What would you do?
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An interesting question indeed.
I'm reminded of the story about an Air Force base commander who was told that they never had an accident on the Thursday. Thursday also happened to be the day the base had it's practice crash practice. So the base commander decided they would have crash practice every day....
Seriously, I like the question for which pilot is going to have the crash. Answers to that one would be most revealing as the rest of the crew ought to have some idea of who was going to screw up and possibly even why.
But that data would be incredibly dangerous - if an accident did happen involving the named pilot, the lawsuits would never stop!
I'm reminded of the story about an Air Force base commander who was told that they never had an accident on the Thursday. Thursday also happened to be the day the base had it's practice crash practice. So the base commander decided they would have crash practice every day....
Seriously, I like the question for which pilot is going to have the crash. Answers to that one would be most revealing as the rest of the crew ought to have some idea of who was going to screw up and possibly even why.
But that data would be incredibly dangerous - if an accident did happen involving the named pilot, the lawsuits would never stop!
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
One day your Safety Officer walks into your office and tells you "statistically we are due for a fatal accident."
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
Tell him to go away for a coffe and think about the last word in his statement.
On his return, before he has chance to come back with a smart answer, ask him if all the companys CRM training and records are up to date.
Ignoring his smart answer to your initial request, and assuming that all the training & records and the companys incident & accident SOP are up to date, have an early stack, perhaps even call a company BBQ!
By these moves, you have taken all reasonable action to avoid an accident and ensured records are up to date for the inevitable post 'incident' investigation.
If nothing actually happens, at worst everything is up to date in the companys safety dept and you would appear to be a good, social, employee friendly kind of boss.
Problem is though, the fatal accident will now statistically happen to someone on the way home, pii$$ed after the BBQ
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Especially since from a personal perspective, being at near 300 hours TT I'm pretty well smack bang in the 'killing zone'.
The fixed wing industry talk about the Three hundred hour threshold as something akin the bridal threshold, but, if you have a head on you at all, you should be juuuuust starting to think - now -- what is it that I don't know about the mothers'? At about two thousand hours you should be starting to think,- now -- I think I know what it is that I have to learn.
That is of course if you are lucky enough to be in an area of the industry where you are constantly being challenged by ALL of the problems of low level manipulative peril.
If of course you are in an area where you simply fly in straight lines, then you may blissfully sail on blissfully unaware of statistics or their breeding ground, blissfully protected by the modern engineering that we all skite about, you know engines that go forever, etc.
Which brings me back to the original rhetorical, of course there are statistics, more statistics and at the end - damm lies.
Obviously the first answer to Sasless' question is that the saftey office missed his calling and knows nothing about rotary pilots.
As we all know, or should do, of course there IS going to be an accident soon, as we are rheumy eyed introverts by nature and become more disposessed of the idea of 'no pain' by the longer the accident of history has failed to record an accident.
The real answer to the d***head is --, we know that, now f*** off and if we have one tomorrow then we will blame you. By the way is your third party liability up to date.
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Havoc
You are correct, there is a certain element of reporting error in internal self-reports. But the safety manager should be looking for clues both internally and externally and not relying solely on internal metrics.
SAS
The more I think about your question the more I feel your safety manager is playing the victim.
As you well know, the HEMS industry is in crisis HEMS pilot is currently the most hazardous profession in the US and ER doctors are advocating against the use of HEMS except in cases of suspected brain injury. Every time another twisted Lifeguard flight is shown on the news the perception of HEMS, and in fact the entire helicopter industry is degraded. To perform effectively, a manager needs to understand the threats/risks/costs involved in all aspects of an operation; if my safety manager came to me with this statement I would wonder where they have been for the last year, what they have been doing and why they are keeping secrets from me.
I think a better strategy for your manager would have been for him/her to the Managing Director 12 months prior, made a case that fatal accidents are the largest unpredictable and unnecessary cost to the company, and explain that the steady recurrence of accidents is a threat to future business (including examples of direct costs (replacement costs, insurance premiums, litigation) and an estimate of indirect costs (turnover, loss of future revenue). This would be followed by a plan to determine the threats to safety at the operation (analysis of internal/external incidents/accidents using some standardized system such as SHEL-L or HFACS; if you are a HEMS operator, Burt Boquet has already done this work for you) and then a method to review the findings and develop strategies to eliminate/mitigate the biggest threats/risks. These plans would include both costs and quantitative measures to compare against, so during quarterly (monthly?) reviews of these efforts Safety can demonstrate to Management the effectiveness of their efforts. One fatal every thirteen months is pretty harsh; in this example it should be pretty easy to make a business case for safety. If your manager doesnt do it, its only a matter of time before plaintiffs attorneys does the work for him.
