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Helicopter Prices - Any Predictions?

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Helicopter Prices - Any Predictions?

Old 10th Oct 2008, 09:39
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Helicopter Prices - Any Predictions?

What is the general consensus on the prices/values of light helicopters in the forseeable future?

If it becomes a 'buyer's' market, what can we expect the popular models to be trading at?
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Old 10th Oct 2008, 09:58
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Fly 7:

Doubt it will become a "buyer's" market anytime soon.

Lots of pressure on OEM's in the form of:

1. Increased raw material costs, especially for turbine engine parts (the exotic metals used in hot sections for example).
2. Increased supply chain pressures, due to high demand for commodities from China, India, etc.
3. High demand for end product in O&G industry (remains to be seen how the oil price drops will affect demand).

All these increased costs will force price increases, not decreases.
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Old 10th Oct 2008, 10:08
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I was thinking more of the pre-owned, private sector, where a helicopter was a 'feel good' purchase when the economy was bouyant, but may now be looking like a an expensive liability.
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Old 10th Oct 2008, 11:14
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Fly 7,

I can only see one direction for this part of the market at present.
Feel good factor is becoming a rare commodity and hence the buyers are going to be fewer in number.
The number of expensive toys on the market generally is going up, just look up something like Porsche in Autotrader and see how many are there.
The stock market is well down and hence people who had paper wealth now do not (just look at the headlines regarding mr Mittal).
Look at the other thread that talks about the flying schools and you can see that there may be a few choppers on the market soon.

There will, of course, be people who are unaffected by the current financial crash but for the majority of us it will mean less cash available for toys.

Due to the current price of energy and the slump in the stock market, I am afraid that the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off.

Conclusion: down

TB

(off to find a high building...)
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Old 10th Oct 2008, 12:07
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I am hoping to pick up an R44 for the right money, cash waiting!
rotorboater is offline  
Old 10th Oct 2008, 12:08
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Prices?

Down.

Activity?

Recession.

Solution?

War or road gangs. (infrastructure bulding)
Wars are just about done over for a while, so I suggest buy a good shovel now while one can be had.
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Old 10th Oct 2008, 13:13
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The number of R44s on avbuyer.com has been going up but the price has not moved much (it has moved a little).

If you want a good deal then why not look for reposessions - the finance providers will more frequently be going out to seize mortgaged aircraft where the "owner" can't keep up with the bills. They are going to trade at "firesale" prices, as the financier wants quick cash.

Call them up or send an email expressing interest in any reposessed R44s.
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Old 10th Oct 2008, 18:05
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Try this US link

Repossessed Aircraft Database - The Net's Premier Site for Seized Aircraft

It does cost a small amount to subscribe
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Old 10th Oct 2008, 18:31
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Don't hold your breath too much on newish R44s in the UK.

A reasonably equipped new R44 Raven II ordered in December 2007 before the Jan and July price rises and delivered in mid 2008 would have cost the buyer about $425k including shipping. In mid 2008 at near $1.98 to the when the helicopter had to be paid for, that meant it would have cost about 215k + VAT + some UK costs.

Cost new has now gone up by $25k (2x $12.5k price rises), so it is $450k.
However factor in the $/ exchange rate today at $1.69, and a new one will cost you 265k + VAT + UK costs.

In other words, a zero hour R44 ordered now costs 50k+VAT more than it did 10 months ago.

No guarantee of support when a lot of R44s are around for sale, but for nearly new, the comparison with new prices is going to provide a lot of support for second hand values.

BW
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Old 11th Oct 2008, 11:34
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Certainly our dollar has taken off like a lead footed brick, dropping 34 cents or so against the greenback in just the last month or so.

every one cent drop means one extra oz dollar in the time life components - per hour- for the R22 , twice that for the R44 of course.

There will be a drop in demand for new machines for sure, then the suppliers will have to take some hard decisions.

BTW, does anyone know whatever happened to all of the Silver State helicopters?
There was enough of them to make a ripple in the little old second hand red book pool.
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Old 11th Oct 2008, 15:25
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Originally Posted by topendtorque
BTW, does anyone know whatever happened to all of the Silver State helicopters?
There was enough of them to make a ripple in the little old second hand red book pool.
In the hands of the liquidator, check out silverstatehelicoptersbankruptcy.com for asset lists.
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Old 11th Oct 2008, 15:52
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Originally Posted by Runway101 View Post
In the hands of the liquidator, check out silverstatehelicoptersbankruptcy.com for asset lists.


Here's the asset list. 177 R22s & R44s are available. That's going to cause more than 'ripple' in the 2nd hand values, shirley?

(And that doesn't include 17 Bells & Hughes that are also available.)
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Old 11th Oct 2008, 18:56
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Just like to add my tuppence worth (before it reduces to half a tuppence worth on Monday morning when the stock exchange opens)

There are already bargains to be had in the piston market, all the prices I have seen for robbos are "negotiable down" and will become more so over the next 6-18 months as the news of this week starts to grip the average small business owner and the paper rich....

However I predict the turbine market will mostly hold its own. The cost of buying (and more importantly - running) these makes them only available to those who have money in their wallet to an extent that everything could crash financially and they will still have their toys....

I wouldn't want to be a new car salesman or new robbo salesman right now!!!
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Old 12th Oct 2008, 14:00
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Anyone know how to buy a machine from silverstate ?
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Old 12th Oct 2008, 15:40
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Don't hold your breath too much on newish R44s in the UK.
I'd tend to agree with BW.

If you're lucky enough to have all of the below;
  1. Cash in an Icelandic bank
  2. Shares
  3. A house or buy to let property
  4. A year old R44
I know which I think is the best risk in the short term!

If you bought a 44 at $2.03 before the price rises you might be feeling rather smug now with the pound at $1.7.

Warning: Helicopters can go up as well as down. Your helicopter may be at risk if you cannot keep it upright!
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Old 13th Oct 2008, 11:00
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Silver State

There were a lot of them, but not many of them were worth buying.

Steve
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