driven higher, so once the cheap aircraft run out, watch the shareprice plummet faster than a Knock approach.

[RogerIrrelevant69]

CamelhAir,

Thought provoking indeed. Reminds me of a documentary I watched the other day called "Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room". A must see for those interested in spin and fraud in the world of business. Having been a employee of a dot.com company that became a dot.bomb company, it all rang rather true. Lucky I sold my shares at $32 each and not the current value of $0

Any chance of a sequel about Ryanair in a few years time? Suggested titles on a postcard please.

[sky9]

The figures for 2005, as I recall, show that ryanairs 21% operating margin is very misleading. Strip out the profit from the sale and leaseback operation and the margin is a rather less than spectacular approx 7% - less than, for example. BA and EI in the same year.

Now who's going tell me who owned that great Irish leasing company Guinness Peat and what happened to them after they cornered the market in Boeing products up to 2000; that must have been in the mid 80's?

[Sunfish]

As i've said before; "The New Business Model" has been the trumpeted reason for the apparent meteoric success of many businesses since before the great depression, I seem to recall words to the effect that "economies of scale and new technologies underpin todays historically high share price gains " - these were said by an analyst just before the great crash (1929).

However "The New Business Model" usually turns out to be one of the same old depressingly familiar business models dressed in fancy new clothes and a bit of lipstick.

It is extremely hard for any business to produce returns very different from its competitors in the long term, period, assuming that neither you or your competitors are complete idiots. There are certain costs you can perhaps trim better than the next guy, you may gain efficiencies and be a little more market savvy than your competitors, but the advantages are fleeting since your competitors will emulate your best ideas anyway. this even happens on a national scale - remember the "Asian Tiger" economies??????

So how and why do companies trumpet about "New Business models" and why do people listen? The answer is that people want to believe they can get something for nothing. They want "good news" stories. They want to believe that their shares in "Grot PLC" really are going to be worth ten times more than "Muck PLC", "Rubbish PLC" and all the other recycling firms.

So when the Chairman of Grotco gets up and trumpets about his new business model, how its a boon to mankind and how it has permanently changed the rules of the rubbish recycling industry (sorry make that the residue reprocessing industry) he gets a standing ovation.

However the truth is usually more prosaic. Grotco has either cooked its books by understating its liabilities or fallen for the temptation of underpricing its products in the hope of driving its competitors out of business and then raising its prices to make up the shortfall. The auditors occasionally discover the mess, but not always until the cash runs out.

Would Ryanair be following one of these business models? How would I know? But I am suspicious of new paradigms that don't appear on the surface to make much sense. Especially when their promoters keep talking about their benefits to mankind and not their core sustainable profitability, shorn of extraordinary transactions.

Call me an old fashioned dinosaur, but I care not for new business models or growth or revenue prospects or benefits to mankind and small furry animals. I want to see the dividend cheque.

[Fogie]

M O'l Is God?

Hi ,
Can we have a reality check, m o'l is trying to help pilots realize that life is not only about money and status,or flying,but the sacrifice of self for the greater good.
I feel so priviliged that both his archangels and self have chosen to be so honest in sharing the torment and anguish which they have suffered to reach this point of perfection.
And as I pause in thought and prayer,a moment of doubt crosses my mind fleetingly, are they true and honest or just a group of shallow,materialistic people who were neglected by their parents and bullied at school,but that passes.
But as I go to my bed,I realize that there is a little bit of them in me,but more important part of us in them ?.
Sleep well ,Love those close to you and don't be afraid of the Bogeyman

[Finman]

OK Leo! I know you are not MOL but lets just pretend. Now that you have taken on board that 900 hours as a target was 'no way to run an airline' (according to PB anyway) you have set a new target of 875 hours. What this means in effect is that your pilots will average 850 hours per year (and many will be lucky to reach that this year). Given that that means you need to find another 75000 block hours of crew (1500 pilots X 50 hours) this will cost you an additional £3,750,000 in basic wages. Of course this is better than last years debacle when you had to stump up £17,000,000 in leasing fees due to DOBs screw up in under crewing the airline. The big question for someone who won't let his staff use their phone chargers at work to save pennies (cents) is this: doesn't it really really irk you to have all those lazy pilots sitting at home on standby doing nothing, being paid their basic pay, when you could be working them the extra 50 hours? Have you gone soft?

[the grim repa]

what ryanair REALLY thinks about unions and pilots!

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1829586.htm

Beware australia,the pit pony show is coming to town!

[drnick384]

Ryanair is a non-unionised company. The staff are all in profit sharing

What a load of

[BEagle]

Only 1 week to go until the Irish Supreme Court date...........

[gulfairs]

ryanair

I flew for one of their branches back in the late 80's and early 90's
Compared to the the worst employer I ever had in a 58 year working life,
Ryanair, was head and shoulders above the rest, for being a good employer.
Tough, demanding but adequate pay( who does not want a little more?),
And crew scheduling was supreme.
My worst employer ever was the NZ flag carrier in the early and mid 80's.
It is hard to be satisfied all the time,
But get unemployed and see how good any job is.