Met Forcasting
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 1
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From: UK
Met Forcasting
Is it me or is the standard of TAF's produced by the Met Office getting less and less accurate.
e.g. a main group indicating 9999 and 1500' cloud base with temp groups of 3000 mtrs and 500' cloud base
When what actually happens is 1000 mtrs and 200' cloud base for 12 hours or more.
This seems a little odd or am I missing something?
e.g. a main group indicating 9999 and 1500' cloud base with temp groups of 3000 mtrs and 500' cloud base
When what actually happens is 1000 mtrs and 200' cloud base for 12 hours or more.
This seems a little odd or am I missing something?
Tafs
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 184
Likes: 10
From: Aberdeen
From "World Meteorological Association - Manual on Codes"
"TEMPO shall indicate frequent or infrequent temporary fluctuations to forecast meteorological conditions which are expected to last less than one hour in each instance and, in the aggregate, cover less than half the period indicated "
That is the definition....
"TEMPO shall indicate frequent or infrequent temporary fluctuations to forecast meteorological conditions which are expected to last less than one hour in each instance and, in the aggregate, cover less than half the period indicated "
That is the definition....
Joined: May 1999
Posts: 101
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From: UK
Farsouth,
Correct definition, I wonder why the Met Office don't know this! Since they have moved to the South West corner of the UK the forecasts have definately taken a turn for the worst.
Is it me or are the TAF's now written so broadly that when the Met Office come to compile their stats, they look better than they actually are?
Correct definition, I wonder why the Met Office don't know this! Since they have moved to the South West corner of the UK the forecasts have definately taken a turn for the worst.
Is it me or are the TAF's now written so broadly that when the Met Office come to compile their stats, they look better than they actually are?
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 184
Likes: 10
From: Aberdeen
In some parts of the world (South America, Central America, maybe elsewhere) they often do include forecast temperature,
example would be
TX16/18Z TN05/06Z
Meaning forecast max temperature +16 deg C at 18Z, forecast minimum +5 deg C at 06Z.
example would be
TX16/18Z TN05/06Z
Meaning forecast max temperature +16 deg C at 18Z, forecast minimum +5 deg C at 06Z.
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 42
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From: Australia
Todays TAF.
TAF YPAD 281544Z 1818 06008KT CAVOK
FM23 30010KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN140
FM10 05010KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN140
T 22 24 30 32 Q 1011 1012 1013 1011
In Oz the TAF has a validity of 12 hours, reissued every 6.
Therefore the Temps and QNH's shown are at 3 hourly intervals.
FM23 30010KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN140
FM10 05010KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN140
T 22 24 30 32 Q 1011 1012 1013 1011
In Oz the TAF has a validity of 12 hours, reissued every 6.
Therefore the Temps and QNH's shown are at 3 hourly intervals.
Passion Flying Hobby Science Sponsor Work
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 461
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From: Belgium
Other information sources
In western europe I consider this a very necessary complement to TAF's.
It is systematically very reliable for planning several days in advance (GFS up to 10 days)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
It is systematically very reliable for planning several days in advance (GFS up to 10 days)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
