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Lilium Reaffirms 2026 Target for First Customer Deliveries and Provides Additional Detail on Testing Program
17.07.2024 From a Lilium Media Release. |
Originally Posted by sandringham1
(Post 11715239)
They have spent a billion $ getting this far, without a full scale airframe let alone a manned flight. Given the 8 year time scale, is is it fair to characterize the pace of development as conservative? Engineering led? Too big to fail? Effects of covid would not have helped development, how does this timeframe compare to development other new aircraft? I ask because, from the get go, we all agreed the project would live or die on wether imminent improvements to battery density would be sufficient to create a commercially viable public transport aircraft. I wonder if this was the primary factor in the *business* development schedule, namely no rush as the battery tech has only recently reached viability? Also, could there be aerodynamic issues in the full scale version which were not foreseen in the scale testing? Mjb |
Originally Posted by mickjoebill
(Post 11715315)
Given the 8 year time scale, is is it fair to characterize the pace of development as conservative?
Too big to fail? I ask because, from the get go, we all agreed the project would live or die on wether imminent improvements to battery density would be sufficient to create a commercially viable public transport aircraft. |
All going well then...
Lilium has stepped up pressure on the German federal and Bavarian state governments to finalize guarantees for a €100 million ($110 million) loan from a German state development bank that is essential to keeping the electric air taxi developer afloat. If the German government does not approve the loan guarantees or fails to complete the approval process in the anticipated timeline, Lilium will be forced to make cost cuts, reduce operations or file for insolvency, the company warns in financial statements issued on Sept. 30. Lilium “requires additional capital immediately to continue to fund its ongoing operations,” the document says. Based on progress to date, “approval is expected to be obtained within the next few weeks.” It would take another three-five weeks to receive the first of two tranches of the loan. “It seems they are pushing the government to take a decision, as its loan unlocks additional financing of €32 million from shareholders need to continue funding the company,” says Sergio Cecutta, a partner in SMG Consulting. “The clock is ticking for them and, without funding spanning multiple quarters, the situation does not look good.” Each of the two loan tranches will be contingent on Lilium securing minimum commitments for additional funding from other investors, the filing says. Existing investors have committed to provide the €32 million to meet immediate liquidity requirements, but some of those funds are contingent on approval of the loan guarantees. Lilium says it is in discussions with shareholders, prospective investors and finance partners to secure further funding. SMG Consulting’s Advanced Air Mobility Reality Index says Munich-based Lilium has raised $1,456 million so far. According to the company’s financial statements, Lilium had accumulated losses of €1,446 million as of June 30, suggesting its funds are close to exhaustion. Lilium acknowledges it has substantial funding needs beyond 2024. While these are expected to be met in part by the second tranche of the government loan, it will come with conditions and the company will need to secure additional funding from other investors to continue operations. Lilium’s ability to continue as a going concern is “highly dependent” on its ability to obtain the government convertible loan, the filing says. If it is unsuccessful in raising sufficient capital, the company says it will be required to undertake additional cost-cutting measures “including significant headcount reductions that could force it to curtail or discontinue operations.” The startup has achieved the systems power-on stage in final assembly of the first prototype of its Lilium Jet, but the piloted first flight of the electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft has slipped into early 2025. Some predelivery payments from customers are likely tied to that milestone. Lilium is still targeting certification and first deliveries in 2026. |
Over $/€1.4bn lost (so far). Wow.
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Is there a book / research somewhere that looks at the commercial successes in aviation?? Anecdotally id have thought that the more complex the less it makes sense.
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Originally Posted by wrench1
(Post 11715723)
It’s the UAM/AAM concept that is too big to fail. The only thing it has been lacking for decades is an aircraft that could meet the long-established goals of UAM which conventional aircraft could not provide. But the current eVTOL, VTOL, and eSTOL designs can.
What makes one of these more capable? |
eVTOL is a technology-led product still looking for the killer application.
As wrench1 has said: At the time the eVTOL industry started to break out, the battery density/storage/power capabilities at that time were enough to meet the goals and requirements within the UAM concept for range, payload, etc. However, IMO it will be the next generation of fuel cell technology and/or hybrid-engine technology that will drive the growth for e-aircraft in general instead of only battery tech improvements. But to return to UAM, it is not quite as simple as it first appears; yes, eVTOLs with their many thrust units with modern geometry props/rotors are much quieter, and therefore acceptable, than the current crop of helicopters. But, they suffer from issues of downwash/outwash (some of them extreme) and, because of their certification basis (EASA - 'enhanced', and FAA 'increased performance'), will be subject to rules similar to Performance Class 1 (although for the FAA that is not yet clear). EASA's enhanced certification requires that the safety target of 1 x 10-9 be achieved; depending on the reliability of the power-unit train, this might mean the loss of one or even several thrust units (and asymmetric power control might not be that easy). However, for UAM it is the limitation of the take-off climb 'obstacle limitation surface' (OLS) in an obstacle-rich environment that might be the real issue. ICAO addressed this several years ago by permitting the elevation of the (origin of the) OLS sometimes by hundreds of feet - thus allowing it to be positioned above all obstacles. Helicopter manufacturers met that challenge (or might even have facilitated it) with the development of 'vertical procedures' - allowing the attainment of the OLS elevation by adding an all-engines-operating (AEO) steep/vertical (ascent/descent surface) element to the Category A profiles. Elevation of the OLS remains the solution for vertiports in an urban environment. but the achievement of the steep/vertical ascent/descent requires an application of maximum power for a period that might wreck the previously designed flight profiles with the demand on battery power. Yes, eVTOL development is moving at an impressive pace but still has to satisfy the population's (both those travelling and those over which operations are being performed) aspirations of safe flight. Jim |
Originally Posted by JimL
(Post 11747268)
eVTOL development is moving at an impressive pace
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A new video...