You are correct, there is a certain element of reporting error in internal self-reports. But the safety manager should be looking for clues both internally and externally and not relying solely on internal metrics.
SAS
The more I think about your question the more I feel your safety manager is playing the victim.
As you well know, the HEMS industry is in crisis HEMS pilot is currently the most hazardous profession in the US and ER doctors are advocating against the use of HEMS except in cases of suspected brain injury. Every time another twisted Lifeguard flight is shown on the news the perception of HEMS, and in fact the entire helicopter industry is degraded. To perform effectively, a manager needs to understand the threats/risks/costs involved in all aspects of an operation; if my safety manager came to me with this statement I would wonder where they have been for the last year, what they have been doing and why they are keeping secrets from me.
I think a better strategy for your manager would have been for him/her to the Managing Director 12 months prior, made a case that fatal accidents are the largest unpredictable and unnecessary cost to the company, and explain that the steady recurrence of accidents is a threat to future business (including examples of direct costs (replacement costs, insurance premiums, litigation) and an estimate of indirect costs (turnover, loss of future revenue). This would be followed by a plan to determine the threats to safety at the operation (analysis of internal/external incidents/accidents using some standardized system such as SHEL-L or HFACS; if you are a HEMS operator, Burt Boquet has already done this work for you) and then a method to review the findings and develop strategies to eliminate/mitigate the biggest threats/risks. These plans would include both costs and quantitative measures to compare against, so during quarterly (monthly?) reviews of these efforts Safety can demonstrate to Management the effectiveness of their efforts. One fatal every thirteen months is pretty harsh; in this example it should be pretty easy to make a business case for safety. If your manager doesnt do it, its only a matter of time before plaintiffs attorneys does the work for him.
SaS,
I know your question was from a director/managers response... but from a pilots point of veiw, if you try and nick my mojo..f**ck off would be my first response. I do not need some asshole reading my cards
I would fire his arse....................
I know your question was from a director/managers response... but from a pilots point of veiw, if you try and nick my mojo..f**ck off would be my first response. I do not need some asshole reading my cards
I would fire his arse....................
Fucum Lesgo
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One day your Safety Officer walks into your office and tells you "statistically we are due for a fatal accident."
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
Take him somewhere quiet and beat the **** out of him for believing such ****e, and being stupid enough to approach the MD with his statistical bull****
...even Churchill knew statistics are a pile of crap propagated by imbeciles.How did it go...lies, damned lies and statistics...something along those lines.
You make your own safety...nobody can do it for you.
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even Churchill knew statistics are a pile of crap propagated by imbeciles.
http://books.google.co.uk/books?q=hi...G=Search+Books
(I think he was a bit of a fan of the Ultra decrypts too.)
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SASless,
The statement he made proves that the safety officer needs to be fired because he is too stupid.
Anyone who understands statistics (that means most of the ppruners below are disqualified) knows that there is no such logic as "statistically, we are due for an accident."
Why? Suppose you tossed a coin that 50 times, and it came up heads 50 times. Is the coin "statistically due" for coming up tails? Absolutely no, since each toss has the same odds (50 - 50) as any other toss.
Another way to see it is to ask the coin where its memory is, the memory that knows how it landed the last 50 times. THE COIN HAS NO MECHANISM TO RECALL WHAT IT DID IN THE PAST. Only humans try to connect the past with the future in that way.
Similarly, the fool/safety officer should know, the actions his crews are taking are succeeding, since they are not having accidents.
The statement he made proves that the safety officer needs to be fired because he is too stupid.
Anyone who understands statistics (that means most of the ppruners below are disqualified) knows that there is no such logic as "statistically, we are due for an accident."
Why? Suppose you tossed a coin that 50 times, and it came up heads 50 times. Is the coin "statistically due" for coming up tails? Absolutely no, since each toss has the same odds (50 - 50) as any other toss.
Another way to see it is to ask the coin where its memory is, the memory that knows how it landed the last 50 times. THE COIN HAS NO MECHANISM TO RECALL WHAT IT DID IN THE PAST. Only humans try to connect the past with the future in that way.
