Effect of the US economy condition on heli pilots
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Effect of the US economy condition on heli pilots
Can somebody please share a little information on what the effects of the present US economy condition on the heli pilots and the aviation sector?
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It's not just the American economy, it's global. But the Americams did create it so we can call it their condition.
Effect to me is like this:
-Many people stop spending money on fancy things like flights
-Companies that aren't diversified will fail fast, jobs will be lost
-As currency values continue to drop world wide, pay cheque value will shrink too. Could see pilots becoming more nomadic as they search for better paying jobs.
-With companies closing and flooding the market with pilots, wages could go down as pilot demand decreases too.
-Kraft Dinner becomes gourmet food, I'm forced to eat my cat later this week.
-Banks tighen their purse strings, making it tougher for students to get cash for training. Schools may take a big hit too.
That's just my thoughts on it though. I take comfort by wish a plague of bees upon Alan Greenspan.
Effect to me is like this:
-Many people stop spending money on fancy things like flights
-Companies that aren't diversified will fail fast, jobs will be lost
-As currency values continue to drop world wide, pay cheque value will shrink too. Could see pilots becoming more nomadic as they search for better paying jobs.
-With companies closing and flooding the market with pilots, wages could go down as pilot demand decreases too.
-Kraft Dinner becomes gourmet food, I'm forced to eat my cat later this week.
-Banks tighen their purse strings, making it tougher for students to get cash for training. Schools may take a big hit too.
That's just my thoughts on it though. I take comfort by wish a plague of bees upon Alan Greenspan.
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With the dollar currently at 1.49(!) against the pound I'm having to seriously re-consider whether I can still 'afford' to go to the US in Jan and train now...
...and with the UK banks bricking it, I can't even get a loan to cover the shortfall!
...and with the UK banks bricking it, I can't even get a loan to cover the shortfall!
Last edited by photex; 12th Nov 2008 at 17:37. Reason: spelin
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Aviation Companies that rely on asset based credit might survive but will have to make some cut backs. Companies that rely on leased equipment and cash flow based credit will be the first to fold (small schools, stand alone utility and EMS outfits ).
Corporate entities typically close down their aviation dept. during tough times. Tours will take a hit because people will put off their vacations for better times (domestically) and better exchange rates(internationally).
If "Drill Baby Drill" becomes a reality, the Offshore industry will do well but not immediately.That is at least a decade away.
All in all a pretty grim outlook all around.
Alt3.
Corporate entities typically close down their aviation dept. during tough times. Tours will take a hit because people will put off their vacations for better times (domestically) and better exchange rates(internationally).
If "Drill Baby Drill" becomes a reality, the Offshore industry will do well but not immediately.That is at least a decade away.
All in all a pretty grim outlook all around.
Alt3.
If the rhetoric of the Obama camp advisors can be beleived the US will be paying a lot of attention to reducing it's reliance on "foreign" oil. This will encompass natural gas, & although Canada is "foreign" I'm sure the US would feel better about buying Canadian gas as opposed to those other evil-doer type countries. As well as expanding exploration & drilling in the US, Canada should also benefit. But this will take time, as the big boys in the oil/gas game are still changing their underwear after the recents crisis. When the dust settles & we all realise that we've managed to avoid a "Mad Max" scenario for a few more years at least, those involved in the energy sector should have enough work to keep the wolves at bay. That's what I told my crystal ball to say anyway!!!
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Thanks guys. Really valuable. It just scared the *&^! out of me when a pilot friend told me stuffs in the US right now about pilots; he said some are unemployed and others even work as caregivers! Just how miserable are some of the pilots if not most? Assuming that to be true btw. Will this eventually spill over to other countries?
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With the price of oil almost halving recently my take on it is you can almost count on oil companies winding things back in the aviation sector.
Operators with shiny new S92's et all, may just be getting the call from big oil......"Now, about that old 212 you parked in the back of the hangar"
Worrying times ahead for all pilots i beleive, but hope i am wrong.
Operators with shiny new S92's et all, may just be getting the call from big oil......"Now, about that old 212 you parked in the back of the hangar"
Worrying times ahead for all pilots i beleive, but hope i am wrong.
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Having said all that...
Some niche markets are flourishing here in the US. We do powerline maintenance and can barely keep up. My company has more than doubled in size in about the last 18 months. Glad I'm not still flying tours in Maui......those boys and girls are hurting big time.
The oil industry must be in a real dither right now.
Transocean has several new rigs on order....have everything working....and there was no end in sight.....until recently that is.
No doubt with the decrease in crude oil prices the oil companies will begin to cut back as those record profits begin to decline. (Has an oil company ever really lost money?)
Unless the current restrictions and phobia about drilling changes....that part of the sector is going to really see a hit. Production flights will continue as before.
