PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Effect of the US economy condition on heli pilots
Old 24th Nov 2008, 17:29
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Phil77
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: USA (PA)
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Slight thread creep, but makes an interesting read...
(BTW the "Intelligence Council" is a federation of all intelligence agencies of the USA)

The US "NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL'S 2025 PROJECT" claim in their scenario that it is very likely that
"The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant. "
That will result in:
"Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the US into a difficult set of tradeoffs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities."

With some uncertainty the report also says that our dependence on oil will decrease, because:
"Whether an energy transition away from oil and gas—supported by improved energy storage, biofuels, and clean coal—is completed during the 2025 time frame."
Potential consequence:
"With high oil and gas prices, major exporters such as Russia and Iran will substantially augment their levels of national power, with Russia’s GDP potentially approaching that of the UK and France. A sustained plunge in prices, perhaps underpinned by a fundamental switch to new energy sources, could trigger a long-term decline for producers as global and regional players."

I heard that deep sea exploration would take about ten years to show results... In the light of this report "drill baby, drill" seems to be a unlikely strategy.

Those are just two snippets that actually will have an impact on our industry, I'm sure the informed reader can connect a few more dots.
The whole report: NIC 2025 Project

My own crystal ball sees a continued need for helicopter ops like oil & gas support (not much increase though), a continued growth in HEMS (consolidation of rural hospitals etc.) and a downturn in corporate and tours.
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