Similarly, the fool/safety officer should know, the actions his crews are taking are succeeding, since they are not having accidents.
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Statistics are used by most rather as a drunk would use a streetlight...
more for support than for the illumination it gives
more for support than for the illumination it gives
Me, I'd rather colour my statistics with the harsh light of experience,
rather than have it illuminated by anything one might see under a dim street light.
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it may be surprising to you, and others, that in the rotary world the worst area is 900 to 1200 hours. I.E. at the area that you have learnt to manipulate the aircraft very well, and, think that at the same time you are Gods gift to the rotary industry.
But... damn... still 900 hours 'til divinity then
Thread Starter
Ioan.....do remember there are deviations from statistical data....one can become a data point at any time.
Sasless - I think the answer lies in your second post - 'the training guy says they have met all the requirements and engineering says his part of shop is all in order.'
Meeting requirements by ticking boxes a la Health and safety fiasco does not guarantee safety, only covers your ass against prosecution. I have to do an hour a month IF - I can satisfy the requirement by bimbling around the sky with the holds and stab in or I can exercise my IF skills by doing it all stab out with hard exercises dictated by the co-pilot - which is most likely to help me avoid an accident when IIMC?
Any engineering manager who can sit back and say everything is OK is clearly not in touch with the front-line of his engineering empire - there are always issues that need resolving and never enough money/time to do things as well as humanly possible.
If the attitudes you portray really are from an Oz airline then the safety guy is probably correct in his assessment since the management seems complacent because they have merely covered their backsides by meeting legal minimum requirements.
If I was MD I would make sure I visited all the locations, incognito if possible, to see for myself what was actually going on at the coal face.
Meeting requirements by ticking boxes a la Health and safety fiasco does not guarantee safety, only covers your ass against prosecution. I have to do an hour a month IF - I can satisfy the requirement by bimbling around the sky with the holds and stab in or I can exercise my IF skills by doing it all stab out with hard exercises dictated by the co-pilot - which is most likely to help me avoid an accident when IIMC?
Any engineering manager who can sit back and say everything is OK is clearly not in touch with the front-line of his engineering empire - there are always issues that need resolving and never enough money/time to do things as well as humanly possible.
If the attitudes you portray really are from an Oz airline then the safety guy is probably correct in his assessment since the management seems complacent because they have merely covered their backsides by meeting legal minimum requirements.
If I was MD I would make sure I visited all the locations, incognito if possible, to see for myself what was actually going on at the coal face.
Do what I do ...always carry a piece of a wrecked helicopter on board....the statistics for a crash happening under this circumstance is virtually zero..and if it does happen you will have the pleasure of knowing that the AIB will be totally foxed !!
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SAS - don't sit around waiting for the statistics to change
The philosophy of using regulatory standards as a reference for your operarting standards has, unfortunately, one large hole in it! The normal way life goes is that despite our best efforts we occasionally fail to meet or targets consistantly. Sometimes we do well and sometimes we fall short. If the Regs are your template then falling short means busting the Regs. As these regulations are frequently the Lowest Acceptable Standard then busting them takes us into territory which is not only non-compliant but also double-dodgy.
Through the auspices of an effective Safety Management System and a well written Ops Manual it is possible to define higher standards than those specified in the Regs and thereby protect the operation from those 'WHOOPSSSS!!!' days when things go awry. All it takes is ........
The will .......
The money ......
and
The will to spend the money.
Now we are sorting the would-be-heli-ops-manager-boys from the men.
As Whirly says, if you think spending money on a pucka set-up is expensive, try having an accident. It could set your oil company client back between 100 and 150 million bucks and you would pick up a sizeable bill too.
G
Through the auspices of an effective Safety Management System and a well written Ops Manual it is possible to define higher standards than those specified in the Regs and thereby protect the operation from those 'WHOOPSSSS!!!' days when things go awry. All it takes is ........
The will .......
The money ......
and
The will to spend the money.
Now we are sorting the would-be-heli-ops-manager-boys from the men.
As Whirly says, if you think spending money on a pucka set-up is expensive, try having an accident. It could set your oil company client back between 100 and 150 million bucks and you would pick up a sizeable bill too.
G
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the actions his crews are taking are succeeding, since they are not having accidents.