Exploration will also see a decrease including seismic operations.
The good news for the USA is interest rates are falling, the exchange rates now favor the Dollar, any talk of the oil business jumping to the Euro and leaving the Dollar is over (too many warehouses full of dollars somewhere I bet) and the economy is at about its lowest point.
Oh....and the Messiah was elected and with a snap of his fingers the magical cure will be found for all this economical turmoil.
Transocean has several new rigs on order....have everything working....and there was no end in sight.....until recently that is.
No doubt with the decrease in crude oil prices the oil companies will begin to cut back as those record profits begin to decline. (Has an oil company ever really lost money?)
Unless the current restrictions and phobia about drilling changes....that part of the sector is going to really see a hit. Production flights will continue as before.
Exploration will also see a decrease including seismic operations.
The good news for the USA is interest rates are falling, the exchange rates now favor the Dollar, any talk of the oil business jumping to the Euro and leaving the Dollar is over (too many warehouses full of dollars somewhere I bet) and the economy is at about its lowest point.
Oh....and the Messiah was elected and with a snap of his fingers the magical cure will be found for all this economical turmoil.
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Corporate pilots jobs are already being affected, especially in areas that grew rapidly, ie Ireland. I have just been made redundant and almost all corporate aircraft in Ireland are on the market or sold already.
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Slight thread creep, but makes an interesting read...
(BTW the "Intelligence Council" is a federation of all intelligence agencies of the USA)
The US "NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL'S 2025 PROJECT" claim in their scenario that it is very likely that
"The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant. "
That will result in:
"Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the US into a difficult set of tradeoffs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities."
With some uncertainty the report also says that our dependence on oil will decrease, because:
"Whether an energy transition away from oil and gas—supported by improved energy storage, biofuels, and clean coal—is completed during the 2025 time frame."
Potential consequence:
"With high oil and gas prices, major exporters such as Russia and Iran will substantially augment their levels of national power, with Russia’s GDP potentially approaching that of the UK and France. A sustained plunge in prices, perhaps underpinned by a fundamental switch to new energy sources, could trigger a long-term decline for producers as global and regional players."
I heard that deep sea exploration would take about ten years to show results... In the light of this report "drill baby, drill" seems to be a unlikely strategy.
Those are just two snippets that actually will have an impact on our industry, I'm sure the informed reader can connect a few more dots.
The whole report: NIC 2025 Project
My own crystal ball sees a continued need for helicopter ops like oil & gas support (not much increase though), a continued growth in HEMS (consolidation of rural hospitals etc.) and a downturn in corporate and tours.
(BTW the "Intelligence Council" is a federation of all intelligence agencies of the USA)
The US "NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL'S 2025 PROJECT" claim in their scenario that it is very likely that
"The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant. "
That will result in:
"Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the US into a difficult set of tradeoffs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities."
With some uncertainty the report also says that our dependence on oil will decrease, because:
"Whether an energy transition away from oil and gas—supported by improved energy storage, biofuels, and clean coal—is completed during the 2025 time frame."
Potential consequence:
"With high oil and gas prices, major exporters such as Russia and Iran will substantially augment their levels of national power, with Russia’s GDP potentially approaching that of the UK and France. A sustained plunge in prices, perhaps underpinned by a fundamental switch to new energy sources, could trigger a long-term decline for producers as global and regional players."
I heard that deep sea exploration would take about ten years to show results... In the light of this report "drill baby, drill" seems to be a unlikely strategy.
Those are just two snippets that actually will have an impact on our industry, I'm sure the informed reader can connect a few more dots.
The whole report: NIC 2025 Project
My own crystal ball sees a continued need for helicopter ops like oil & gas support (not much increase though), a continued growth in HEMS (consolidation of rural hospitals etc.) and a downturn in corporate and tours.
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Thanks Phil, that one is really interesting. And those who also gave their opinions.
I have a question though. Where can a search and rescue pilot like me here in the Philippines possibly go if I decide to leave the military service. Been flying Bell 205A, S-76A and Huey II for the last decade? Can I still go to the US and find opportunities there? Is it still possible with the current situation? Any help anyone?
I have a question though. Where can a search and rescue pilot like me here in the Philippines possibly go if I decide to leave the military service. Been flying Bell 205A, S-76A and Huey II for the last decade? Can I still go to the US and find opportunities there? Is it still possible with the current situation? Any help anyone?
It has been discussed lately. You might want to check out this thread first:
http://www.pprune.org/rotorheads/350...li-pilots.html
cheers eivissa
http://www.pprune.org/rotorheads/350...li-pilots.html
cheers eivissa
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How is everyone finding the Economy Crash?
you're not Greenspan in disguise are you??
Mind you the OZ Reserve Bank have shown themselves to be equally slow off the mark.
.....