The end of oil and aviation?
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The end of oil and aviation?
Just read "The Long Emergency" by James Kunstler,2005. He says we are at peak oil production now (or close to peak) and the price of oil will go out of sight soon, as demand exceeds supply. And the oil will be gone in about 30 years.
What do the smart people that work for Sikorsky and Boeing and Airbus etc, think about the future of oil?
What do the smart people that work for Sikorsky and Boeing and Airbus etc, think about the future of oil?
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Well from the article on the BBC today, pigs may make us fly!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6571993.stm
BW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6571993.stm
BW
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Just an opinion.
1/ Consider the future of electricity.
2/ Reconsider the early relationship between rotorcraft inefficiency and the power-to-weight ratio of early combustion engines.
Let the large corporations and governments spend billions of dollars on the research and development of improved electrical storage devices.
Let the rotorheads spend their money developing more efficient rotors and implementing them in efficient rotor configurations.
Dave
2/ Reconsider the early relationship between rotorcraft inefficiency and the power-to-weight ratio of early combustion engines.
~ then ~
Let the large corporations and governments spend billions of dollars on the research and development of improved electrical storage devices.
Let the rotorheads spend their money developing more efficient rotors and implementing them in efficient rotor configurations.
Dave
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This is a huge debate. There are numerous websites relating to peak oil. You can search using the word "Hubbert", the originator of the theory and get lots of results. Also try this site: http://www.theoildrum.com/?gclid=CJj...FSXOIgod5xIQBw
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.. and I just read today that Iraq has a lot more oil than original anticipated and if the new estimates are correct it would become the third largest supplier of oil ..
Beside pig might make us fly, don't forget that if you are a farmer and have plenty of land left over, you can grow your own fuel for your diesel engines. A slight modification on a regular diesel engine, and coldpressed plant oil can make it run ..
And then there is the hydrogen power-stuff they are working on ..
I bet they can make stuff like this today in large commercial scale if they really wanted to, that the technology is ready in it's essence to move on. "They" just need to make the last profits of the excisting oil reserves before letting out too much of new technologies ..
Why kill off a huge and steady income before it's totally gone ??
I wouldn't worry too much. New way of making power will surface in time ..
- madman
Beside pig might make us fly, don't forget that if you are a farmer and have plenty of land left over, you can grow your own fuel for your diesel engines. A slight modification on a regular diesel engine, and coldpressed plant oil can make it run ..
And then there is the hydrogen power-stuff they are working on ..
I bet they can make stuff like this today in large commercial scale if they really wanted to, that the technology is ready in it's essence to move on. "They" just need to make the last profits of the excisting oil reserves before letting out too much of new technologies ..
Why kill off a huge and steady income before it's totally gone ??
I wouldn't worry too much. New way of making power will surface in time ..
- madman
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madman - indeed, the first diesel was designed to run on corn oil! Go figure!
And you're right about alternative technologies - Nikola Tesla had an electric car (based on a Pierce, I believe) that ran for days on one charge. I feel sure the plans are just waiting to surface...... then watch the price of electricity rise!
Phil
And you're right about alternative technologies - Nikola Tesla had an electric car (based on a Pierce, I believe) that ran for days on one charge. I feel sure the plans are just waiting to surface...... then watch the price of electricity rise!
Phil
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Here are some of the geeks playing around with this topic - Nordic Folkecenter = Nordic Peoplecenter - freely translated
Link: http://www.folkecenter.net/
And here is a quote for you, paco - http://www.folkecenter.net/default.asp?id=8826
What said Rudolf Diesel?
"The use of plant oil as fuel
may seem insignificant today. But such products
can in time become just as important as kerosene
and these coal-tar-products of today."
Rudolf Diesel in the year 1912
in his application for a patent; in a time, where
energy crises, climate changes and ozone holes
not yet were discussed
- madman
Link: http://www.folkecenter.net/
And here is a quote for you, paco - http://www.folkecenter.net/default.asp?id=8826
What said Rudolf Diesel?
"The use of plant oil as fuel
may seem insignificant today. But such products
can in time become just as important as kerosene
and these coal-tar-products of today."
Rudolf Diesel in the year 1912
in his application for a patent; in a time, where
energy crises, climate changes and ozone holes
not yet were discussed
- madman
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Some figures that I heard,
Heathrow airport uses 25 million litres of Jet A1 per day and a small airport like Perth, West Australia uses about 1 million litres per day. Trying adding up those figures per day for arround the world.
From what I understand there is still lots of oil, but its just going to be harder and more expensive to obtain.
