Urgent Help Needed!!!
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Joined: May 2002
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
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From: Downeast
Urgent Help Needed!!!
Crisis of some great dimension here....a PPruner needs help!
Boss Fellah had me check the weather forecasts for tomorrow...we are to fly some of our Museum warbirds up to Arlington, WA. for the annual EAA Fly-In and Airshow. The rub is we really do not want to expose the aircraft to flying in rain for its adverse effects upon the paint and rotating components.
Now being the dutiful subordinate....I did as requested and discovered the forecasters giving a report that shows the "percentage of precipitation" as being of all things...."50 percent"!
Being a former math whiz...I figure that is the chance of rain on any given day....either it rains or it does not. My Boss Fellah being neither a math whiz nor a person tolerant of wishy-washy answers....is putting me on the spot.
Just what do I tell him....is it an even chance it will rain all over the area, even chance it will rain at each discrete point of the area, it will probably rain........whats a feller to do here?
I wish to appear decisive...professional...get to fly the warbirds....but the ramifications of standing in a downpour and trying to explain the finer points of weather guessing with the Boss Fellah is not a thing I wish to think about....I am quite sure he would find my explanations somewhat inadequate.
Any ideas are welcome!
Boss Fellah had me check the weather forecasts for tomorrow...we are to fly some of our Museum warbirds up to Arlington, WA. for the annual EAA Fly-In and Airshow. The rub is we really do not want to expose the aircraft to flying in rain for its adverse effects upon the paint and rotating components.
Now being the dutiful subordinate....I did as requested and discovered the forecasters giving a report that shows the "percentage of precipitation" as being of all things...."50 percent"!
Being a former math whiz...I figure that is the chance of rain on any given day....either it rains or it does not. My Boss Fellah being neither a math whiz nor a person tolerant of wishy-washy answers....is putting me on the spot.
Just what do I tell him....is it an even chance it will rain all over the area, even chance it will rain at each discrete point of the area, it will probably rain........whats a feller to do here?
I wish to appear decisive...professional...get to fly the warbirds....but the ramifications of standing in a downpour and trying to explain the finer points of weather guessing with the Boss Fellah is not a thing I wish to think about....I am quite sure he would find my explanations somewhat inadequate.
Any ideas are welcome!
Joined: Dec 2003
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From: NW U.S.A.
You are absolutely right there is always a 50/50 chance of rain, because it is either going to rain or not. However, knowing that people in the state of Washington have been known to have webbed feet, one would guess that you have a slightly better than 50/50 chance of rain. Oh and don't forget that Arlington is right over the "Convergence Zone" for the Puget Sound that has to be good for another 10% in favor of rain.
Of course this is but the opinion of one very young kid whose feet have begun to grow additional skin between the toes
Of course this is but the opinion of one very young kid whose feet have begun to grow additional skin between the toes
Joined: Oct 2003
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From: Over here
The 50% means that there is a 50% chance that any one spot will get rain. That being the case, it's almost certain that there will be rain showers, which you may or may not be able to avoid. Sometimes the showers converge into solid lines. ISTR that the weather guessers were a little off once, I just can't remember when. 
Joined: Jun 2004
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From: Hood River, Oregon, US
A locals point of view.
Here's what you do. Fly up the East side of the Cascades to say Wenatchee. Zero chance of rain that way. Check the Wx from there or while enroute. If its raining in Arlington, stay put in Wenatchee until it clears or RON. Repeat as needed. Your 90% there.
Or stop in Hood River and we'll put you up and guard your planes.
DT
Or stop in Hood River and we'll put you up and guard your planes.
DT
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2002
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From: Downeast
Drooping Turns....in Hood River.....why sir...have we met? Sounds like the makings of a Pprune Bash....say the Wildflower Cafe in Mosier? Best Reuben Sandwiches in the Northwest!
By the way...were you involved in Cherry Drying this year?
By the way...were you involved in Cherry Drying this year?
Joined: Feb 2000
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gomexjr, think you need to go and think about probability some more - and stay away from the roulette wheel! You did make me chuckle 
. Following on from Scattercat's comments, according to your logic if I buy a lottery ticket I've a 50/50 chance of winning - 'cos I either win or I don't. Now that's a classic.
SASless, think about the 50% as being a 50/50 chance that it will rain in the forecast area over the duration of the forecast, scattered throughout the area in his terms. Just tell the boss it's an evens chance, but you don't have a crystal ball - if you did, you'd be in Vegas earning a fortune.
So da boss has a choice just like putting the welfare of the warbirds on one toss of a coin or spin of the roulette wheel on lets say black. You've got to make him understand that for a start. Nothing you can do to predict further than that.
However, let him know that as a highly skilled aviator you can get the odds slightly more in his favour by going up and having a look on the day - maybe you can dodge the rain as others have suggested. But if you've got a line in front of you, then just tell him you'll be turning for home if he doesn't want his planes to get wet.
Bottom line that he's got to understand is that there is a risk. I'd say about a 40% chance of his planes getting wet, given the 50% chance of rain, but with you weaving about the sky to avoid. Ball should be back in his court - does he want to take the risk. You've explained it to him, shouldn't be up to you to decide.
. Following on from Scattercat's comments, according to your logic if I buy a lottery ticket I've a 50/50 chance of winning - 'cos I either win or I don't. Now that's a classic. SASless, think about the 50% as being a 50/50 chance that it will rain in the forecast area over the duration of the forecast, scattered throughout the area in his terms. Just tell the boss it's an evens chance, but you don't have a crystal ball - if you did, you'd be in Vegas earning a fortune.
