Surviving the oil slump
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 1 Dunghill Mansions, Putney
Posts: 1,797
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
Pessimistic outlook from Bell:
Bell sees delayed recovery in commercial helicopter market
And the latest delivery stats for the third quarter from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association show a 25% year-on-year slump in turbine helicopter deliveries.
I/C
Bell sees delayed recovery in commercial helicopter market
Patrick Moulay, VP Global Sales and Marketing for [Bell] helicopter, said the outlook was worse than expected six months ago, given that key customers now believed that oil and gas prices would remain lower for a longer period. "We're actually in a tougher spot now than we were six months ago," [said] Moulay. "The entire industry has given up on a recovery in 2016. We don't see (it) now before the first quarter or the second quarter (of 2017)."
I/C
I/C,
I broadly agree with the general 'lower for longer' outlook. However, that is predicated on today's events; tomorrow's events can lift that price in a heartbeat. I think a geo-political change with negative impact on the global oil supply is more likely than a huge advance in alternatives to hydrocarbons in the next 2 years.
I broadly agree with the general 'lower for longer' outlook. However, that is predicated on today's events; tomorrow's events can lift that price in a heartbeat. I think a geo-political change with negative impact on the global oil supply is more likely than a huge advance in alternatives to hydrocarbons in the next 2 years.
Everybody seems to think that the FAIR price for oil is in the US$100+ level; it isn't. The price today is the same as 2004 adjusted for inflation and before that IT WAS LOWER, at times a lot lower. I don't seem to remember offshore pilots crying over their futures then.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...ices_Table.asp
I certainly wasn't, I was raking it in.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...ices_Table.asp
I certainly wasn't, I was raking it in.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 1 Dunghill Mansions, Putney
Posts: 1,797
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
minigundiplomat,
Very true. Which makes a farce of the high-priced, mass-produced 10-year forecasts which fill my spam folder most months (even Honeywell now only projects within a 5-year forecast horizon).
nowherespecial,
Woo-hoo! It's been a while since I looked at my post c...
I/C
Very true. Which makes a farce of the high-priced, mass-produced 10-year forecasts which fill my spam folder most months (even Honeywell now only projects within a 5-year forecast horizon).
nowherespecial,
Woo-hoo! It's been a while since I looked at my post c...
I/C
Rotor & Wing Magazine :: Bristow Says Offshore Sector Faces Unmatched Headwinds
Not just CHC facing problems. If BRS are struggling to make any money with their pretty sensible capital structure, other operators will have more pain to bear first in a lower for longer environment.
'And it's MGD at the line by 3 posts'... Well done guys. A pleasure to watch 2 heavyweights duke it out.
Not just CHC facing problems. If BRS are struggling to make any money with their pretty sensible capital structure, other operators will have more pain to bear first in a lower for longer environment.
'And it's MGD at the line by 3 posts'... Well done guys. A pleasure to watch 2 heavyweights duke it out.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 1 Dunghill Mansions, Putney
Posts: 1,797
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
Originally Posted by nowherespecial
Not just CHC facing problems
HNZ Group shares hit a nearly six-year low Monday after the helicopter services firm announced it will suspend its monthly dividend starting next year as it deals with a slowdown in the resource sector, a key market segment. Shares of the firm sank to $10 in early trading on the TSX, representing a 28% decline from Friday's close — the lowest level since February 2010.
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Canada
Posts: 690
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
That is not stopping NHV opening a base in Aberdeen in the faces of CHC, Bond and Bristow.
They have to have somewhere to park all the idle 175s they bought....
ABZ is a declining market at the moment; still big but shrinking. The fields are mature and the oil companies there are more open minded than ever to share cost on helicopters. Why NHV think now is a good time to get in is anyone's guess. They've had a year almost to delay this, maybe contracts mean that they had to 'take delivery' of it but there are so many other places their money could be spent.
Surely that capital would have been better spent on the Ghana work they already are on or tendering for?
ABZ is a declining market at the moment; still big but shrinking. The fields are mature and the oil companies there are more open minded than ever to share cost on helicopters. Why NHV think now is a good time to get in is anyone's guess. They've had a year almost to delay this, maybe contracts mean that they had to 'take delivery' of it but there are so many other places their money could be spent.
Surely that capital would have been better spent on the Ghana work they already are on or tendering for?
Did any one else notice.....
That, unlike in the not too distance past, a terrorist event such as t'other day would have caused oil to rise......strange how we've all been taken for mugs for so long.
I guess it will rise when the Saudis say it will.
Bad news for those who produce meaningless forecasts.
I guess it will rise when the Saudis say it will.
Bad news for those who produce meaningless forecasts.
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Aberdeen
Posts: 1,234
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Nowherespecial is certainly correct regarding Aberdeen. The 'consultations' with the offshore workforce regarding rota changes are now working towards their end points. The number of flights required for a 2 on, 3 off rota versus 3 on, 3 off will see a pretty dramatic reduction in flying - and those changes are only going to really kick in over the next couple of months. The reductions to date have been driven by the cuts in drilling and project support.
Most operators have already been through two phases of 'cost/headcount reduction'. The helicopter operators are further down the grapevine and that is coming their way.
It will be a considerable time before offshore rotas go back to 2 and 3.
Most operators have already been through two phases of 'cost/headcount reduction'. The helicopter operators are further down the grapevine and that is coming their way.
It will be a considerable time before offshore rotas go back to 2 and 3.
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: retirementland
Age: 79
Posts: 769
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Obviously with the lesser clients who hopefully now will finally be moving to Shell's 7/7=1 strategy.
One could opine that the OEMS have missed a trick. H771 or B771 have a nice ring about them
One could opine that the OEMS have missed a trick. H771 or B771 have a nice ring about them