Heathrow airport uses 25 million litres of Jet A1 per day and a small airport like Perth, West Australia uses about 1 million litres per day. Trying adding up those figures per day for arround the world.
From what I understand there is still lots of oil, but its just going to be harder and more expensive to obtain.
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In the next 30 years, society will move away from engines burning hydrocarbon based fuels and into clean, efficient alternatives. Demand for oil will wane in tune with decreased availability. Oil will become as obsolete as whale blubber. In a hundred years the combustion engine will be a relic, on view in museums next to steam engines. And the world will be a better, cleaner place for it. Already Boeing is experimenting with electric propulsion for airplanes. And electric helicopters won't be far behind. Behold, these are my predictions
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Big universe out there...
The immediate future of energy will become coal once again - there is plenty of it. This will have no impact on the aircraft industry since the energy giants will respond to commercial pressure to convert the coal to kerosine, with the potential offshoot of hydrogen. Liquid fuels offer good energy volume density, and are easy to transport. So far large coal fired industrial gas turbines have not been successful due to the combined problems of tar on the turbine stages and heat exchanger size - however, the potential for coal driven industrial gas turbines remains.
Predictions are that fusion will become commercially viable in the next 37 years anyway, so we just need to pad out until then. Even when this happens there will be chemical means to convert the energy, CO2 and H20 to Kerosine. So even this will not affect the aero industry, as turbines are still practical.
There are many developement projects to make fuel cells more viable, but these will currently just force diesels and turbines, or hybrid combinations, to become more efficient. There are some interesting developments on the horizon, the most promising being this one:
http://www.eurekamagazine.co.uk/arti...l-engines.aspx
Then there is the CO2 problem, which I too was concerned about. The debate is still out, but there is evidence that global warming is a natural function of sun spot activity (linked to cloud formation aparently). My own view is that we'll find out soon enough anyway, but it really doesn't hurt to consider pumping CO2 deep underground to remain in solid form out of harms way (sublimes due to high pressures down there). It is easy to capture and seperate with a compressor, and just takes a commitment of cash. Still politicians seem now to be jumping on the CO2 bandwagon...
Mart
Predictions are that fusion will become commercially viable in the next 37 years anyway, so we just need to pad out until then. Even when this happens there will be chemical means to convert the energy, CO2 and H20 to Kerosine. So even this will not affect the aero industry, as turbines are still practical.
There are many developement projects to make fuel cells more viable, but these will currently just force diesels and turbines, or hybrid combinations, to become more efficient. There are some interesting developments on the horizon, the most promising being this one:
http://www.eurekamagazine.co.uk/arti...l-engines.aspx
Then there is the CO2 problem, which I too was concerned about. The debate is still out, but there is evidence that global warming is a natural function of sun spot activity (linked to cloud formation aparently). My own view is that we'll find out soon enough anyway, but it really doesn't hurt to consider pumping CO2 deep underground to remain in solid form out of harms way (sublimes due to high pressures down there). It is easy to capture and seperate with a compressor, and just takes a commitment of cash. Still politicians seem now to be jumping on the CO2 bandwagon...
Mart
Pie in the Sky folks....sheer folly.
If the farmers start selling their corn to the "Petrol" market....what happens to the cost of animal feed, the price of flour, and other "corn" based products?
If one starts breaking down water into Hydrogen fuel....what about the demand for water by all other users....perhaps bathing becomes too expensive.
Electric vehicles? Where does the fuel supply for that come from? How do we generate the necessary amounts of energy to "fuel" that concept?
I am not a nay sayer on this, but we have to consider the collateral issues while seeking the perfect source of "fuel".
If the farmers start selling their corn to the "Petrol" market....what happens to the cost of animal feed, the price of flour, and other "corn" based products?
If one starts breaking down water into Hydrogen fuel....what about the demand for water by all other users....perhaps bathing becomes too expensive.
Electric vehicles? Where does the fuel supply for that come from? How do we generate the necessary amounts of energy to "fuel" that concept?
I am not a nay sayer on this, but we have to consider the collateral issues while seeking the perfect source of "fuel".
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SASless is right - in fact it takes 3/4 gallon of gas to make 1 gallon of alcohol - for those who think this is sound energy policy, I have a car that runs on water.
And the laughable idea that we will run out of oil is simply not true - as long as we are willing to spend $60 per barrel or more!