So da boss has a choice just like putting the welfare of the warbirds on one toss of a coin or spin of the roulette wheel on lets say black. You've got to make him understand that for a start. Nothing you can do to predict further than that.
However, let him know that as a highly skilled aviator you can get the odds slightly more in his favour by going up and having a look on the day - maybe you can dodge the rain as others have suggested. But if you've got a line in front of you, then just tell him you'll be turning for home if he doesn't want his planes to get wet.
Bottom line that he's got to understand is that there is a risk. I'd say about a 40% chance of his planes getting wet, given the 50% chance of rain, but with you weaving about the sky to avoid. Ball should be back in his court - does he want to take the risk. You've explained it to him, shouldn't be up to you to decide.
Joined: Oct 2002
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From: USA
This reminds me of something that's stuck in my gord over the years...
I was once conducting flight tests on a deployed USN ship whose CO (black shoe type) was fond of saying;
"No PLAN ever survived initial contact with a HELICOPTER!"
If you go, it'll rain. If not, spf-15 sales will set records.
HOSS 1
I was once conducting flight tests on a deployed USN ship whose CO (black shoe type) was fond of saying;
"No PLAN ever survived initial contact with a HELICOPTER!"
If you go, it'll rain. If not, spf-15 sales will set records.
HOSS 1
Joined: Jan 2003
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From: W'n. USA--full time RV
the sure solution
forecast, schmorecast! Enough of this dithering and russian roulette with Mother Nature. Instead, go Prophylactic!
(Get your mind out of the gutter, now . . .)
Load the bomb bays with enormous rolls of industrial-grade Saran Wrap. Make a terminal-velocity dive to Arlington between showers (all the way from Wenatchee), screech to a halt, have the seminaked buxom greeting-ground-crew roll the wrap over the bird.
Voila! Retire to bar. Wait 8 months for a clear day, depart for dryer climes.
(Get your mind out of the gutter, now . . .)
Load the bomb bays with enormous rolls of industrial-grade Saran Wrap. Make a terminal-velocity dive to Arlington between showers (all the way from Wenatchee), screech to a halt, have the seminaked buxom greeting-ground-crew roll the wrap over the bird.
Voila! Retire to bar. Wait 8 months for a clear day, depart for dryer climes.
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 60
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From: UK
The helicopter oracle, or Airwolf meets Knightrider
Maybe you need one of these:
"Our helicopters said that rain will arrive at 14.35 but said 'I'm 90 percent certain it is going to pass to the north of the circuit and it is going to miss the circuit' and they were exactly right," Richards said. "It missed the circuit by one mile."
Thats an impressive helicopter - I wonder if it has lights flash along the front when it does its weather prediction
Full Story about Jenson Button using helicopters to help his chances in the UK Grand Prix
[when I first read the title of that story, "Helicopter holds key to Button win", I had a totally more literal image in mind ]
"Our helicopters said that rain will arrive at 14.35 but said 'I'm 90 percent certain it is going to pass to the north of the circuit and it is going to miss the circuit' and they were exactly right," Richards said. "It missed the circuit by one mile."
Thats an impressive helicopter - I wonder if it has lights flash along the front when it does its weather prediction
Full Story about Jenson Button using helicopters to help his chances in the UK Grand Prix
[when I first read the title of that story, "Helicopter holds key to Button win", I had a totally more literal image in mind
]
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2002
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
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From: Downeast
Well, the crisis for this weekend is over...
I called upon every weather outlet known to man...even got out the see thru bowling ball and divining rod....and after careful consideration and studied analysis of all the data...when confronted by the Boss Fellah, I made a most definitive statement which he accepted with the best of grace.
I detailed the contents of the various sources, compared and contrasted the data, gave a subjective opinon about just how accurate Met people can be and then made my position clear.
When he asked me "Is it going to bloody rain or not?"...I submitted that for this issue, I was in Sales .... not Management... and that I would have to defer to a higher power on that question.
What was I thinking?
For the good folks at the Arlington Airshow...unfortunately it was a very rainy day...we stayed home but would really have liked to have gone up there. They put on a very impressive show and the EAA enthusiasts show up in mass for that event.
I called upon every weather outlet known to man...even got out the see thru bowling ball and divining rod....and after careful consideration and studied analysis of all the data...when confronted by the Boss Fellah, I made a most definitive statement which he accepted with the best of grace.
I detailed the contents of the various sources, compared and contrasted the data, gave a subjective opinon about just how accurate Met people can be and then made my position clear.
When he asked me "Is it going to bloody rain or not?"...I submitted that for this issue, I was in Sales .... not Management... and that I would have to defer to a higher power on that question.
What was I thinking?
For the good folks at the Arlington Airshow...unfortunately it was a very rainy day...we stayed home but would really have liked to have gone up there. They put on a very impressive show and the EAA enthusiasts show up in mass for that event.
Joined: Dec 2003
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From: NW U.S.A.
SASless - Sorry to hear you weren't able to make it up here. The rain was just enough to keep the temperature down, and it would have been great to see the aircraft....and of course yourself as well.
Scattercat & Maximum - to further expanded on upon my logic and reasoning, which happens to be neither logical nor reasonable. I hit 100% for weekend as I will claim 50% for the rain and I didn't win the lotto again giving me the other 50%, thus adding up to a perfect weekend of being 100% correct
Scattercat & Maximum - to further expanded on upon my logic and reasoning, which happens to be neither logical nor reasonable. I hit 100% for weekend as I will claim 50% for the rain and I didn't win the lotto again giving me the other 50%, thus adding up to a perfect weekend of being 100% correct