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Originally Posted by Playingnice
(Post 11746815)
Can you justify that statement?
What makes one of these more capable? |
Looks like things are coming to a head...
Air taxi firm Lilium’s shares plunge 61% after company says main subsidiaries will file for insolvencyPublished Thu, Oct 24 20249:52 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Oct 24 20244:05 PM EDT
German company Lilium produces flying electric passenger drones. LiliumShares of Lilium tanked Thursday after the air taxi firm said in a filing that its two main subsidiaries will file for insolvency in the coming days. The German aerospace startup’s shares plunged more than 60% following the news, then slightly pared its losses midday, only to return closer to its opening drop. The stock closed at a new 52-week low for the day, down 61% at roughly 20 cents per share. In a U.S. regulatory filing, Lilium — which is listed on the Nasdaq — said it had not been able to raise sufficient additional funds to continue the operations of Lilium GmbH and Lilium eAircraft GmbH, the firm’s two main subsidiaries. As a result, the heads of these subsidiaries “determined that they are overindebted ... and are or will become unable to pay their existing liabilities due ... within the next few days,” Lilium said. “The management of the Subsidiaries has informed the Company that they have to file for insolvency under German law and in doing so will apply for self-administration proceedings in Germany,” it added. Lilium had tried and failed to persuade the federal government in Germany to supply it with state support. Lilium was seeking to raise 50 million euros ($54 million) of loans from the state coffers, however, its request was rejected by lawmakers. In all, Lilium was trying to raise a convertible loan of 100 million euros. The proposed state aid would have been issued by KfW, the German state-owned development bank. After being rejected by the federal government, Lilium continued separate conversations with the state of Bavaria in southeast Germany. It was seeking to raise at least 50 million euros from the Bavarian state. However, on Thursday, Lilium said it had “not reached an agreement in principle” with Bavaria. Once they have filed for insolvency, the subsidiaries will generally not have to repay any pre-application debt, Lilium said, adding that creditors typically will be “prohibited from foreclosing against the companies on any claims they may have.” The subsidiaries’ planned insolvency filings could result in Lilium ultimately delisting from the Nasdaq Global Select Market, or having its shares suspended. |
Originally Posted by wrench1
(Post 11747526)
As I’ve mentioned previously, there are a multitude of studies, articles, papers, etc on this subject in the public domain from various entities like the UN, FAA, EASA, and so on, which should answer all your questions. In previous UAM attempts helicopters could not meet those goals. However, the closest "UAM" success can be found in Sao Paulo.
Street-level access, reduced noise footprint, pax cost/mile, etc. This info is also contained in the referenced reports and studies above. |
Seems like another Moller Aircar to me. Sucking up untold millions of $$ with no success.
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Originally Posted by Evil Twin
(Post 11758182)
Seems like another Moller Aircar to me. Sucking up untold millions of $$ with no success.
Personally I am disappointed waiting years for a full sized piloted example to take to the air, while at the same time thinking, is it just a bunch of clever engineers struggling to turn an artistic concept into reality. |
They have an interesting blown flap or even blown wing concept. Has this ever been practically demonstrated to be more efficient than what all the other guys are doing?
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Originally Posted by Mee3
(Post 11758143)
The study itself can be skewed by public hype at those time spaces.
Turns out hybrid helicopter seems to be the next hype after evtols fully exhibits their short coming.
Originally Posted by Less Hair
(Post 11837740)
They have an interesting blown flap or even blown wing concept. Has this ever been practically demonstrated to be more efficient than what all the other guys are doing?
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
(Post 11837740)
Has this ever been practically demonstrated to be more efficient than what all the other guys are doing?
Lilium kept pushing the idea that a ducted fan is 41% more efficient, (yes it is true, it is called Froude efficiency), but their disk loading is more than 10 times that of a tilt rotor concept! Consequently Lilium concept is 50% less efficent than other tilt rotor concepts. This was known all along by the scientific community, it just took longer for the investor comunity to wake up to the truth. its explained in great specific detail in that video (mark 25:00) |
guess it doesnt matter if bust??
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Originally Posted by AIN
February 26, 2025
Lilium’s dream of bringing a six-passenger eVTOL aircraft to market seems to have ended in insolvency, while Eviation has had to lay off almost all staff as its main shareholder seeks new backing. Plus, Airbus appears to be slowing down its efforts to electrify aviation in what could make a turning point for a major aerospace industry trend. |
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