SASless - make sure it's not the Crew Boat Company recommended by Chris Grayling ....

BRS was $1.54 a few minutes ago....down 6.67% today.

PHI INC/SH is $3.51....down 5.9%.

The Links are for 12:27 PM EST graphs




https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=BRS,+Stock+Quote&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8


https://www.google.com/search?client...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

BRS in it's final death throes. Any move up is on thin volume and people punting.

Fairly damning letter from yesterday on helihub from an activist investor who is very long PHI. Can't post links yet or I would. Things don't sound good, although the investor solution seems to be "SELL THE AM WING!" But if I'm another operator, why should I spend $400 M on a bunch of helicopters and contracts now when I could wait for bankruptcy and buy them for a fraction of the price? And what operator has $400M lying around that would be interested?

Plus, with Waypoint filing, BRS possibly going to file, and PHI looking grim, why would anyone not already invested in helicopter services want to step into the market? It would be bizarre.

BRS down 14.55% today......$1.41 at the close of trade.

PHI only down 2.95%.

Different dynamic between PHI and BRS.

First, the PHI "activist investor" is only long about 11% in non-voting PHI stock compared to the 75+% of voting PHI stock the sole owner of the company has. He's hardly an issue and has no standing in the big picture. Second, this "investor" has been called out in the past in other posts and PHI public statements. So again, hardly an issue. Funny, he usually brings up the same problems you do?

Had PHI not gone the HNZ path it would have been interesting to see where they would stack right now. They're only now looking at heavy reductions that others had already done 2 years ago. The contracts they have are solid for the next couple years and they do have the EMS nickel that helps balance a few things out. However, I think the EMS market is about to go through their own "rebirth" in the next year or two.

As for BRS, there are a few underlying issues. This isn't the 1st time the books were off in recent times and required adjustment. But I don't think there will be any corruption charges floated this time. The industry changed but I think in the end, the 225 debacle will prove to have more cause in the industry recovery than previously thought. Just look at Milestone, CHC, and others.

In all my years in the business with the huge ups/downs, I've never seen the bottom completely fall out as this. I think Sasless is right in that the old business model of flying old, paid-for airframes kept that bottom in place. It will be interesting how things work out as I sit and watch from a far. I wish the best for all concerned but I'm just as glad I retired 5 years ago.

I still think the problems are capacity driven, leasing companies in the 2005-2012 period made it easy and attractive to lease new aircraft on a no money down fly away basis. While the leases were upfront cheap to get into, like all leases they were for 10 years with no mid term variation. No one foresaw the oil price falling to $30 in the middle of the lease terms. All of a sudden, the leases looked expensive. Falling contract prices with high costs lease price meant losses for the operators.

There would have been huge spare capacity regardless of the 225 issue. Same with rigs and vessels. Arguably, the 225 issue helped by taking immediate capacity out of the still slightly flooded market. There are still 30 unemployed S-92s available today looking for work.

There is a big difference between PHI and BRS. PHI owns most of its aircraft, BRS no longer does. PHI has not sold and leased back aircraft to generate cash, which in the BRS case seems to be to burn it in operating losses. Mr. Gonsoulin is a shrewd operator and he doesn't talk PHI's business openly. You would have to be in the inner sanctum of the inner sanctum to know the plan.

The commercials of aviation have forever been odd. You have huge costs of capital, huge ongoing costs in terms of training, maintenance and the fulfilment of regulation but despite all of that as has been already highlighted there are those that are happy to give customers the effective free option. Whereby the investor takes all that long term risk to provide the customer with a low cost service the business case for which is only valid with high utilisation. It would seem that can be made to work with airlines operating for the masses. It seems it is at best marginal in the environment Bristow operate.

The 225 issues are interesting because anecdotally it does seem that beyond the physical availability of the aircraft how do you quantify the huge damage done to reputation and perception of risk? After all of the UK based 225 and derivatives issues when the rotor departs company in Norway I'm not sure talk of increasing investment in that area would be entirely welcome. The time frame and procedures (including information flow) that are common to such investigations maybe understood and accepted for those simply interested in the aviation element but it will be unbelievable to the person investing or put another way the person allowing the entire endeavour to exist.