What is the real problem is not energy as it is - but how we stop global warming if we continue to burn carbon. Cutbacks on energy use, massive resurgence of nuclear power and wind/tide/solar are all coming. Aviation will use oil products for a long time, due to its density and portability, but liquid hydrogen is an alternative that can work, as well.
And the laughable idea that we will run out of oil is simply not true - as long as we are willing to spend $60 per barrel or more!
What is the real problem is not energy as it is - but how we stop global warming if we continue to burn carbon. Cutbacks on energy use, massive resurgence of nuclear power and wind/tide/solar are all coming. Aviation will use oil products for a long time, due to its density and portability, but liquid hydrogen is an alternative that can work, as well.
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Wasn't it on Robbie Coltranes Trains, Planes and Automobiles and the episode on diesel engines where the figures for efficiency of fuels and engines was something like,
Steam 10% efficient,
Petrol 30% efficient,
Diesel 90% efficient.
I suppose it all depends on ones interpretation of efficiency.
Having just come back from the continent for Easter and noticed diesel a lot cheaper than petrol of all grades, I still wonder how, over here in Bliars Britain, we still allow the Gov't to get away with this completely opposite pricing; Especially as diesel is more efficient, uses less per mile relatively, it is cheaper to get onto the forecourt being less refined and pushes out less carbons than petrol.
$£$£$£$£$£
Steam 10% efficient,
Petrol 30% efficient,
Diesel 90% efficient.
I suppose it all depends on ones interpretation of efficiency.
Having just come back from the continent for Easter and noticed diesel a lot cheaper than petrol of all grades, I still wonder how, over here in Bliars Britain, we still allow the Gov't to get away with this completely opposite pricing; Especially as diesel is more efficient, uses less per mile relatively, it is cheaper to get onto the forecourt being less refined and pushes out less carbons than petrol.
$£$£$£$£$£
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Sil,
That list makes literally no scientific sense.
Steam, with external combustion, is the most efficient means yet measured. over 38% efficiency on steam trains has been measured, and over 42% for steam power plants (where size and weight are less of a penalty.) By efficiency, everyone but your source means the work produced by the engine as compared to the heat energy of the fuel it consumes. Also inherent in the definition is that all engines must throw away at least 50% of the fuel's heat.
For internal combustion, diesels are somewhat more efficient than gas, mostly because the higher compression ratio allows higher combustion temperatures. But supercharged (turbocharged) gas engines are so close that the decision is by weight and cost, I think.
That list makes literally no scientific sense.
Steam, with external combustion, is the most efficient means yet measured. over 38% efficiency on steam trains has been measured, and over 42% for steam power plants (where size and weight are less of a penalty.) By efficiency, everyone but your source means the work produced by the engine as compared to the heat energy of the fuel it consumes. Also inherent in the definition is that all engines must throw away at least 50% of the fuel's heat.
For internal combustion, diesels are somewhat more efficient than gas, mostly because the higher compression ratio allows higher combustion temperatures. But supercharged (turbocharged) gas engines are so close that the decision is by weight and cost, I think.
Sils,
I love showing up at any petrol station in the USA and see the diesel fuel price is somewhere between 20-45 Cents (US) more than petrol. They give us the lame excuse that home heating oil is in demand or the demand for petrol and the refinery industry not being able to cope with both diesel and petrol demand that is the reason.
Our environmentist whacko's absolutely hate diesel engines....and the EPA demands eighteen wheelers pass a snap throttle test for "smoke" emissions (visible to the eye) and ignore the computerized engines ability to sense load, torque demand, rpm, gear position, road speed, exhaust gas temp, and thus vary engine fuel system performance to match the needs of the engine to obtain maximum mileage per gallon of fuel used and at the same time reduce emissions to a minimum.
As you drive behind a modern Big Truck and watch the exhaust stack...nothing but heat wave showing with no visible smoke....but the algorithm for cruise is not the same for idle or low power demand or high power demands.
It would appear to this cabbage headed dunce that if one can acheive 8 mpg with variable engine settings and only 5-6 mpg with a fixed computer setting, that the variable engine would put out less pollution than the other purely because of the reduction fuel consumption in the first place.
What we have here is the confluence of the failings of politics, science, and enviromental hooliganism. In the meanst while...we have not built a new refinery in 20 years, have not built any new Nuclear power plants in about the same time frame, and continue to add "anti-pollution" devices to the vehicles that only work to decrease the mileage rate of consumption and adding to the demand for crude oil. Alas that competition for oil, fires the desire for war and unrest.
