Outrageous recession propaganda
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Join Date: Sep 2000
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Outrageous recession propaganda
Some city analysts are coming out with the most outrageous forecasts of long term passenger traffic reduction.These are finding there way onto this forum via people who seem to get a kick out of trying to create insecurity.One of The Governors latest gems is that"traffic will reduce by 50-67% over the next couple of years"
THIS IS JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!
Here are some facts drawn from analysis of our industry over the last thirty years.
1 World Revenue Passenger Miles are directly related to World Gross Domestic Product(the broadest indicator of economic activity)If both are plotted since 1970 you will see the peaks and troughs mirror each other almost exactly.Roughly speaking a 1% fall in WGDP equates to a 2% fall in WRPMs
2 Over the same period the largest ever two year fall in WRPMs was 11% at the end of the 1970s (67%?????)
Question-what exactly is going to cause world traffic to reduce at the 67% forecast by our razor sharp analyst.
Answer-A 32% reduction in World Gross Domestic Product.
Problem- The worst recent history reducion in WGDP over two years was 6%.So how can anyone suggest 32%?
If you add together the combined effects of our last three recessions ie
- The 1970s fuel crisis
- The longest recession at the turn of the 1980s
- The Gulf war crisis
This still amounts to a reduction in WGDP of less than 15%
This information is used by Boeing and Airbus Industrie as a Key Performance Indicator to extrapolate into the future and predict airline requirements.I offer it as a reality check against the uninformed ramblings of city analysts and those who take their word as gospel.
THIS IS JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!
Here are some facts drawn from analysis of our industry over the last thirty years.
1 World Revenue Passenger Miles are directly related to World Gross Domestic Product(the broadest indicator of economic activity)If both are plotted since 1970 you will see the peaks and troughs mirror each other almost exactly.Roughly speaking a 1% fall in WGDP equates to a 2% fall in WRPMs
2 Over the same period the largest ever two year fall in WRPMs was 11% at the end of the 1970s (67%?????)
Question-what exactly is going to cause world traffic to reduce at the 67% forecast by our razor sharp analyst.
Answer-A 32% reduction in World Gross Domestic Product.
Problem- The worst recent history reducion in WGDP over two years was 6%.So how can anyone suggest 32%?
If you add together the combined effects of our last three recessions ie
- The 1970s fuel crisis
- The longest recession at the turn of the 1980s
- The Gulf war crisis
This still amounts to a reduction in WGDP of less than 15%
This information is used by Boeing and Airbus Industrie as a Key Performance Indicator to extrapolate into the future and predict airline requirements.I offer it as a reality check against the uninformed ramblings of city analysts and those who take their word as gospel.
Join Date: Mar 2000
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Sad thing is.....-15% results in a LOT of professional pilots out of work. The knock-on effect will be quite substantial, you can be sure. Reality will set in for many in the near future. Many of the younger guys just have not seen a down market....tough times ahead for many. Sad ....but true.
If you look at the loads of the four aircraft involved - all peak morning transcontinental departures, I think that the US carriers were already in difficulties. What Tuesday's tragedy has done is accelerate and, fuelled by the public's now new fear of flying, intensify what was on the cards anyway. Hopefully, it will be a relatively short recession, but there are so many unknown factors out there right now that it's going to be difficult for anyone to predict.
Join Date: Aug 2000
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The big difference with this 'approaching' recession from previous ones, apart from having total prats like the Governor come out with damn fool predictions that are plain daft, is that I have never before know so many people, on TV and papers and pprune, come out with so many personal predictions as 'fact'. Fact- nobody, not even fools like 'Governor' (arrogant name or what?), has any idea how severe or long lasting this will be. Knowing how in previous recessions all predictions I read were wrong, I have no faith this time. Air travel will not suddenly stop. Defence spending will go up (a major economy boost). So let's all stop panic predictions/rumours/gossip and just play along with it! Ignore twerps like Governor- he is out to make 3000 posts when I think he thinks he will get a prize, and this will help him get there. Shame we all have to read it!