If the drag on the business from the 225 is at all material to the Bristow group then I would find it impossible to believe that information upon the causal effect on failures that have blighted the type since when 2009? have been disclosed fully or been made available to investors. Whilst aviators may often take a purist view and be entirely comfortable to "wait for final report" I do not think it is a huge leap of imagination that delays (or perhaps the timely release of) could well be due to pressure / objections around language that prevents (or reduces) the possibility of legal action due to any misdirection.

Bristow and PHI are two very different companies....in many aspects that are quite important.

PHI primarily operates in the Gulf of Mexico while Bristow primarily operates outside the Gulf of Mexico.

Bristow is primarily a "large helicopter" operator and PHI operates a more mixed fleet with a majority of them being smaller aircraft.

Bristow is generally a two Crew operation vice PHI's single pilot crew due to the numbers of small aircraft.

PHI must be a much simpler operation to control as compared to Bristow.

As to leasing.....when you own the Leasing Company you obtain your leased aircraft from.....you still own the aircraft and the aircraft costs.

The 225 situation is not what did in Bristow.....but it certainly played a role in creating financial losses.

Not controlling costs is what did in the Company....and not having a contingency plan for a market downturn that would sustain the company during that down turn.

This not foreseeing a 30 Dollar Barrel thing.....there have been downturns in the oil business quiet often.

Forgetting that happens is the major failure.

SASless.
You can probably remember the Klondike days on the North Sea in the early nineties when the Brent went down from $32 to $18.

The signs on the walls of the bars.

'Please God, bring up the price of oil. We promise not to piss it against the wall next time.'

Then there was the 8 Dollars per Barrel days that nearly bankrupted the Saudi Royal Family.

In Alaska at the end of the Pipeline Construction....we saw the very same kinds of signs everywhere....car dealers, apartment complexes, real estate brokerages, aircraft operators, trucking companies......even the Bawdy Houses and Street Walkers felt the impact!


Chart showing Oil Prices since the 1950's.....lots of ups and downs....with HUGE swings!

I found the Ten Year Chart informative......and of more pertinent than the initial 1950's chart.


https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/cru...-history-chart

I'm assuming Bristow are the major share holder in AirNorth (Or at least they were)? If this is the case, what will happen to AirNorth if Bristow goes belly up ? AirNorth is bleeding money, canceling flights left, right and centre as well as many flights delayed due staff shortages.

With Airnorth you can take a trip to that luxurious resort at Truscott.

Truscott is awesome, apart from the Airnorth death pencil flight. The never ending cake fridge is the stuff of legend, I'd almost go back to offshore (and be bored of flying for the rest of my days) to go back to Truscott. There is so much to see there historically and just the camaraderie, better than Karratha or worse Barrow!

????
https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-...llcap-600.html

NEW YORK, Feb. 26, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Livent Corp. (NYSE: LTHM) will replace Bristow Group Inc. (NYSE: BRS) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the open of trading on Tuesday, March 5. S&P 500 constituent FMC Corp. (NYSE: FMC) is spinning off all its holdings of Livent to shareholders. Bristow Group is ranked at the bottom of the S&P SmallCap 600 and no longer representative of the small-cap market space. FMC Corp. will remain in the S&P 500.Livent Corp manufactures and sells performance lithium compounds that are used primarily in energy storage, specialty polymers, and chemical synthesis application. Headquartered in Philadelphia, PA, the company will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) Specialty Chemicals Sub-Industry index. Following is a summary of the change: For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.

BRS stocks closed last night at $1.28, this time last year they were trading at $15.18 !! ohh dear

I forgot about Eastern, they used to be a great regional airline, used them many times out of ABZ. Sounds like they are in the $hit as well

[QUOTE=Evil Twin;10400743]Truscott is awesome, apart from the Airnorth death pencil flight. The never ending cake fridge is the stuff of legend, I'd almost go back to offshore (and be bored of flying for the rest of my days) to go back to Truscott. There is so much to see there historically and just the camaraderie, better than Karratha or worse Barrow![/QUOTE

what about the 3 roast meat sunday lunches?

Just don't step on it.