I love showing up at any petrol station in the USA and see the diesel fuel price is somewhere between 20-45 Cents (US) more than petrol. They give us the lame excuse that home heating oil is in demand or the demand for petrol and the refinery industry not being able to cope with both diesel and petrol demand that is the reason.
Our environmentist whacko's absolutely hate diesel engines....and the EPA demands eighteen wheelers pass a snap throttle test for "smoke" emissions (visible to the eye) and ignore the computerized engines ability to sense load, torque demand, rpm, gear position, road speed, exhaust gas temp, and thus vary engine fuel system performance to match the needs of the engine to obtain maximum mileage per gallon of fuel used and at the same time reduce emissions to a minimum.
As you drive behind a modern Big Truck and watch the exhaust stack...nothing but heat wave showing with no visible smoke....but the algorithm for cruise is not the same for idle or low power demand or high power demands.
It would appear to this cabbage headed dunce that if one can acheive 8 mpg with variable engine settings and only 5-6 mpg with a fixed computer setting, that the variable engine would put out less pollution than the other purely because of the reduction fuel consumption in the first place.
What we have here is the confluence of the failings of politics, science, and enviromental hooliganism. In the meanst while...we have not built a new refinery in 20 years, have not built any new Nuclear power plants in about the same time frame, and continue to add "anti-pollution" devices to the vehicles that only work to decrease the mileage rate of consumption and adding to the demand for crude oil. Alas that competition for oil, fires the desire for war and unrest.
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SAS,
This study found coal power plants emit thousands of tons of radioactive uranium and thorium into the air for us to breath.(and mercury and much more toxins)
http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/...t/colmain.html
Nuclear plants do not emit anything normally, no CO2 either.
France has the cleanest air with nuclear and hydro.
This study found coal power plants emit thousands of tons of radioactive uranium and thorium into the air for us to breath.(and mercury and much more toxins)
http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/...t/colmain.html
Nuclear plants do not emit anything normally, no CO2 either.
France has the cleanest air with nuclear and hydro.
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
Nick,
I think that because the series was specifically about transport, the efficiency for steam powered engines was quoted to be so low was because the engine was exhausting the steam to atmosphere. With a condensor however, the efficiency will improve.
A figure of 38% for a steam train seems a bit high, as that, as you say, begins to enter the realms of the power stations, and re-heaters. With all the gizmos in place, in theory I believe in htis modern age up to 90% can be achieved.
Anyway,
In trying to locate the programmes transcript, would you believe that Robbie Coltrane played rugby union for Scotland’s schoolboys !
SS
I think that because the series was specifically about transport, the efficiency for steam powered engines was quoted to be so low was because the engine was exhausting the steam to atmosphere. With a condensor however, the efficiency will improve.
A figure of 38% for a steam train seems a bit high, as that, as you say, begins to enter the realms of the power stations, and re-heaters. With all the gizmos in place, in theory I believe in htis modern age up to 90% can be achieved.
Anyway,
In trying to locate the programmes transcript, would you believe that Robbie Coltrane played rugby union for Scotland’s schoolboys !
SS
What a bu***hit, this guy Kunstler is probably working for OPEC or some oil baron in Saudi....They just want us to beleve that the oil wells are drying up in the nearest future.
WHY? So the way they keep supplying less than the demand(obviously to keep the price up) looks better to the world.
The oil industry will die because of other energizers before the oli wells will go dry or at least it will be much smaller than to day.
New energizers are their biggest threat, and all this clues of clobal warming, that force us to use hydrogen,methane or somthing else rather than oil, and then ,how are they going build all these “far out” hotels,buildings and keep the standard of how they live today, we are paying for this s**t....
But this “propaganda” of theirs is working preatty well I must say, I mean only few days after Iran take some British POW they price on your local pump goes up because of the tension level had gone up....cmon.
Bottom line is that this industry will die in the future, and I say because how
un-nature friendly it is, not because there is shortage of oil in the world.
WHY? So the way they keep supplying less than the demand(obviously to keep the price up) looks better to the world.
The oil industry will die because of other energizers before the oli wells will go dry or at least it will be much smaller than to day.
New energizers are their biggest threat, and all this clues of clobal warming, that force us to use hydrogen,methane or somthing else rather than oil, and then ,how are they going build all these “far out” hotels,buildings and keep the standard of how they live today, we are paying for this s**t....
But this “propaganda” of theirs is working preatty well I must say, I mean only few days after Iran take some British POW they price on your local pump goes up because of the tension level had gone up....cmon.
Bottom line is that this industry will die in the future, and I say because how
un-nature friendly it is, not because there is shortage of oil in the world.